A deep upper level low approached the region with strong instability and deep layer shear developing ahead of it. A severe linear complex developed over Montana, and pushed into northwest and north central North Dakota.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A deep upper level low approached the region with strong instability and deep layer shear developing ahead of it. A severe linear complex developed over Montana, and pushed into northwest and north central North Dakota. Strong winds became the primary threat, with the strongest wind gusts of around 75 mph occurring at the Williams County Fairgrounds in Williston. Many tents were toppled.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 24, 7:35 PM CST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 835 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 821 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Update to adjust pops to the latest observed radar trends through 01 UTC, and the 21-00 UTC HRRR/HRRRX which have well assimilated the linear complex across northeast Montana. Expect the line to cross into northwest North Dakota between 0230-0300 UTC. See SPC MCD #1048 for details regarding the large hail and damaging wind threat with this complex. It should also be noted as this complex enters a more moisture rich environment across northwest North Dakota, LCLs do lower with around 150 m2/s2 of 0-1km helicity and 15 kts of 0-1km shear. This would support a possible tornado threat, especially with any discrete segment of the overall complex. Still some uncertainty across southwest North Dakota where convective coverage will be lower, however, isolated convection across southeast Montana that has had a hard time maintaining itself will be encountering a more supportive environment for organization in North Dakota. UPDATE Issued at 528 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Quick update to issue severe thunderstorm watch 296 for much of western North Dakota valid through 06 UTC. An extension of the watch into the north central may be needed later this evening per trends in the 18-21 UTC CAM suites. Overall, it will likely be another 3-4 hours for convection to propagate into western North Dakota from Montana with strong upper level forcing ahead of the deep upper level low complemented by the surface cold front. Across the central, while the 21 UTC RAP suggests an uncapped environment with strong convective parameters spaces, forcing is weak and the scenario suggested in the operational HRRR of initiating strong convection, while a non-zero threat, is not supported by the greater CAM suite. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 The main highlights for the short term forecast include strong to severe storms this evening west and widespread late tonight...then strong westerly winds on Saturday. The surface low center was near Hettinger/Black Hills SD this afternoon. Southeasterly winds ahead of the low continued to advect low level moisture into our region...with surface dewpoints well into the mid 60s and lower 70s across central and into northwestern North Dakota. Low level instability continued to increase with surface based CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/Kg...but CIN values of 50- 100 J/Kg reflect the well established strong thermal cap. Latest meso analysis suggests H700 temperatures of +14C in southwestern North Dakota and +10 over northern North Dakota. This cap should continue through the afternoon, which should inhibit convection. Some models suggest no convection this afternoon in North Dakota...while a couple models still suggest some convection at the boundary between the western edge of the low level jet, the surface dewpoint boundary between lower 60s southwest and upper 60s/70s to the east and north. The area in question would be mainly east of Bismarck to the James Valley and northward towards the Turtle Mountains and Devils Lake basin. Thus will keep the slight chance mention of afternoon thunderstorms in the Turtle Mountains area but also bring the slight mention farther south into the Stutsman/Logan/LaMoure area for late afternoon. Tonight all models are in good agreement regarding thunderstorms developing in central Montana late this afternoon/evening...and moving into far western North Dakota around 8 pm mdt/9 pm cdt...spreading into central North Dakota after midnight, with scattered thunderstorms lingering in central North Dakota Saturday morning. High res and synoptic models agree that the best chance for severe storms will be this evening and in the early morning hours - mainly over western and north central North Dakota. The more widespread thunderstorms are still expected to be mainly north of I- 94. This convection is associated with the large upper level impulses out ahead of the main upper low, which is progged to be centered over southwestern Saskatchewan daybreak Saturday morning, and moving east into southern Manitoba by Saturday evening. As the associated cold front enters western North Dakota after midnight, strong west/northwest winds will initially push into the southwest part of the state. Wind speeds of 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible behind the front and especially if enhanced by thunderstorms. There may be a lull in wind speeds around daybreak, but winds should pick back up late morning as surface winds link with winds aloft around 40-45 knots at H850. Expect winds may link up to H700 at times. Issuing a wind advisory for the far southwest beginning around 3 am mdt...and for the rest of the area along and south/west of the Missouri River...including Lake Sakakawea. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Main upper level low continues to move east into southwestern Ontario by Sunday evening. Gusty west winds expected to continue on Sunday...but not as strong as Saturday. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected across the north but the bigger impacts are expected from wind behind the system. High temps from Sunday through Tuesday will be mainly in the 70s, with a gradual warm up by mid-week to the 80s. There is still a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday with the long range models depicting a shortwave moving through the northwest flow aloft. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 821 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016 Severe thunderstorms are expected to impact KISN between 03-05 UTC, and possibly KMOT between 04-06 UTC. Large hail, damaging winds and IFR conditions are possible. Elsewhere across western and central North Dakota, thunderstorm coverage will be much lower through the night. MVFR stratus may develop at KISN/KMOT late tonight into Saturday morning. Westerly winds with gusts of 30 to 40 kts will begin late tonight southwest and spreading over all of the west and central Saturday. && .BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Saturday for NDZ017>021-031>034-042-045. Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM MDT Saturday for NDZ040-041-043- 044. && UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...AYD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 820 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-260130- DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD- MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS- FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER- STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN- LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY- 820 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 /720 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AFTER 9 PM CDT...8 PM MDT...AND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS. AN TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE VERY WINDY SATURDAY...WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN MANY AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. SEE WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH ENOUGH WIND SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM LAYER OF AIR ALOFT CALLED A CAPPING INVERSION MAY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF BREAKING THAT CAP...AND THAT IN TURN MAY ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE OUT OF MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 9 PM CDT...8 PM MDT. AYD
The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 206 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:04 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind, 3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Estimated 75 mph thunderstorm wind gusts occurred at the Williams County Fairgrounds. The Williams County Fair was ongoing at the time, and almost all the large tents set up were blown over. No injuries or fatalities occurred.
Emergency Management estimated that thunderstorm winds were gusting up to 60 mph.
A trained spotter estimated that thunderstorm winds were gusting to 60 mph.
The public estimated that thunderstorm winds were gusting up to 70 mph.
The strong thunderstorm wind gusts were estimated by the public.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, June 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 643186, 643187, 643188, 643182, 643189, 643190, 643183, 643184, 643185, 643191, 643192, 643193, 643194.