Winter Weather in North Carolina, May 5 to 6, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
452 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EXPANDS
AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OF 445 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP FIELDS
SHOW THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST DEEP LAYER DPVA FORCING OCCURRING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSIT THE LOWER PIEDMONT
AND THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WHILE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL THEN DIMINISH OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...AN ADDITIONAL SPOKE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST
UPDATE WILL REFLECT THESE POP TRENDS. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL OR VERY SMALL HAIL WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES.

OTHERWISE...THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT...AND THE BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE TO OUR EAST.
LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
FROM THE N ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. INTERESTINGLY...FAIRLY
WELL-DEFINED ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW THRU THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND THAT APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE QPF PRODUCED BY VARIOUS GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE A CATEGORY
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...AND SOME SNOW IS LIKELY TO MIX IN ONCE AGAIN
ON THE HIGHEST MTN RIDGES. NO APPRECIABLE ACCUM IS EXPECTED. POPS
DIMINISH IN THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. THE SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR FROM
THERE THRU THE DAY FRIDAY...AS THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY POORER WITH THE BETTER COLD AIR
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT TEMPS/DEWPTS REBOUND BY 5-7 DEGREES...AND
THESE SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY STILL WILL DEVELOP. CHANCES OVERALL
ARE LESSER WITH MODEL QPF BEING LESS WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...ONE MORE POCKET OF COLD AIR ROTATES AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARMER MID
LEVEL AIR MOVES IN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRUSH THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. FINALLY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES EAST.
SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY EVEN AS HEIGHTS RISE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR. TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS ON SATURDAY THEN RISE TO NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED W TO E ACROSS THE REGION
UNDERNEATH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SARGASSO SEA
INDUCES WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND TO GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.  DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AND
WITH THE INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  THE ECMWF REMAINS LESS
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT COVERAGE THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON.  THIS APPEARS
LARGELY TO BE THE RESULT OF STRONGER PERTURBATIONS IN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT ENHANCING OVERALL FORCING IN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE FAIRLY
BENIGN ECMWF SOLUTION. THE FORECAST THEREFORE REFLECTS A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE AS THE PATTERN CERTAINLY WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE
COVERAGE EAST AND CHANCE COVERAGE WEST.

AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND A FEW LOBES OF
VORTICITY ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS AND INTO VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...AGAIN THE GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. WHILE POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANTICIPATED BETTER FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
WARRANT MORE AGGRESSIVE COVERAGE ATTM.  FOR NOW...THESE FEATURES DO
LITTLE TO CHANGE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE EXPECT THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT
WILL MAINTAIN GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BASED SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES FROM THE N LATER THIS EVENING AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO MORE ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD SHRA AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTED
VSBY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED GUSTS WITH THE SHRA EXISTS BUT
HARD TO PIN DOWN FOR INCLUSION IN TEMPO. CHANCE OF SHRA DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. VIRTUALLY ALL CIG GUIDANCE INDICATES BASES WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL STAY IN THE NW QUAD THRU THE PERIOD...BACKING TOWARD
W FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES NWD ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
THOUGH THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW WILL BE LESS FRIDAY...LAPSE RATES ARE
STILL SUFFICIENT TO EXPECT GOOD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY AS AT KCLT...BUT WITH PRECIP CHANCES SOMEWHAT
LOWER ACRS KGSP/KGMU/KAND PER CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. KAVL
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BRISK NWLY GUSTS INTO THE EVENING...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...SUGGESTING A SMALL CHANCE
OF AN MVFR CIG EXISTS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST FRI AFTN MAINLY
ACROSS THE NC SITES...BEFORE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. DRY
HIGH PRES RETURNS SATURDAY...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH THRU SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG/JMP
NEAR TERM...HG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...HG/WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-062015-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
405 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT. HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-062015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
405 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPSTATE OR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-052200-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...
SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK...
MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK...SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...PATTERSON...
JONAS RIDGE...ASHFORD...SUGAR HILL...WOODLAWN...OLD FORT
258 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ALONG SEVERAL LINES...ONE FROM EASLEY AND
GREENVILLE TO GREENWOOD AND LAURENS...AND ANOTHER FROM GAFFNEY TO
ROCK HILL IN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE CITY OF
CHARLOTTE AND SURROUNDING AREAS. A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE HAIL PERHAPS AS LARGE AS ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER. ONE OR
TWO LIGHTNING TRACKS COULD EVEN BE SEEN. SEE SHELTER INDOORS IF
LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
302 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-052115-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAUST...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...WALNUT...
ALLENSTAND...HOT SPRINGS...LUCK...NEWFOUND GAP...ALARKA...
ALMOND...BRYSON CITY...LUADA...SMOKEMONT...WESSER...WAYNESVILLE...
WATERVILLE...CANTON...CRUSO...COVE CREEK...LAKE JUNALUSKA...
DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...ROBBINSVILLE...STECOAH...CULLOWHEE...
TUCKASEGEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...
NANTAHALA LAKE...HIGHLANDS...WOLF MOUNTAIN...CASHIERS...BREVARD...
CEDAR MOUNTAIN...LITTLE RIVER...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...
DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH
302 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SNOW IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL IN THE
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE ABOUT 4500 FEET ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
FALL...AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SMOKIES AND OTHER MOUNTAIN RANGES ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER. MEANWHILE...SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF PEA SIZE HAIL IN THE VALLEYS. ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING
STRIKES COULD EVEN BE SEEN. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IF LIGHTNING IS
OBSERVED.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SCZ012-052100-
LAURENS SC-
437 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LAURENS
COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 437 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER 4
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAURENS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAURENS...CLINTON...JOANNA...CROSS HILL...WATERLOO...MOUNTVILLE AND
KINARDS.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3439 8219 3456 8210 3446 8170 3445 8172
      3436 8179 3435 8181 3435 8183 3432 8186
      3430 8190 3426 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 292DEG 28KT 3445 8206

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

NCZ082-052145-
UNION NC-
523 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL UNION
COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 523 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER 9
MILES SOUTH OF MONROE...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL SPRINGS...
MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRINITY.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3482 8071 3489 8073 3496 8052 3482 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 337DEG 16KT 3486 8060

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

NCZ082-052230-
UNION NC-
550 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL UNION
COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 549 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER 4
MILES WEST OF MONROE...OR NEAR WESLEY CHAPEL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONROE...WESLEY CHAPEL...MINERAL SPRINGS AND TRINITY.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS. AN OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING STRIKE MAY ALSO
BE SEEN.

LAT...LON 3482 8065 3502 8068 3503 8062 3482 8043
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 335DEG 14KT 3498 8063

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

NCZ033-049-050-060800-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...
SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK...
MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK...SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR
700 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS EVENING
IS DRIVING A BAND OF MOISTURE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR IN PLACE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500 FEET. THE VALLEYS AND SLOPES COULD
SEE SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS MIX IN AT TIMES...BUT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD FALL MAINLY AS RAIN IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER
RIDGE TOPS COULD SEE MORE PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW...WITH
MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK MAY PRODUCE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. USE CAUTION
TONIGHT IF YOU MUST TRAVEL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

GERAPETRITIS