Hail in North Carolina, September 29, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
210 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry southwest flow of air will be setting up across the region on
Friday and linger through the weekend. Progressively warmer
temperatures are on tap through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2:00p EDT:  Latest surface analysis  has a surface low over
the central CWA with a triple point to the southeast.  This has
placed a weak occluded front stretching across the area just
northeast of the surface low.  This front is the most likely focus
for any convective activity this afternoon in the CWA, but more
widespread initiation of storms will probably occur well to the
southeast of the CWA along the main fronts in eastern South Carolina
and along the coast.  Latest CAPE in excess of 1500 j/kg exists to
the east of the occluded front with deep layer shear of 40 to 60 kts
(with weaker shear to the southeast), so some potential exists for
strong thunderstorms should anything get going later this
afternoon.  Strong southwesterly flow around unseasonally strong
upper low centered over Kentucky is producing the strong windshear
and will give any storms a rapid northeast storm motion.

Upper low makes little progress on Friday, but surface boundaries
move completely out of the area by Friday afternoon, with dewpoints
dropping 6 degrees overnight.  Chances for significant precip. on
Friday are, thus, greatly reduced.  Eastward movement of surface
boundaries will also drop temperatures down to near seasonal normals
with highs on Friday 5 degrees cooler than today.  With dryer and
cooler air on Friday, it may finally begin to resemble fall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At 200 PM Thursday: On Friday evening a large, deep closed upper low
will centered over the over the OH River Valley, with associated low
pressure extending outward to the Great Lakes, the NC Coast, and the
Gulf Coast. The low drifts slowly northeast to Southern Ontario by
Sunday evening, while upper troughing persists to to the southwest
as far as the Gulf States.

At the surface, on Friday evening a deep surface low will be over
the middle Ohio River Valley, while a weak surface front is expected
to be near the fall line of the Central to Eastern Carolinas and
Georgia. The models show dry air across most of Western Carolinas
and Northeast Georgia, with the possible exception of the Western NC
Mountains. This pattern by and large persists into Sunday, with the
result being little to no precipitation over our area. Temperatures
will exhibit an increased diurnal range due to anomalously dry air,
with minimums below or near normal, and highs above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...It doesn't look like any changes will
need to be made to the inherited dry and warm fcst to start off the
workweek with the medium range model consensus continuing the deep
and dry wsw flow aloft atop the region.  Monday's max temperatures
are slated to be two to three categories above the early Oct climo.
Even into Tuesday, the effectively dry wx should remain with max
temperatures perhaps a few deg F less warm than persistence within
the tightening easterly flow between TC Matthew and moderately
strong sfc hipres center over New England. For the latter half of
the period, at this stage of the game, any notable affects of
Matthew are progged to be well se/e of the cwfa. So, sensible wx
remains dry and warm for Wed/Thu, with the potential for breezy
easterly and/or northerly winds given the continued strength of
the pressure gradient.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1:15pm EDT:

At KCLT, deck of stratus at 015 has held in until now, but with
improving satellite presentation, expect this to lift in the next
hour or so.  For the rest of the day, there is some chance for
convective activity with a triple point frontal intersection to the
southeast and an occluded front stretching northwestward over KCLT.
Expect most convection to be along the main frontal boundaries well
to the east, but some activity is possible in the vicinity of the
occluded front, and latest radar to the north which could further
develop down towards KCLT.  Currently have VCSH in the TAF, given
less than 30 POP for the area.  Otherwise, easterly to southeasterly
winds will gradually veer to the south by tomorrow morning.

Elsewhere:  A few areas in North Carolina have some lingering low
CIGs which look on satellite to be breaking-up over the next hour.
Some convection is also possible this afternoon, primarily near the
KHKY and KCLT sites as a weak occluded front stretches over the area
from a frontal intersection over southeastern South Carolina.  Main
convective activity is expected south and eastward along the main
fronts, but radar has some activity, that rapidly moves
northeastward, east of KHKY.  KHKY and KAVL may also see some fog in
the morning with residual surface moisture, especially any areas
receiving rain today.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will build in slowly behind the front,
which should bring VFR conditions in most places through the
beginning of next week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  98%     High 100%     High  97%     High  94%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   79%     Low   58%     High  88%
KHKY       High  97%     High  97%     Low   49%     High  90%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...WJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-052-053-056-057-068>072-082-501>508-301830-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
221 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN THREATS ARE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-059-062>065-509-510-SCZ001>014-
019-301830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
221 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1042 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             4 N MINT HILL           35.24N 80.66W
09/28/2016  E0.25 INCH       MECKLENBURG        NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            OBSERVED AT ROBINSON F/R

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1236 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             HARRISBURG              35.32N 80.67W
09/28/2016  E0.50 INCH       CABARRUS           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

NCZ033-292045-
AVERY NC-
418 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AVERY COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM EDT...

AT 418 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NEWLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWLAND...BANNER ELK...ELK PARK...BEECH MOUNTAIN IN AVERY COUNTY...
SUGAR MOUNTAIN...SEVEN DEVILS...GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN...GRANDFATHER
MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...B.R. PARKWAY-LINVILLE FALLS TO GRANDFATHER AND
LINVILLE.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3627 8189 3625 8190 3624 8190 3623 8191
      3621 8190 3619 8188 3619 8186 3616 8183
      3611 8181 3609 8177 3602 8191 3610 8201
      3626 8194 3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 221DEG 22KT 3607 8192

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
419 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

NCZ033-501-292100-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS NC-AVERY NC-
419 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 419 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTH OF BLOWING ROCK...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF B.R.
PARKWAY-LINVILLE FALLS TO GRANDFATHER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLOWING ROCK IN CALDWELL COUNTY...B.R. PARKWAY-LINVILLE FALLS TO
GRANDFATHER...UPTON...GLOBE AND EDGEMONT.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3612 8155 3610 8152 3589 8173 3593 8175
      3593 8178 3595 8178 3595 8180 3597 8182
      3597 8183 3612 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 205DEG 22KT 3597 8175

CDG