Heavy swell moved in, causing high surf on the southern Oregon coast.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Heavy swell moved in, causing high surf on the southern Oregon coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 16, 4:48 AM PST, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
448 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A MATURE FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO RISE
OVERNIGHT AND NO FREEZING RAIN HAS YET TO BE REPORTED.
TEMPERATURES AT KLAMATH FALLS HAVE WARMED TO 36 DEGREES, SO THE
THREAT HAS PASSED THERE. HOWEVER, WE'RE HANGING ONTO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY NEAR THERE THROUGH 7AM PST BECAUSE TEMPERATURES
FROM KENO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CHEMULT AND CRESCENT AREAS
INDICATE FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING
AND/OR COULD OCCUR. LAST UPDATES FROM ODOT WERE AROUND 830PM LAST
EVENING.
FOR SNOW LEVELS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, HAVE DECIDED TO GO MOSTLY
WITH THE ECMWF, AS IT IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS PICKING UP ON THE
INTRICACIES OF THE AIR MASS OVER THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA, KLAMATH
FALLS AREA, AND THE SISKIYOUS. THIS SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CASCADES, SISKIYOUS, AND A SMALL
PORTION OF THE EAST SIDE THROUGH 10 AM PST. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
ADVISORY IN THE CRATER LAKE AREA MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
THE AFTERNOON IF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AS ROBUST AS THE NAM12'S
LATEST RUN INDICATES.
WINDS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, AND SEEM TO BE ON
TRACK AT THE CURRENT TIME.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THIS EVENING, THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS STORM WILL BE WARMER, WITH SNOW
LEVELS BEGINNING AROUND 6KFT AND THEN RISING TO NEAR 7KFT, AND
MAYBE AS HIGH AS 8KFT. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER ECMWF IN
KEEPING SNOW LEVELS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE
DUE TO RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE
PRECIPITATION RATES AT THE TIME OF THE WARMEST PERIOD DEPICTED BY
THE MODELS SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AT LEAST
THE LOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. STILL, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION COMBINED WITH SOME MELTING SNOW AT THE 3000 TO 7000
FOOT ELEVATIONS, WE DO HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT EXCESSIVE RUN OFF AND
LANDSLIDE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF SISKIYOU...JOSEPHINE...AND
CURRY COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT STREAMS, CREEKS, AND
URBAN FLOODING ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. ON THURSDAY A
SIMILAR, BUT COLDER AND NOT QUITE AS WET FRONTAL SYSTEM CAUSED
SOME STREAMS AND CREEKS TO REACH BANKFULL IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, SO
THE CONCERNS ARE REALISTIC. MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN JACKSON COUNTY, AS USUAL, DUE TO
DIFFERING DEPICTION OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A MID-
RANGE FORECAST. IF THE WETTER END OF THE GUIDANCE WERE TO OCCURWE'D
LIKELY HAVE SOME SIMILAR FLOOD CONCERNS IN JACKSON COUNTY, AS
WELL.
WINDS WITH THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE STRONG AGAIN. FOR
NOW, HAVE WATCHES OUT FOR SOME AREAS. AN ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. MODELS ALSO HAD BEEN INDICATING
70 KT 700MB WINDS AND 50KT 850MB WINDS REACHING THE SISKIYOUS AND
CASCADES AND 70 KNOT WINDS AT 850MB REACHING THE COAST, BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF ON 06Z RUNS. IF THESE INCREASE AGAIN WE'LL LIKELY NEED
TO ADD SOME HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR THESE AREAS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
WINDY, BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO.
THE PARADE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND BEYOND.
THE NEXT ORDER OF BUSINESS AFTER THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE
TRACKING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DUE TO AFFECT US ON TUESDAY. THERE
ARE HINTS THAT THIS COULD BE A WIND BOMB, MEANING MOSTLY A WIND
STORM, BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN SEEMS TO INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER WET STORM IS EQUALLY AS LIKELY TO OCCUR. BTL
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 16/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
IN LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR
VIS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY,
INCLUDING AT KRBG. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY AT KMFR AS WELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY VFR WITH ONLY ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST.
/CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 350 AM PST SATURDAY 15 JAN 2016...SOUTH GALES
AND VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THEN
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. VERY STEEP SEAS TODAY WILL BECOME SWELL DOMINATED
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE AND LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. LARGE WEST SWELL WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND COMBINE WITH VERY STEEP WIND WAVES
TO BRING CHAOTIC AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TO THE WATERS. LARGE AND VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
STRONG FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ029-030.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ORZ030-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ027-028.
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ORZ022-024.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
CAZ082-083.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CAZ085.
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
CAZ080-082.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ081.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR
PZZ370-376.
BTL/CCThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.
Offshore buoys indicated heavy swell that likely generated high surf along the southern Oregon coast.
Offshore buoys indicated heavy swell that likely generated high surf along the southern Oregon coast.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 611121, 611122.