Hail in North Carolina, May 31, 2016

Name: Hail in North Carolina, May 31, 2016
Start: 2016-05-31T15:08
End: 2016-05-31T15:14
Location: North Carolina

May 31, 2016 · NWS GSP · 2 events in 1 county or zone

Scattered thunderstorms developed over the mountains and foothills during the afternoon. One storm became briefly severe across the foothills, producing large hail in Polk County.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.

Scattered thunderstorms developed over the mountains and foothills during the afternoon. One storm became briefly severe across the foothills, producing large hail in Polk County.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 1:36 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 31, 1:36 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
236 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of tropical system Bonnie will slowly lift northeast
along the Carolina Coast over the next couple of days. Moisture will
increase ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the northwest
on Friday. The front will stall out over the area over the weekend,
with a stronger cold front moving through the region early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM: Deep convection has broken out over portions of
the NC mountains, with an appreciable Cu field covering much of
the Piedmont. An area of congested cumulus just north and NE of
Spartanburg has now also produced some heavy showers. Taking the
CWFA as a whole, our various convection allowing models are not
handling the coverage very well, mostly because they have been
overdone with coverage all day. Based on the development so far,
and what happened yesterday under similar circumstances, the
current activity is likely to expand mainly southward. Isolated
cells however are expected over the eastern Piedmont zones and
Savannah River Valley before the end of the day. The storms so far
have produced just heavy rain, and while profiles don't support
a particularly great damaging wind threat, the weak shear implies
storms will remain in pulse mode and an isolated large hail event
or downburst is plausible.

Lapse rates are expected to remain unchanged tonight, with a
similarly weakly forced environment as we experienced Mon night
into early Tue. The low level flow is expected to veer, which could
provide some slight upslope forcing and showers to linger into the
early morning. I have handled this trending PoPs down more slowly
than they would on a typical diurnal curve. Despite the easterly
flow, low stratus looks unlikely (particularly given that it was
overforecast by guidance for today). Min temps will be a few degrees
above climo on account of partial cloudiness from convective debris,
and humid conditions. Overall the pattern will have changed little
by Wed aftn. Another round of diurnal thunderstorms is expected,
mainly forming over the mountains and moving into the foothills,
but with isolated to scattered cells developing over the Piedmont as
well. Weak wind profiles still point to pulse storms and associated
threats. Max temps will be a degree or two above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday: Flat ridging builds over the Southeastern US
through the period. Weak low level easterly flow remains in place
across the area Thursday as the remnants of Bonnie slowly move north
along the NC coast. With warm temps and copious low level moisture
in place, moderate instability will develop once again. Expect
numerous convective coverage to develop across the mountains with
high end scattered coverage elsewhere. Low level flow becomes
southwesterly on Friday as a weak cold front moves into the area
from the NW. Low level moisture remains quite high which keeps
moderate instability across the area. Expect convective coverage to
be similar if not slightly greater than Thursday. Shear remains weak
even with the approach of the frontal system. However, expect a few
severe storms to develop each day given the instability and
convective coverage. Isolated flooding is also possible with slow
moving storms both days. Highs rise from a couple of degrees above
normal on Thursday to around 5 degrees above normal Friday. Lows
will be up to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Tuesday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on
Saturday with relatively flat upper ridging over the southeast and a
nearly stationary southern stream upper low over Texas. Over the
next 24 to 48 hours, steep upper ridging amplifies over the Western
CONUS and broad upper troffing digs down over the Great Lakes. The
upper trof axis is expected to be east of the fcst area by the end
of the medium range on Tuesday as the upper ridge spreads farther
east.

At the sfc, the long range models are coming into better agreement
wrt the evolution of the sfc pattern. The pattern remains fairly
stagnate and weakly forced on Sat and most of Sun as a stalled cold
front lingers over the region keeping deep lyr moisture and healthy
amounts of instability in place. A stronger cold front approaches
the CWFA on Sunday and is expected to move thru the fcst area
sometime late Sunday into early Monday with drier and cooler air
overspreading the region in the front's wake. As for the sensible
fcst, I kept solid chance to low end likely chances for numerous
showers and ts on Saturday and Sunday. Drying is expected during the
latter half of Monday with dry conditions for Tuesday. Temps will
start out just above climatology and cool on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT: There is potential for a TSRA to impact the field this
afternoon and early evening. Some meso model runs depict clustered
storms moving thru the KCLT area, though based on these models'
poor performance so far today, this appears too unlikely to warrant
a mention. A TEMPO may be needed in subsequent amendments, but most
likely all impactful convection will remain west of the field. Low
VFR Cu will persist into early evening, with some stratocu or altocu
seen overnight. Guidance that suggested restrictive stratus would
move overhead this (Tue) morning was incorrect, and under nearly
the same pattern the same guidance is making the same prediction for
Wed. I will maintain VFR fcst. Winds remaining in NE quad and light.

