Scattered thunderstorms developed near the Blue Ridge during mid-afternoon and moved southeast across the foothills. A couple of the storms became briefly strong to severe.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed near the Blue Ridge during mid-afternoon and moved southeast across the foothills. A couple of the storms became briefly strong to severe.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 3:20 PM EST, 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
420 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak nearly stationary front will roughly west to east
across our area will move north over the Virginias to start the
week. As an upper level disturbance approaches from the northwest
in the early half of the week, the chance of showers and
thunderstorms will increase. Predominant south to
southwest wind will increase moisture, and keep our
temperatures above normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 PM: Mountain and foothill convection has strengthen and
increased in coverage over the past hour. Latest sfc analysis
indicated a stationary front running generally west to east near the
NC/SC state line. SPC mesoscale analysis showed CAPE between 1000 to
2000 J/kg along and south of the sfc boundary. I will continue to
indicate PoPs between 30 to 40 percent across the mtns, foothills,
and NC Piedmont through this evening. Temperatures have neared the
daily maximum, reaching near record values at KGSP and KAVL. I will
keep temps steady over the next hours, then show a slow cooling
heading toward sunset.
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday: Surface front draped across the Upstate
will continue to meander around the area through the period. Nearly
zonal flow just to our north with subtropical ridge building into
the Southeast will shift slightly as shortwave across the Central
Plains moves this way, really picking up convective potential across
the Ohio Valley overnight and into tomorrow and adding more synoptic
lift to our area. For this afternoon, sbCAPE has skyrocketed to our
east but dry air aloft has made it to the surface, keeping CAPE
values a little lower across the western half of the area. Best
dCAPE values are on the south side of the front, with a sweet spot
of overlapping across eastern SC Upstate and toward Charlotte. CAM
guidance again not particularly excited about convection though with
the aforementioned parameters we have yet another Marginal Risk in
place. Temperatures have been a bit of a bear today with cloud cover
across the northern NC Piedmont keeping temperatures down this
morning, but with soaring temperatures across the Upstate and NE GA
as thicknesses increase with the building upper ridge, already a
couple of degrees above forecasted high temps for today.
As moisture increases across the northern tier tonight, we will
probably have another round of low clouds by morning which may
result in a persistence pattern for Independence Day, with
temperatures held down a bit more through the morning across the
northern NC Piedmont, and possibly some bust potential (warmer than
forecast) across the Upstate. However, with the additional moisture
from the approaching shortwave, we should have more cloud cover
tomorrow which may counteract the warming from thicknesses. Either
way, still above-normal. Convection tomorrow should be a little more
significant than that today for all the reasons already mentioned.
The Day2 Slight Risk just barely clips our northeast zones as weak
shear from the upper system should allow for slightly more organized
convection, with gusty to damaging winds the primary threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: Models indicate that weak short waves in the
westerly flow aloft will bring increased moisture and storm chances
to the region this period. This activity will be most active during
the late afternoon and evening period but some activity may linger
into the overnight hours as well. Highs each day will be in the
lower to middle 90s with heat indicates approaching 100 degrees in
the Piedmont, not as hot in the mountains of course.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 PM Sunday: Starting Wednesday evening with a 500mb
pattern roughly zonal which will evolve to be more amplified through
the weekend due to a strong upper low crossihg the Great Lakes. A
series of shortwaves will be in some way affecting our weather in
the medium range. The 925mb flow is forecast to be generally from
the west Thursday and Friday then shift to from NW or
variable on Saturday then back to SW Sunday. The best instability is
currently forecast to be Sunday PM over the areas mainly south of
Interstate 40 with CAPE at least 2000 on the ECMWF for Upper
Savannah Valley and Upstate. That shortwave on Sunday appears to be
the best system for our latter period of the forecast as it moves in
from the NW across TN to our area.
Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal with Friday and
Saturday being the slightly hottest days.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT/KHKY/AVL: Patchy MVFR still around KHKY but this should
continue to break up as VCSH/TSRA chances increase this afternoon.
Continued TEMPO TSRA for these sites through 00z but may very well
need to be extended depending on when convective initiation occurs.
Kept VCSH through the period for KAVL/KHKY, and introduced PROB30
TSRA Monday. Profiles have quite a bit of low-level moisture in the
morning, enough to warrant MVFR vsby at KCLT and IFR at KHKY/KAVL.
Will likely see another round of IFR cigs at KHKY as well, and
cannot totally rule it out for KCLT but only included SCT015 with
this TAF set. Winds should generally be N through this evening,
possibly VRB overnight, but should switch around to E and SE Monday
morning as the front continues to meander around.
At KGSP/KGMU/KAND: Convection chances too low to include in the TAF
this afternoon. SW winds this afternoon will rotate around to NE
overnight, and back to W Monday morning. Introduced PROB30 TSRA late
in the period but otherwise VFR.
Outlook: Stalled boundary will persist into the middle of the week.
Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will continue, and
restrictions could occur the following morning wherever heavy rain
falls in the afternoon. A wave of low pressure moving east along
the boundary will particularly enhance TSRA potential Mon-Tue,
but the presence of the boundary will generally keep precip chances
higher than normal thru most of the week.
Confidence Table...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 98% High 86% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 98% High 94% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 98% High 92% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 87% High 86% High 95%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 93% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 95% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED/TDP
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...TDPHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 435 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>007-010>014-019-041915- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE- LAURENS-UNION-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 435 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZAROUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008- 009-041915- AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD- BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL- BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK- CHEROKEE-YORK- 435 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
407 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016
NCZ505-506-032030-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-
407 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...
AT 406 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES WEST OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARION...LAKE JAMES...PLEASANT GARDENS AND NEBO.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.
&&
LAT...LON 3578 8195 3565 8187 3562 8214 3569 8219
3580 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 247DEG 14KT 3568 8209
08SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 419 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 NCZ035-056-502-504-032045- GREATER CALDWELL NC-GREATER BURKE NC-CATAWBA NC-ALEXANDER NC- 419 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...EAST CENTRAL BURKE...WESTERN CATAWBA AND SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT... AT 418 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF MORGANTON...OR OVER LAKE RHODHISS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS NEAR HICKORY...ALSO MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... HICKORY...ST. STEPHENS...LONGVIEW...SAWMILLS...GRANITE FALLS...VALDESE... BETHLEHEM...ICARD...HILDEBRAN AND CONNELLY SPRINGS. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. && LAT...LON 3574 8161 3582 8159 3585 8122 3559 8128 TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 280DEG 16KT 3577 8154 08
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 446 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 NCZ056-504-032130- GREATER BURKE NC-CATAWBA NC- 446 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016 ...THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BURKE AND SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT... AT 445 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEWTON TO 9 MILES WEST OF HICKORY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEWTON...HICKORY...LONGVIEW...VALDESE...MAIDEN...ICARD...HILDEBRAN... RUTHERFORD COLLEGE...MOUNTAIN VIEW AND HICKORY REGIONAL AIRPORT. IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORMS APPROACH. THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && LAT...LON 3573 8126 3555 8098 3557 8146 3575 8157 TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 314DEG 10KT 3569 8129 3571 8148 08
The Greer radar (KGSP), 123 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:03 UTC.
1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Media reported 3/4 inch hail on Prison Camp Rd and on St James Church Rd.
County comms reported multiple trees blown down on Stroud Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 649024, 649026.