Strong destabilization west and south of a northeastward retreating front resulted in the development of showers and thunderstorms along the differential heating boundary. A few of the storms became severe, producing large hail and damaging winds across western and southern portions of Central North Carolina.
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The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Strong destabilization west and south of a northeastward retreating front resulted in the development of showers and thunderstorms along the differential heating boundary. A few of the storms became severe, producing large hail and damaging winds across western and southern portions of Central North Carolina.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 12, 12:55 PM EST, 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 155 PM EDT thu MAY 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A quasi-stationary frontal zone over central NC this morning will retreat north into southern VA throughout the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the west, then cross the Middle Atlantic region on Fri. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Thursday... The meandering front over NC/VA the past few days has made a strong push south this morning, resulting in stratus as far south as Lexington to Sanford to Goldsboro. The Clayton Wind Profiler shows northeasterly flow deepening to around 700ft and a recent PIREP at RDU indicated the stratus extends up to 2200ft. Needless to say, the stratus is a bit thicker than models projected 24 hours ago and will take longer to erode from south to north today. LAV/LAMP guidance suggests mid 70s north to mid 80s south, which is likely the right direction for forecast highs. Strong destabilization is forecast around the southern and western sides of the retreating stratus/front given dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s and ample low- level moisture in general (925mb dewpoints > 15C). While NAM forecast MLCAPE of 3000 J/KG, GFS and RAP values of 2000-2500 J/KG are quite possible across the southern CWA. Like yesterday, convergence near the front and differential heating appear to be the most evident triggers for convection, with some weak perturbations upstream over eastern TN possibly to have some influence later this afternoon. Weak ridging aloft will keep deep layer shear weaker than past days (only 20kt from 0-6km at KGSO this morning), though the front and/or perturbations aloft may locally enhance the shear to 25-30kt, supporting some loosely organized clusters of storms. Locally heavy rainfall may also be more of an issue today within these slower moving clusters. Changes to POPs have been minor this morning, maintaining the trend of chance POPs increasing from southwest to northeast with the retreating front. -22 Convective coverage is likely to diminish throughout the evening, given both nocturnal and (probably) widespread outflow/diabatic cooling and convective overturning. Convective chances will then increase late, as stronger QG-forcing for ascent accompanying the approaching synoptic trough from the Plains states edges east of the Appalachians. A steady, and probably breezy at times, southerly wind will discourage fog development and lead to mild and relatively muggy low temperatures in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees. -26 && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 135 AM Thursday... There continues to be more than enough spread in the model depiction of instability for friday as the cold front pushes into the state. The highest instability may actually be limited to the far eastern zones as considerable moisture available (pw's around 1.5 inches) will lead to considerable cloudiness that will greatly limit instability. The timing of the cold front is not favorable for strong heating either. We will maintain the highest POP in the east with lower POP in the west. There may be scattered showers early in the day which gradually dissipate. Additional convective develop should occur during the afternoon and last into the early evening in the east. Highs generally should reach the 80- 85 range with some 70s in the NW. Lows friday night will be mostly in the 50s with near 60 in the SE, with partly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 259 AM Thursday... Saturday through Sunday night/: A secondary cold front is expected to push SE through the region Saturday afternoon. Much drier air will already be in place, but the CAA will lag behind the secondary front. There may be an isolated light shower or sprinkle with the front; however, the theme of the day should be warm and breezy. The skies will be partly sunny. Highs expected to range in the 80s with some upper 70s NW. Saturday night and Sunday will be much cooler and dry. Lows with clear skies should dip into the upper 40s to mid 50s. The highs Sunday should only in the lower to mid 70s. Monday through Wednesday/: The favored EC ensemble mean indicates a slower moistening process with the approach of a warm front Monday night and Tuesday. Monday should still be dry and mild. Lows in the upper 40s and 50s. Highs Monday will be in the 70s. The chance of showers are expected to increase Tuesday and continue into Wednesday. The amount of instability will be in question until the warm front pushes north of the region by mid-week. Timing is in question. It appears that the most significant rain will be from the Appalachians westward instead of east of the Appalachians (at least until late week). Very warm and increasing humid conditions are expected in the warm sector by Wed. and Thu. We will trend POP to show more of a diurnal convective chance Tue. and Wed. per the latest favored guidance, and less of a all day chance. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH tuesday/... As of 155 PM Thursday... A cold front draped west to east across southern NC will begin to lift northward this afternoon and evening, with scattered storms expected to develop along and south of the front. Meanwhile, stratus over the Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain is finally scattering from southwest to northeast. MVFR conditions at KRDU should become VFR by 19-20z, while MVFR holds on longer at KRWI. Storms will generally move east-northeast this afternoon, with many TAF sites having a decent chance of TSRA at least in the vicinity of the terminal. Tonight- most of the storms will die off after sunset and a light south wind will prevail. A few showers are possible after between roughly 09z and 13z from KINT to KRDU, while a cold front approaches from the west. More substantial showers and storms will be possible with the cold front, most likely after 15z from KRDU eastward. Outlook: The passage of the cold front Friday afternoon will usher in drier air and generally VFR conditions into early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26/22 SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...22
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 652 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 NCZ007-021>025-038>042-073>078-083>086-088-089-131100- PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH- CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 652 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ008>011-026>028-043-131100- GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WILSON- 652 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
146 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
NCZ074-075-077-083>086-088-121845-
SCOTLAND NC-CUMBERLAND NC-RICHMOND NC-ANSON NC-HOKE NC-
MOORE NC-HARNETT NC-MONTGOMERY NC-
146 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT SCOTLAND...
CUMBERLAND...RICHMOND... ANSON...HOKE...MOORE...SOUTHERN HARNETT AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...SOUTHERN PINES...ROCKINGHAM...WADESBORO...RAEFORD...TROY...
FORT BRAGG...PINEHURST...HAMLET AND ABERDEEN.
LAT...LON 3481 8013 3516 8009 3514 8007 3517 8005
3523 8008 3538 8006 3525 7890 3484 7888
3484 7891 3492 7896 3495 7904 3483 7919
3484 7935 3481 7936 3480 7967
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 258DEG 4KT 3500 7918
13The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 90 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:09 UTC.
5 hail, 4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple trees were blown down on Galatia Church Road near Rockfish.
Hail up to the size of golf balls fell along a swath from 4 miles west of New Hope to 4 miles west-southwest of Martha.
Hail up the the size of golf balls fell near Winston-Salem State University.
Numerous trees and power lines were blown down on the east side of Winston-Salem.
A couple of trees were blown down on Coble Church Road near Forest Oaks.
Several trees were blown down near Altamahaw.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 635911, 635906, 635907, 635908, 635909, 635912, 635910, 635913, 635914.