Elsewhere: SCT +SHRA/TSRA are expected to grow in coverage thru
mid-aftn, gradually moving S-SE off the Blue Ridge. TEMPOs are
included accordingly at KAVL/KGSP/KGMU. A chance does exist at
KHKY/KAND though not great enough to warrant a TEMPO. Some showers
will linger into tonight though likely not having much impact. Some
patchy fog is expected to develop over the mtns early Wed AM,
particularly where +RA falls today, and perhaps at KAND. Winds will
be mainly SW at KAVL and NE elsewhere, going light/VRB overnight.

Outlook...Remnant low from former tropical cyclone Bonnie is
expected to move very slowly up the coastal Carolinas over the
next several days, maintaining increased precip and morning
stratus chances at KCLT. Otherwise, patchy fog chances continue
at KAVL each morning, with scattered afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA
increasing in coverage throughout during the week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  95%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  97%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  97%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous weather outlook, May 31, 2:45 PM EST, 23 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
ALL OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS
QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 31, 1:13 PM EST, 1 hour 55 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

GAZ010-311845-
RABUN GA-
213 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
RABUN COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLAYTON...OR 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SKY VALLEY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... CLAYTON...MOUNTAIN
CITY...TIGER...DILLARD...SKY VALLEY...TALLULAH GORGE STATE
PARK...BLACK ROCK MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...LAKEMONT AND PINE MOUNTAIN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8339 3500 8314 3498 8311 3491 8316
      3489 8320 3488 8321 3488 8324 3485 8325
      3485 8327 3482 8327 3483 8329 3482 8331
      3481 8330 3479 8332 3476 8332 3474 8335
      3472 8335 3491 8356
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 049DEG 8KT 3494 8327

RWH

Special weather statement, May 31, 2:27 PM EST, 41 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

NCZ501-502-312000-
GREATER CALDWELL NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
327 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALDWELL
COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 326 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES WEST OF LENOIR...OR NEAR GAMEWELL...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LENOIR...GAMEWELL...CAJAH'S MOUNTAIN...COLLETTSVILLE...EDGEMONT AND
PATTERSON.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 8146 3585 8152 3583 8161 3584 8163
      3585 8164 3588 8171 3601 8178 3601 8177
      3606 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 165DEG 4KT 3591 8164

MOORE

Special weather statement, May 31, 2:39 PM EST, 29 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

NCZ507>510-312030-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-EASTERN POLK NC-
POLK MOUNTAINS NC-
339 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
RUTHERFORD AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...LAKE LURE...CHIMNEY ROCK STATE PARK...LAKE ADGER...GREEN
CREEK...MILL SPRING AND GREEN HILL.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 8210 3527 8192 3519 8202 3519 8213
      3520 8215 3520 8217 3540 8226 3547 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 334DEG 6KT 3531 8213

MOORE

Special weather statement, May 31, 3:04 PM EST, 4 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

NCZ504-506-508-312045-
GREATER BURKE NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-
404 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
BURKE...NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 404 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORGANTON...OR 8 MILES WEST OF SOUTH MOUNTAINS
STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTH MOUNTAINS STATE PARK AND DYSARTSVILLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8169 3551 8189 3565 8190 3569 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 345DEG 5KT 3561 8181

MOORE

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 39 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:08 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Polk

When: May 31, 3:08 PM EST
Where: Polk County, 1.78 mi SE of Columbus
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Social Media
Coordinates: 35.230, -82.180

Public reported quarter size hail via social media.

Hail, Polk

When: May 31, 3:14 PM EST
Where: Polk County, Columbus
Measured: 0.75 in hail
Reported by: Social Media
Coordinates: 35.250, -82.200

Public reported 3/4 inch hail via social media.

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in North Carolina in 2016 Every state in 2016 This day in weather history Warnings in North Carolina, May 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 639211, 639212.