An upper disturbance approaching from the west interacted with a very warm and unstable air mass to produce severe thunderstorms over the west half portions of Upper Michigan on the morning of the 21st.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
An upper disturbance approaching from the west interacted with a very warm and unstable air mass to produce severe thunderstorms over the west half portions of Upper Michigan on the morning of the 21st.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 21, 2:35 AM CST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 435 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 434 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 Forecast continues to be tricky, with a large portion of time dedicated to keeping up with current trends and conditions over the next several hours. The large complex of thunderstorms, spanning from the international border north of DLH into central MN, continues to push east, with the strongest portion on the northern half of that line where the cap is weakest. Short term models continue to do a poor job initializing with this convection, so model forecasts are not a big help. Think that the complex will shift east through the CWA while gradually diminishing. Certainly will see potential for convection along that line to be severe, particularly over the west where instability/DCAPE is greatest. Significantly uncertain with how this morning convection will play out toward the eastern side of the CWA. Next question is how the ongoing convection will impact conditions this afternoon/evening. A shortwave northeast of the CWA will drop a cold front into western U.P. late this afternoon, which should be able to develop at least scattered convection. The best convective potential looks to be over north central Upper MI closer to the larger scale ascent with the shortwave, but can't rule out precip chances across the rest of the area. It does appear that ongoing convection will clear in time for instability to rebuild, possibly in the 2,000-4,000 J/kg range (large range given the uncertainty involved). With around 40kts of effective shear, storms should have no problem becoming organized. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards expected. Storms will clear out late this evening, leaving a dry forecast by late tonight. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 312 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 Nam shows a strong 500 mb ridge over the plains 12z Fri with a shortwave north of Lake Superior that move east. A shortwave trough over the Pacific NW will move over the top of the ridge into the northern Rockies 12z Sat and head to the northern plains late Sat night into Sun morning. Isentropic lift and moisture on I310K surfaces appear across the cwa 12z Sun. Have Friday dry and slowed pops on Sat down until late Sat afternoon in the west. Have the east dry for Sat evening and then have pops in after midnight for all of the cwa with likely pops across the west half of the cwa. Friday looks really warm and bumped temperatures up a few degrees in some places due to downslope winds and other change is have dew points higher earlier in the morning...then bring dry air in slowly. Otherwise, did not make too many changes to the going forecast. In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough across south central Canada into the northern Plains 12z Sun that moves a front through the area on Sun. This trough remains into Mon. Sfc high pressure is over the area on Tue with the front well south of the area. Another trough moves into the northern MS river valley 12z Wed and into the upper Great Lakes. Temperatures will be near normal for this forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 123 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 VFR to high end MVFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. Details for this TAF issuance are difficult to pin down with exact timing of any showers and thunderstorms as model agreement on evolution of convection over the Plains is poor. Overall confidence in any one solution is fairly low, but will include -SHRA and VCTS at KIWD and KCMX for chances of showers and thunderstorms sliding in from the west late tonight into Thu morning. VCSH for convection possibly developing in the afternoon as a weak cold front passes through the area. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 434 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 Aside from the strong convection moving into western Lake Superior early this morning (see marine warnings/statements for more details), expect winds to hold below 20 kts through the forecast period under a relatively weak pressure gradient and high overwater stability. Warm and humid air will flow across Lake Superior today, which will allow fog to form, locally dense at times. More fog is likely late in the weekend as another humid airmass moves over the Upper Lakes. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Voss MARINE...Titus
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 437 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-221200- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE- GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 437 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 /337 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH VERY HUMID AIR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 95 TO 102 DEGREES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE APPRECIATED. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-221200- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI- BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI- EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI- POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI- MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI- GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- 437 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 /337 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST HALF. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SEICHE GENERATED BY THE STORMS ON LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WILL BE MORE PATCHY DENSE FOG AWAY FROM THE WARMER NEARSHORE WATERS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND CAUSE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. LMZ221-248-250-221200- GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- 5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE- 437 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SEICHE GENERATED FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND CAUSE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. 07
The Duluth radar (KDLH), 143 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:49 UTC.
17 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Gogebic County Sheriff reported several trees down along Lake Road near Little Girls Point.
The Gogebic County Sheriff reported trees and power lines down in Wakefield.
There was a public report of several trees down around Lake Gogebic five miles southeast of Merriweather.
Numerous trees were reported down in Porcupine Mountains State Park from thunderstorm winds. A cabin was also reportedly destroyed.
The mesonet station at Wakefield measured a thunderstorm wind gust to 59 mph.
The Ontonagon Emergency Manager reported dozens of trees down in and around the village of Ontonagon, including several down on homes. Power was out in the village for nearly eight hours.
The Gogebic County Sheriff reported numerous trees down in and around Mass City.
The NWS storm survey confirmed extensive tree damage at Emily Lake Campground with over half an acre of trees blown down due to straight line winds estimated to be up to 90 mph. Local reports indicated that the strong winds lasted at least five minutes. Damage included trees down on two campers and one vehicle, but no injuries were reported. The time of the report was estimated from radar.
The spotter at Freda measured a thunderstorm wind gust to 63 mph.
A spotter reported widespread tree damage from Toivola and Donken to Twin Lakes. Highway M-26 was blocked by fallen trees.
The Baraga County Sheriff reported numerous trees down across Baraga County. One downed tree was blocking Highway US-41 south of L'anse.
There was a delayed report via social media of multiple large trees down or snapped on either side of the Portage Canal near Jacobsville. Some trees were down on vehicles and structures.
The Iron County Sheriff reported trees down near Beechwood.
The Iron County Sheriff reported several trees down in the Iron River area.
Law enforcement reported several trees down blocking Beagle Club Road southwest of National Mine.
Several sources reported multiple trees and large limbs down across the city of Negaunee.
Tree down on Metropolitan Road west of Felch. Time of the report was estimated from radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 649547, 649548, 649575, 649692, 649590, 649556, 649549, 649589, 649550, 649552, 649551, 649592, 649553, 649554, 649564, 649586, 649582.