Flash Flood and Hail in North Dakota, July 9 to 10, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
310 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Still quite a bit of uncertainity in terms of convective trends
tonight into sunday. Broad 850 mb warm advection over central ND
in region of sfc-850 mb moisture advection. Activity focused in
southwestern Manitoba. Earlier activity that moved east of
Bismarck dissipating but a few showers trying to reform nr lisbon
nd. But in the past half hour storms have fired in a zone south of
rugby to east of harvey in central ND in this 850 mb warm adv
zone. Now these storms should move northeast but how much will the
grow in coverage as we head into the evening is greatly unknown.
earlier short range model runs indicated chc of storms in Manitoba
moving southeast in a bow. Latest HRRRx for the past few runs have
nixed that idea but also doesnt have current convection
developing. It ties convection to what will develop in Montana or
NW South Dakota and moves that east. For now will broadbrush pops
for this activity thru tonight. Any morning convection will lift
north and east as warm 700 mb temps 14-16C move into central/ern
nd midday and aftn Sunday. Thus dont expect anything during the
day over most of ern nd and the RRV once any morning activity is
gone.

Also for Sunday aftn high temps in the low 90s and dew pts in the
low 70s in far southwestern fcst area gives heat indices over 100
and this warrants a heat advisory sunday aftn. coord with abr/bis.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Convection may be ongoing across western North Dakota around 00z
Monday. The low level jet really cranks up Sunday night, with models
showing in excess of 50 knots at times. Fairly decent model
agreement in depicting best pcpn chances across the northern FA. For
this reason bumped up pcpn chances into at least the likely range for
areas north of highway 2. Moving ahead into Monday, there will be
some issues to work out yet. For starters, the SPC day 3 convective
outlook places areas along and east of the Red River in a slight
risk. Question number one will be what happens with the Sunday night
and early Monday morning convection, and how fast it moves east of
the FA. Question 2 will be the warm 700mb temps over the FA.
ECMWF shows 700mb temps warming to nearly +14C over the central FA by
18z Monday, while the GFS is even a tad warmer. So will need to
break the cap, and once or if this happens storms would quickly
become severe. Models are still showing a lot of spread in possible
solutions, so will have to see what later runs have in store.

There could be somewhat of a break in pcpn for most of the FA Monday
night, as the upper low tracks into southwest Manitoba. As the low
shifts toward Winnipeg on Tuesday, it looks to spread some
wraparound pcpn mainly into areas north of Interstate 94. Other
issue for Tue will be strong or gusty west winds. These gusty winds
should decrease somewhat Tue night, but still pretty breezy. Pcpn
chances should slide into NW MN overnight. For the Wed to Sat time
frame the FA returns to NW flow aloft. Overall temps will take a
dive to the cooler side of normal, with severe chances looking
fairly low. Forecast maintains a lot of rain chances, but overall it
will not be a washout.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

vfr conditions thru this evening. unknown is coverage of storms
and with high uncertainity kept any mention out for now. after 06z
looks like moist southerly flow to cause lower ceilings to
develop...esp east of the red river. MVFR category in fcst for now
mostly 09z-10z afterwards.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ049-052.

MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...Riddle

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
412 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-100915-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
412 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND A
MARGINAL RISK TO THE EAST. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY MAY
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES UP TO 95 TO 100 FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AT
TIMES.

JAM