Heavy swell moved in, causing high surf on the southern Oregon coast.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Heavy swell moved in, causing high surf on the southern Oregon coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 21, 8:53 PM PST, 39 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
853 PM PST THU JAN 21 2016
.SHORT TERM...A FRONT OFFSHORE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. MUCH OF THE RAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
TO FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY
TO MODERATE RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH WITH THIS FRONT, AROUND 7000 FEET OR HIGHER, THEN
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREA. ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY FROM
MEDFORD TO ASHLAND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING THEN IN THE SUMMER LAKE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ALONG THE COAST PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. SEAS ARE INCREASING IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND WILL BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO BEACHES AND
COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS ARE SHOWING
DECREASED RAIN OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MODOC COUNTY THROUGH AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
EAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. OTHER AREAS MAY SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY BEFORE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 21/00Z TAF CYCLE...THIS EVENING...RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COAST. AHEAD OF A FRONT,
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SPEED SHEAR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION...THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND QUICKLY AND MOST THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL IN A FEW HOURS FOR INLAND AREAS. SO RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST TONIGHT WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT
MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. -BTL/CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PST THURSDAY 21 JAN 2016...SOUTH GALES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH WIND DRIVEN SEAS
COMBINING WITH A BUILDING LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. VERY HIGH SEAS
WILL PEAK LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THEN LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER EPISODE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE LOW...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE HIGH SEAS BECOMING MODERATE BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER AN APPROACHING FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
RETURN OF CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ON TUESDAY. -BTL/CC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM PST THU JAN 21 2016/
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT AS
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT SURFACE TO THE GROUND. THIS IS
IN ADDITION TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR
FROM THE SHASTA VALLEY THROUGH JACKSON COUNTY. PLEASE TAKE A LOOK
AT PDXNPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO STALL JUST WEST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
AS A RESULT GALES CONTINUE IN THE WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
START MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING. H7 WINDS UP TO 70 MPH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING THEN EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT. ONE AREA OF CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE MOUNT
ASHLAND AND THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS WHERE THE HIGHER ELEVATION
COULD SEE STRONG WIND THIS EVENING. WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE CASCADES...WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND THE ROGUE
VALLEY WILL DECREASE...BELOW WARNING LEVEL IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT KEEPING THE ADVISORY OVERNIGHT.
AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES..H7
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 80 MPH AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE FREMONT
WINEMA FOREST. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE IS THE CROSSWIND ON HIGHWAY
31 FROM PAISLEY TO SUMMER LAKE. WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THIS AREA. IN ADDITION A WIND ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR THE WARNER MOUNTAINS OF BOTH SIDES OF THE STATE. TRAVEL ON
HIGHWAY 140 EAST OF LAKEVIEW...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ADEL COULD BE
IMPACTS BE THE STRONG CROSSWIND.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL COME DOWN
TO 4000-4500 FEET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO
PASS BY SATURDAY. SNOW RATIO IS RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE WARM AIR
AND WE EXPECT ONLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE CRATER LAKE AREA IN THE 1
TO 2 DAY PERIOD AND NO ADVISORY IS NEEDED. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH DRYING ON SUNDAY. /FB
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE DOMINANT
RIDGE FORCING THE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER IT BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH IT, MAINLY FOR THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA
BASIN. THE REAL CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH THE ECMWF BEING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALLOWING
THE RAIN TO REACH MORE AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKER
SHORT WAVE THAT TRAVELS FURTHER NORTH RESULTING IN A DRIER FORECAST.
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF BOTH BECAUSE THEY BOTH COME BACK INTO
ALIGNMENT LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH REGARDS TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
CURRENT CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION COMBINING WITH EL NINO PATTERN TO PROVIDE AN ANOMALOUSLY
WET PERIOD. THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DEVELOP, AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR THIS TO HAPPEN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING ANOMALOUS
PRECIPITATION DOWNWARD, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN MAY BE WET. AN
INDICATION OF THIS PATTERN MAY ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY, AND IT MAY PROVIDE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GEFS IS SHOWING
SIGNS THAT THIS IS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT, BUT THERE IS
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. IF THE CURRENT FORECASTS HOLD, NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ026.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ028.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ085.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ081.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10
PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
CCThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.
The Umpqua Offshore buoy indicated heavy swell that likely generated high surf along the southern Oregon coast.
The Umpqua Offshore buoy indicated heavy swell that likely generated high surf along the southern Oregon coast.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 611123, 611124.