Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, September 7, 2016

Name: Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, September 7, 2016
Start: 2016-09-07T10:25
End: 2016-09-07T13:49
Location: North Dakota

September 7, 2016 · NWS BIS · 4 events in 2 counties and zones

A strong short wave trough approached central North Dakota and combined with a moist and unstable air mass to produce thunderstorms, with a few becoming severe over south central North Dakota.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.

A strong short wave trough approached central North Dakota and combined with a moist and unstable air mass to produce thunderstorms, with a few becoming severe over south central North Dakota.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 7, 7:00 AM MST, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 7, 7:00 AM MST, 3 hours 25 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
900 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016

Convection continues to push into western North Dakota with the main
line sliding over the Montana/NoDak border. Parameters are still
on tap for severe potential over southern locations, particularly
over south central ND into the southern James River Valley. Latest
high res guidance continues to show the stronger helicity pushing
through these areas mid-day into the mid-afternoon bringing the
potential tornadic threat. Minimal changes needed for mid-morning
update.

UPDATE Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016

The 06-10 UTC CAM suites have a good handle on the ongoing
convection this morning as expected in a strongly forced
environment and will follow their consensus solutions for the
remainder of the day. The severe thunderstorm threat in a high
shear/low CAPE environment remains unchanged across the south
central. The 10 UTC RAP continues its trend of depicting strong
low level shear around 25 kts, 0-1 km helicity in excess of 200
m2/s2 and very low LCLs across the south central and James River
Valley this afternoon. This draws particular attention to the
potential tornadic threat with any organized convection in these
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016

Focus in the short term will be on the potential for severe
weather south central into the James river valley this afternoon.

A well advertised upper level trough will move through the
Northern Plains today with a frontal boundary moving west to east
across the region. Showers and thunderstorms will move into
western North Dakota around 12 UTC and proceed west through the
day.

The latest short range model solutions bring a line of storms into
the Bismarck Mandan area around 17 UTC. This is potentially the
time when stronger storms may begin to develop in south central
North Dakota and north central South Dakota. Deep layer shear
values will be more than enough to support severe storms at this
time with values around 40 knots, however CAPE will be minimal.
Also with the early onset of storms the chances for severe storms
around Bismarck and points south along the Missouri river will be
limited.

East of Bismarck in the James river valley the later onset of
storms will allow for more surface heating, however CAPE values
will still remain on the lower side. Shear profiles on the other
hand will be more impressive with deep layer shear from 40 to 50
knots and low level shear enough to support a risk of tornadoes.
This lines up with the Storm Prediction Center slight risk area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016

Quiet weather expected to start Thursday before the next
disturbance pushes into the area bringing chances for
showers/storms. Weak ridging develops for the weekend bringing dry
conditions through Sunday afternoon. Next fast moving wave comes
through Sunday night into Monday bringing precipitation chances.
Models are hinting at the first cold airmass of the fall pushing
in Monday into Tuesday. Will have to keep an eye on this as if it
develops we can expect much cooler temperatures during that
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016

Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
to enter western North Dakota between 12-13 UTC this morning, and
spread east through the late morning and afternoon. MVFR/IFR
conditions in thunderstorms are expected. A few storms could be
strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds, especially
across south central North Dakota.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...AYD

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 7, 6:38 AM MST, 3 hours 47 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
838 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>033-040>044-081345-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-
ADAMS-
838 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 /738 AM MDT WED SEP 7 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ034>037-045>048-050-051-081345-
MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-
MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
838 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016 /738 AM MDT WED SEP 7 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 7, 6:42 AM MST, 3 hours 43 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
842 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

NDZ001-071415-
DIVIDE ND-
842 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN DIVIDE COUNTY
UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

AT 842 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORTUNA TO 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WILDROSE. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROSBY...NOONAN AND AMBROSE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4900 10294 4864 10296 4874 10367 4900 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 1342Z 207DEG 25KT 4882 10360 4870 10299

CJS

Special weather statement, Sep 7, 7:50 AM MST, 2 hours 35 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

NDZ002-071515-
BURKE ND-
950 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY UNTIL
1015 AM CDT...

AT 950 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
COLUMBUS...OR 22 MILES EAST OF CROSBY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...PORTAL AND LARSON.

LAT...LON 4900 10254 4881 10266 4884 10294 4899 10294
      4900 10293
TIME...MOT...LOC 1450Z 188DEG 18KT 4891 10280

CJS

Special weather statement, Sep 7, 9:19 AM MST, 1 hour 6 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1019 AM MDT WED SEP 7 2016

NDZ041-044-071700-
ADAMS ND-HETTINGER ND-
1019 AM MDT WED SEP 7 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM MDT...

AT 1019 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF REGENT TO 4 MILES WEST
OF HETTINGER. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HETTINGER...MOTT...REGENT...HAYNES...BURT...BUCYRUS...
HAVELOCK AND BENTLEY.

LAT...LON 4595 10287 4649 10275 4663 10215 4663 10206
      4628 10205 4628 10200 4595 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 1619Z 269DEG 33KT 4645 10269 4598 10273

CJS

Special weather statement, Sep 7, 10:03 AM MST, 22 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1203 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

NDZ034-041-042-071800-
HETTINGER ND-MORTON ND-GRANT ND-
1203 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN HETTINGER...
GRANT AND SOUTHWESTERN MORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT/NOON MDT/...

AT 1202 PM CDT/1102 AM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES WEST OF HEART
BUTTE DAM TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOTT. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...ALMONT...HEART BUTTE DAM...BURT...
LARK...RALEIGH...LEITH...HEIL...BENTLEY AND ST. GERTRUDE.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 4622 10224 4661 10229 4663 10217 4663 10210
      4664 10210 4678 10132 4620 10129
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 259DEG 31KT 4661 10221 4624 10214

CJS

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:44 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Grant

When: September 7, 10:25 AM MST to 10:28 AM MST
Where: Grant County, 13.96 mi NNW of Elgin
Measured: 0.75 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 46.590, -101.950

Thunderstorm Wind, Grant

When: September 7, 10:45 AM MST to 10:48 AM MST
Where: Grant County, 6.79 mi NW of Carson
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 46.490, -101.670

The public estimated thunderstorm wind gusts of 60 mph.

Hail, Burleigh

When: September 7, 1:45 PM CST to 1:48 PM CST
Where: Burleigh County, 0.47 mi W of Sterling
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 46.820, -100.290

Thunderstorm Wind, Burleigh

When: September 7, 1:45 PM CST to 1:49 PM CST
Where: Burleigh County, 0.47 mi E of Sterling
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 46.820, -100.270

The public estimated thunderstorm wind gusts of 60 mph.

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in North Dakota in 2016 Every state in 2016 This day in weather history Warnings in North Dakota, September 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 657968, 657969, 657970, 657971.