Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, July 4, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
107 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

No sig updates planned this early afternoon. Latest SPC SWODY1
/convective outlook/ is still on track with slight risk for severe
wx beginning around 21 in the DVL Basin and shifting steadilyeastward
through early evening. Latest SPC-HRRR runs continue with such
timing... bringing activity into the RRV corridor from 23z through
01z... then shifting any strong to severe tstm activity into the
MN Lakes country and northwest MN thereafter.

UPDATE Issued at 945 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Weak shortwave trof moving across southcentral MB attm... with
scattered deep convection along the trof axis from Winnipeg back
towards Minot. This shortwave appears to be outpacing the surface
trof which is still anchored a bit further west... and is largely
dying out over the more stable air currently across the northern
Red River Basin. Current prognosis holds...that partly to mostly
sunny skies should grace the Red River Basin and most of northern
MN through mid afternoon... with scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms developing from later afternoon into early evening
across the fa. No sig updates to the forecast package are
expected this forenoon.

UPDATE Issued at 648 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Pushed pops back to the west this afternoon. Latest convective
model guidance indicating possible storm initiation later this
afternoon just west of the fa then propagating east. Also adjusted
cloud trends based on latest satellite imagery.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Main impacts will be severe threat the next two days across
portions of the forecast area. Global models in general agreement
through the period with main features. As for the near term
RAP/HRRR way too wet with current dissipating rain band and will
follow NAM12 which is lining up best with current radar returns.

As mentioned above not much left of current band of -shra with
most areas not even reporting a mid level cig. With clearing
working into the valley will keep forecast dry into early
afternoon. As for the severe threat this afternoon a warm and
increasingly humid day expected. Favorable low level moisture flux
should increase dewpoints into the 60s this afternoon. Solar
combined with thermal ridge axis nosing into the FA should lift
temperatures well into the 80s with some low 90s possible. All
this should increase convective parameters with models soundings
indicating sufficient instability/shear and MU Cape values to
2000j/kg by late afternoon. Approaching surface boundary not
particularly sharp however will be entering the western fa late
this afternoon. Water vapor loop indicating a modest mid level
impulse in E Mt that should aid in convective initiation later
this afternoon. Convective temperatures in the mid/upper 80s so
what CIN there is should diminish allowing for storm development
with severe certainly possible. Primary hazards look to be large
hail and damaging winds. Precipitable Water values from 1 to 1.5
inches so some heavy rainers also possible.

Convection should propagate east during the evening. Should see a
downturn in strength with lack of low level jet. Not much cooling
behind boundary so temperatures should not drop blo 60.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

Mid level flow transitions to more of SW flow aloft Tuesday.
Surface low organizes over central SD with E-W warm front through
central Mn. Mid level support does not look strong however with
strong low level forcing and favored convective parameters should
see another round of strong storms. Based on current expected boundary
locations the favored hazard area looks to be the southern
forecast area.

Should see a break in storms Wednesday as favored convective
parameters shift to our south. Our forecast area looks to be on
the eastern/northern edge of any forcing for pcpn with next system
Wednesday night.

Thursday to Sunday night...Model timing and strength of robust short
wave energy in zonal flow the big question mark in the forecast for
the end of the week and into next weekend. Nonetheless will see the
potential for widespread PCPN thursday...may be ongoing if the 00z
EC is correct with its quicker timing. If the system is slower then
the PCPN threat will linger into Friday with a dry Saturday and
slight CHC Sunday for convective activity.  Once the wave moves
through cooler temperatures are expected with highs below normal
with 70s until the 80s return for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2016

MVFR cigs from the RRV into northwest MN will steadily lift
through midday... with VFR cigs likley RRV and east through the
rest of the day. Sct strong to severe tstms are possible starting
in the DVL Basin around 21z...and shifting eastward across the
central RRV from around 23z to 01z...and across northwest MN
through 04z. MVFR cigs and vsbys possible in these tstms.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Gust

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051215-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
701 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2016

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BETWEEN 4 AND 6
PM...THE VALLEY REGION FROM 6 TO 8 PM AND AFTER 8PM EAST OF THE
VALLEY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE FAVORED THREAT AREA WILL
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LISBON TO PARK RAPIDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.