Funnel Cloud in Oregon, April 24, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
222 PM PDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNBREAKS...PLENTY OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH SMALL HAIL
AND/OR A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER. COOL AIR ALOFT HAS ALSO LOWERED THE
SNOW LEVEL TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...WHERE A COUPLE MORE INCHES
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER TONIGHT AS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE FOR LESS SHOWER COVERAGE
MONDAY THEN DRIER WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS COMES TUE NIGHT AND WED AS A SPLITTING SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR LATER NEXT WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLASSIC SPRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE TODAY...WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT NEAR THE
OREGON COAST. WITHIN THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL...20Z RAP ANALYSIS
STILL SHOWS 500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -33 DEG C...PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SW WA/NW OR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGER ONES PRODUCING PEA-SIZED HAIL AND/OR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO. AS EXPECTED THE CELLS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN PULSE-TYPE WITH LITTLE
TO NO ORGANIZATION. MOST ARE ONLY LASTING THE FIRST UPDRAFT CYCLE
BEFORE COLLAPSING BACK DOWN ON THEMSELVES. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION FROM HILLSBORO TO EUGENE...
MARCHING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA...BUT IT
IS DOUBTFUL IT WILL DO MUCH OTHER THAN PRODUCE A COUPLE AREAS OF
SMALL HAIL AND A COUPLE STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SIMILAR MAINLY PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET BEFORE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY STAND IN SHARP CONTRAST TO WHAT THE REGION HAS
FELT FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH OF APRIL...WE MAY ACTUALLY END UP BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN THE
LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS ARE DOWN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES...BUT MOST OF
THE SNOW SEEMS TO BE MELTING EITHER ON CONTACT WITH THE ROADS OR
SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. WITHOUT THE FAIRLY STRONG LATE APRIL SUNSHINE...
SNOW SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE EASIER TIME ACCUMULATING ABOVE 3500 FT
TONIGHT. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCH DUSTING
AT TIMES...BUT OTHERWISE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

12Z GFS SHOWS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW OPENING UP INTO AN ENLONGATED
TROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MAKING VERY LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS.
REMNANT COOL AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY...
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARMER
AIR WILL ALREADY BE MOVING IN ALOFT BY AFTERNOON...KEEPING ANY
CONVECTION SHALLOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. BY MONDAY
NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO BRING AN
END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...YIELDING A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE
LATE APRIL DAY TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT THE STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL REPLACE THE CURRENT GULF OF ALASKA
LOW...WHILE SENDING A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE U.S. WEST COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD SPLITTING THIS
SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ITS
ENERGY HEADING SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA. STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE DISTRICT TUE NIGHT/WED...
THOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL IN THE
CASCADES...PERHAPS A LITTLE DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES ABOVE PASS
LEVEL.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE IN THE WEAKLY ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PARTICULARLY IN THE CASCADES SOUTH OF MT HOOD...BEFORE COMING TO AN
END BY EARLY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE A GENERALLY DRY END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY NEXT
WEEKEND.  CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS BUT ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. SMALL HAIL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ABOUT 02Z MON.
EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH MON BUT THERE MAY BE LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS MON MORNING.  THE CASCADES LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
OBSCURED TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WILL ALSO SEE A THREAT OF TSRA THRU 03Z MON WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AND VIS. /MH

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL EXPECT GUSTS TO 20 KT
IN THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WINDS EASE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHING LATE TUE OR WED...BUT IMPACTS LOOK TO
REMAIN MINIMAL. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE
IN THE WEEK AS THERMAL LOW PRES BUILDS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN OREGON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.

SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 8 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 10 FT BY NOON TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS LOOK
TO FALL BELOW 10 FT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. /MH /64

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO
     10 AM PDT MONDAY.

&&

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
409 PM PDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     10 S ALBANY             44.47N 123.09W
04/24/2016                   LINN               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED BY TRAINED SPOTTER ALONG
            INTERSTATE 5 10 MILES SOUTH OF ALBANY, OR

&&

CULLEN