NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 21, 1:38 PM PST, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 1:38 PM PST, 1 hour 52 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
238 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure area off the South Oregon
Coast early this afternoon will track northeast this evening through
Friday. The low is expected to be centered over Southwest Washington
late tonight then shift to Eastern Washington by Friday afternoon.
There wil be a threat of thunderstorms for the Cascades, foothills
and portions of the north interior lowlands late this afternoon
through the evening. High pressure strengthens over the weekend with
daytime temperatures returning to seasonal normals. High pressure
holds through much of next week, which will result in slightly
above-normal afternoon temperatures, especially Thursday and Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday)...Water vapor imagery early this
afternoon shows a complex upper trough in the Northeast Pacific. The
primary low center was located near 42N 127W as of 20Z. A second, but
weaker circulation was noted just west of Vancouver Island and a
third was diving down the back side of the broad upper trough near
41N 139W. Visible imagery indicated an altcumulus castellanus, or
ACCAS, field over SW Washington and extreme NW Oregon early this
afternoon. This typically signals some mid-level instablity which
could lead to thunderstorm development later in the day. Marine layer
early this afternoon holding firm along the Oregon coast, especially
south of about Newport. Marine layer in the central coast valleys
showing little westward retrogression. In fact, cloud edge near
Interstate 5 in south-central Lane County. Southwest wind continues
at Eugene, indicative of some marine air seepage.
Biggest forecast dilemma remains the convective threat. Based on the
12Z NAM model sounding for KPDX and select SPC forecast tools,
have expanded the thunderstorm threat 00Z-06Z Friday to include
much of the SW Washington interior lowlands to the Willapa Hills, the
Willamette valley to near KSLE and east slopes of the North Oregon
Coast Range. The SPC Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity, or SSEO,
shows a few of the higher-resolution models suggesting a convective
threat in the aforementioned areas around 00Z. The SPC SREF
Calibrated probability threat valid 06Z Friday shows a 50 percent
contour over the South Washington Cascades. The 12Z NAM provides some
dynamical support for elevated convection late this afternoon through
the evening, including an 80-100 kt jet and 500 mb diffluent flow
aloft. It appears the best dynamical support for the Cascades will be
just after peak heating. There are some hints that should convection
get going across the north, it could continue beyond 06Z Fri,
especially in SW Washington. However, 12Z NAM model sounding for KPDX
removes all instability, elevated and surface-based, around 03Z
Friday. The SPC SREF Calibrated probability product holds on to a 40
percent contour in the South Washington Cascades 12Z Friday. For now
will leave the thunderstorm threat until 06Z Fri, but evening shift
may need to extend it.
There will be a strong marine surge immediately behind the incoming
low, which will initially flood the southern areas. Expect a
substantial marine layer Friday morning behind the departing
upper trough. NAM sounding for KSLE and KDPX shows cloud tops 12Z Fri
up to near 7000 feet MSL. Some of this likely to be mid-level clouds
above the true marine layer with the upper low forecast to be over SW
Washington. Will maintain lingering POPS across the far north Friday
morning as the GFS shows the upper trough axis just crossing the
South Washington Cascades 15Z Friday. Also kept POPS into the early
afternoon for the South Washington Cascades, primarily near Mt.
Adams. Daytime temperatures Friday will be around 4-8 degrees below
normal. Also, breezy to windy conditions will develop in the Columbia
Gorge near Hood River late tonight, but more so Friday morning, with
gusts up to 35 mph not out of the question. Stable west flow aloft
returns Saturday. Model 500 mb heights rise to
the mid 580s and 850 mb temperatures warm to 10-14C. NAM shows 90
percent or greater 975 mb RH in SW Washington, the far North Oregon
coast and up the Columbia River to near KPDX Saturday morning which
should translate to morning clouds. Not sure how far inland the
clouds will make it, but a strengthening east-west pressure gradient
should aid at least some inland push. Daytime temperatures Saturday
to be near normal. 500 mb heights increase a little more Sunday, with
forecast GFS 850 mb temperatures 15-18C. This would produce slightly
above-normal daytime temperatures. The NAM may be over-doing the
morning stratus or low cloud coverage Sunday morning. Could see some
areas of low clouds along the South Washington coast and coastal
valleys, based on the expected surface isobar orientation, but do not
expect stratus to reach KKLS. Weishaar
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)...Very typical late-July
pattern expected for the long term, dominated by a flat upper-level
ridge. Tricky part of this forecast will be determining the timing of
weak ripples in the flow that deepen the marine layer. Nearly
impossible to get very definitive this far out, but the GFS, and to a
certain extent, the ECMWF, show one such short-wave moving through
Tue night. GFS and ECMWF boost 500 mb heights to the lower 590s
Thursday, which could produce some 90-degree readings in the
interior. One thing to note is the third week of July is
climatologically the time of the first major lightning episode. Does
not look like that will occur this year. Weishaar
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR marine stratus is locked in along the coast and
in the coastal gaps this afternoon while the interior remains
VFR. An upper level low sitting just offshore will push inland
tonight. This will lead to a strong marine push, which is already
showing signs of occurring in the southern Willamette Valley.
Expect MVFR stratus to spread in from south to north starting
this evening. KEUG may see MVFR develop as early as 03Z Fri, with
stratus expected to reach the northern valley TAF sites by 06Z-
09Z. Widespread MVFR conditions should persist overnight and Fri
morning.
The unstable southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching low is
forecasted to trigger some showers and even a few thunderstorms
across the region later this afternoon and this evening. Satellite
is showing convection developing along the Cascades and Coast
Range as of 21:30Z and expect this will expand over the next
several hours. Confidence in thunder is not high enough to include
in TAFS, but the best chances appears to be for areas north of
Salem.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR to continue through most of this
evening. Scattered showers expected to develop later this
afternoon and this evening, with a slight chance for a
thunderstorm. A marine stratus push to bring MVFR cigs into the
terminal sometime around 06Z-09Z Fri, which should persist through
Fri morning. Pyle
&&
.MARINE...Upper level low pres moving across the waters today will
push onshore tonight. This will maintain a weak pres gradient
across the waters and keep winds mostly 15 kt or less. We will
begin to transition to a more typical summer-time pattern on Fri
as the NE Pac surface high begins to rebuild. A thermally
induced surface trough will also develop along the N Calif and N
Oregon coast. This pattern will become more pronounced over the
weekend and remain in place through at least the first half of
next week. This will mean a return to gusty northerly winds, with
strongest winds during the afternoon and evening hours. We will
probably need small craft advisories for wind for the central
Oregon waters each day starting on Sat and continuing through
early next week. The stronger winds will periodically extend
further north into PZZ250 and PZZ255.
Seas will remain less than 5 ft through Fri. They will then
increase a foot or two over the weekend. Seas will increase into
the 7 to 9 ft range early next week, becoming choppy and wind-wave
driven. Pyle
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from
the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is commonly
referred to as the forecast area.