Another in a series of cold fronts brought high winds to portions of the southern Oregon coast and the higher terrain of the Cascades and Siskiyous.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Another in a series of cold fronts brought high winds to portions of the southern Oregon coast and the higher terrain of the Cascades and Siskiyous.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 16, 10:13 PM PST, 4 hours 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1013 PM PST SAT JAN 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW. ALSO, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING THE UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 17/06Z TAF CYCLE...IFR/LIFR FOG HAS FORMED AT
KMFR THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS A STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST WITH SOME SOUTHEAST WINDS MIXING THINGS UP AFTER
ABOUT 09Z. LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR THE
NEXT 6-12 HOURS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE GROUND AND
SOUTH WINDS OF 40-50KT ABOUT 1500-2000 FT AGL. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR ON SUNDAY WITH TERRAIN BECOMING TOTALLY OBSCURED AS PRECIPITATION
FROM THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE TURBULENCE.
SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 945 PM PST SATURDAY 16 JAN 2016...ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. VERY HIGH SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WITH VERY HIGH AND VERY LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND COMBINE WITH
VERY STEEP WIND WAVES TO BRING CHAOTIC AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TO THE
WATERS. VERY HIGH AND VERY STEEP SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND VERY
STEEP SEAS. SVEN/SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM PST SAT JAN 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO
INTRODUCE FOG INTO SOME OF THE OREGON VALLEYS WEST OF THE
CASCADES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. SOME CLEARING THIS
EVENING HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO THE DEWPOINTS AND
PATCHY FOG IS FORMING, INCLUDING HERE IN MEDFORD. THE FOG WON'T
LAST ALL NIGHT THOUGH SINCE WE'LL SEE A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AS
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OUT NEAR 46.5 N AND 138.0 W SENDS THE NEXT
FRONT TOWARD THE COAST. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SOUTHEAST WIND
INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE VALLEY LATER ON, WHICH PROBABLY
REACHES MEDFORD BY EARLY MORNING, THUS DISSIPATING THE FOG.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT, THEN SPREAD INLAND SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY. AREAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE UP IN THOSE LOCATIONS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RISES EXPECTED ON STREAMS, CREEKS AND RIVERS IN THE
WATCH AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH, SO WE'RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINTER IMPACTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM, EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WIND
HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY, PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE. THESE APPEAR ON TRACK AND WILL NOT
UPDATE THEM THIS EVENING. SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM PST SAT JAN 16 2016/
DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE COAST THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THIS EVENING GIVING US A RELATIVE BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME UP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND PEAK OUT NEAR 7500
FEET SUNDAY MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL RUN OFF INTO CREEKS AND SMALL
STREAMS WHICH WILL RISE POSSIBLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS. SEE FFAMFR
FOR MORE DETAILS. RIGHT NOW NO MAIN STEM FLOODING IS EXPECTED, BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AROUND 5500 FEET.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER IMPACT. MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING IN THE SHASTA VALLEY.
WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME, BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE DECIDED TO COMBINE
THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY INTO ONE
HEADLINE. ALSO 700MB WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EAST
OF THE CASCADES AND PEAKING BETWEEN NEAR 70 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
THUS HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND ALSO ISSUED
WIND ADVISORY. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY TONIGHT AND COULD APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY SHOULD PEAK
OUT AROUND 4 AM PST SUNDAY, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IT'S POSSIBLE THE COVERAGE AREA FOR THE ADVISORY MAY BE
OVERDONE, BUT GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN REDDING AND
MEDFORD AND 850 MB WINDS NEAR 50 KTS AROUND 4 AM PST, THERE IS
CONCERN SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN NEAR THE
SURFACE. SEE NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE WINDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 4500 FEET. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTSIDE, THEREFORE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION.
ANOTHER BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY, THEN THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVES AT THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
OUR NEXT CONCERN COMES ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HINT AT A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING INSIDE OF 130W EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
OFF THE OREGON COAST DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE
STRENGTH, TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE NAM, EC
AND CANADIAN SHOW A STRONGER SURFACE LOW WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER. WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE MARINE WATERS, COAST AND
POSSIBLY FOR THE INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. IT'S STILL A FEW DAYS OUT,
SO THERE IS A CHANCE THE MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
-PETRUCELLI
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PARADE OF PACIFIC
SYSTEMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
ACTION EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) WILL EDGE
INTO THE COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RAINFALL FROM THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL AFFECT
MOSTLY THE WEST SIDE AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH COAST AND NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WITH HEAVY RAIN, BUT ALL AREAS MAY GET PRECIPITATION
DEPENDING ON WHAT DISTURBANCES ULTIMATELY ARRIVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE KICKER SYSTEM THAT FINALLY DISLODGES THE AR IS
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. WHILE THIS FINALLY TURNS THE FLOW BACK TO THE
WEST, THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEFT TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA ALL WEEKEND AS WELL. SNOW LEVELS LOOK
FAIRLY HIGH MID WEEK AS THEY USUALLY ARE WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS,
BUT BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEY WILL LOWER WITH
ANOTHER GOOD DUMP OF SNOW LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. -WRIGHT
AVIATION...FOR THE 17/00Z TAF CYCLE...YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING OVER
WESTSIDE TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND RAIN ARRIVES THEREAFTER.
MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH HIGHER ELEVATION OBSCURATIONS LIKELY. CEILINGS WILL LIFT
TO MOSTLY MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS STRONG RIDGE WINDS THAT WILL
PRODUCE TURBULENCE.-SVEN
MARINE...UPDATED 410 PM PST SATURDAY 15 JAN 2016...ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. VERY HIGH SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WITH VERY HIGH AND VERY LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND COMBINE WITH
VERY STEEP WIND WAVES TO BRING CHAOTIC AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TO THE
WATERS. VERY HIGH AND VERY STEEP SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRONG FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND VERY
STEEP SEAS. -SVEN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM PST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ORZ022-024.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ029.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM PST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CAZ080-082.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ084.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR
PZZ370-376.
MASThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Flynn Prairie RAWS recorded several gusts exceeding 57 mph during this interval. The peak gust was 67 mph at 17/0713 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 611634.