Low pressure in the North Pacific brought strong winds to the southcentral area, causing changes in the snow pack in Hatcher Pass. Although the avalanche danger was moderate, an avalanche broke free and killed one person.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
Low pressure in the North Pacific brought strong winds to the southcentral area, causing changes in the snow pack in Hatcher Pass. Although the avalanche danger was moderate, an avalanche broke free and killed one person.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 16, 5:20 AM AKST, 8 hours 57 minutes earlier.
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
520 AM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THIS MORNING BENEATH A COL REGION CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE NARROW RIDGE WHICH HAD BEEN IN PLACE IS
BISECTED BY A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC RESPECTIVELY. THE DEEP NORTH PACIFIC LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS BY FAR THE MORE IMPACTFUL OF THESE FEATURES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT BRINGING RAIN AND GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS TO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND. RAIN AND
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE AKPEN AND THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
PREDOMINANTLY UTILIZED HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND REGIONAL GEM
GUIDANCE GIVEN GOOD OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE BROAD LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY AND
SLOWLY FILLS...WITH THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO
STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
INTERIOR AS IT DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BERING AND
APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DRIVE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THIS
MORNING HAS LED TO SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN WEEKS. THIS
SET-UP IS MAKING FOR A DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENT...SO MANY
POPULATION CENTERS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL INLAND TODAY AS PRECIPITATION MAKES
ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MANY PLACES WILL
START OUT AS SNOW BUT WILL THEN BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
RAIN MIX IN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MOST PART.
THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS NEW SNOW TO BLOW THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS THIS EVENING...SO BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IF TRAVELING THROUGH THERE. SNOW WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE ANY PROGRESS INLAND AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND SOME
CROSS-BARRIER FLOW KEEPS THINGS DRIER IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE DECAYING FRONT WILL PIVOT FROM EAST TO WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW JOGS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK. THIS
WILL FURTHER LIMIT PRECIPITATION...EVEN FOR COASTAL SITES. WINDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THEN OUR ATTENTION
SHIFTS TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF TO START THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STORM FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE RESULTING IN MOISTURE SPREADING OVER
INTO THE SOUTHWEST REGION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN EASTERLY JET STREAK OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD ANY MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ALONG THE
CHAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY SUNDAY WITH
WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE
BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING MORE COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SURROUND A
NORTHWESTERLY MOVING LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO
THE AREA. MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON DIVERGED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH THIS LOWS TRACK...FROM AS FAR AS EAST AS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE OR AS FAR WEST AS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON MONDAY. SINCE
THEN THE 6Z GFS AND NAM HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FURTHER WEST SOLUTION...BUT SINCE THIS MODELS HAVE JUST BEGUN
TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE MINIMAL
OVERNIGHT.
AFTERWARDS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND SOUTHERN BERING WILL PERSIST IN THAT GENERAL LOCATION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE BROADER CIRCULATION.
FOR THE GULF COASTAL AREAS THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
GULF UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FURTHER WEST...WEAK TROUGHS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND OUT OVER BRISTOL BAY. AS
WE MOVE INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK SOME ADDITIONAL BIGGER SYSTEMS
WILL SPIN UP ALONG THE STRONG JET STREAM TO THE SOUTH AND PERHAPS
START A GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT BRINGING THE STORM TRACK FURTHER
NORTH.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 127 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160
165 170 171 172 173 179 180 181 185.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 181 185.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DEK/JR1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.
A snowboarder triggered an avalanche on Skyscraper mountain in Hatcher Pass Recreation Area. He was buried under 7 1/2 feet of snow and perished.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche, Matanuska Valley | 2016-01-16 | 25 | Male | Outside/Open Areas | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 616171.