A series of mid-level shortwave troughs, embedded in northwest flow, triggered numerous strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILM wrote it up.
A series of mid-level shortwave troughs, embedded in northwest flow, triggered numerous strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 12:55 PM EST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 155 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorms will be possible each day through Wednesday in a hot and humid summertime pattern. A cold front will drop across the area Wednesday, bringing drier weather late in the week. Temperatures will surge back above normal for the weekend, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms increasing early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 PM Tuesday...The latest models continue to show main focus of convection along sea breeze and related to a couple of shortwaves moving through from the NW. The upper trough axis will remain just off the east coast but the few shortwaves riding down in the northwest flow will help to trigger storms through tonight. The first shortwave helped to initiate convection over northern Bladen and Pender counties this morning. The steering flow was driving the storms due east. The best shortwave energy will move through North Carolina, especially just north of local forecast area, but it will extend farther south. It will reach the coast this afternoon in time to combine with moderate instability and the sea breeze front to help enhance localized convection. Sfc based CAPE values remain up close to 4000 j/kg with pcp water values over 2 inches, temps around 90 and dewpoint temps into the 70s. Most of the area remained cloud free through the morning outside of convection across Bladen and Pender, then decent cu field developed along sea breeze and remain scattered across this boundary as it pushes inland. With the steering flow out of the W-NW, expect storms to move toward the coast and off shore. Other storms developing upstream with next shortwave riding down from the northwest later today should reach the I-95 corridor this evening and the coast by daybreak. SPC has outlined a slight risk upstream in central NC into the Lumberton area and continues with marginal for rest of area. The main threat from stronger to possibly severe storms will be the threat of damaging winds. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Tuesday...The longwave upper pattern will pretty much hold during this time frame, with the upper trof weakening at the end of this period as the upper westerlies retreat back to the north. Will start out with a decent threat for convection on wed due to the approaching cold front dropping down from the north. With flow aloft becoming more northerly by Wed night, this front will be able to push across the entire ILM CWA by sunset Wed. Its progged to stall in the GA-Fl neighborhood by Thu. Given the flow aloft, this seems reasonable. Convection will again be the story for Wed with the introduction of forcing from the southward progressing cold front. Models are different in their portrayal of avbl convective parameters for Wed, with the NAM progged sounding being more optimistic and exhibiting 3000-4000 CAPE Wed aftn whereas the GFS is half that. PWs hold in the 1.5 to 1.75 inches. POPs for Wed will be in the 30-50 range. For Thu, POPs will drop to 20-30 and mainly across the western portions of the FA. This due to the northerly flow aloft and a weak s/w mid-level trof passing just west of the FA during the day. Temps will be near climo on Wed and slightly above climo on Thu due to less clouds and pcpn. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...A broad mid and upper level ridge will hold on across the central CONUS Friday, then dampen out Saturday and Sunday in response to a shortwave moving from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. Although the ridge will deamplify, its axis will extend eastward across the Carolinas, and this orientation will result in a deep layer of dry, northerly flow above 850 mb. By Monday, heights will fall off a bit over the area as the ridge retreats to the west, and this will make conditions slightly more favorable for convection. At this time it appears the biggest weather concern through the period will be the heat on Saturday and Sunday. Heat advisory criteria are forecast to be met both days. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 18Z...Expect isolated to scattered convection to fire along the sea breeze this afternoon supported by a passing trough aloft. These storms should mainly affect the coastal terminals though it is possible that inland tafs could be affected. Another slug of energy aloft is firing storms inland and these may affect the terminals later this afternoon into the evening. Brief bouts of IFR are possible, but should last less than a quarter hour or so. Continued south to southwest flow. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...predominantly VFR outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 PM...Rather tranquil wind and seas conditions expected, outside of the thunderstorm activity. Ridging will extend westward from the Bermuda high, and onshore across the GA- FL vicinity. This positioning and the Piedmont trof across the central Carolinas will result in a S to SW flow across the local waters. The sfc pg will remain somewhat loose, resulting in 10 to occasional 15 kt speeds...the 15 kt speeds mainly nearshore due to the sea breeze. Significant seas will run around 2 ft with 3 footers more common between Cape Fear and Murrells Inlet. The 1 to 1.5 foot ese ground swell at 8 to 9 second periods will continue to be the mainstay, with local wind waves meshing in. Convection will increase this aftn and night, with storms both moving off the mainland as well as developing overhead affecting the local waters. Have hit the tstorm attributes, wind gusts and lightning, pretty hard for this aftn thru this evening. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Tuesday...A cold front dropping down from the north early Wed, should push across and south of the local waters Wednesday afternoon and evening. The front will eventually stall in the GA and FL vicinity on Thu. Thus the convective threat will be highest on Wed, becoming more isolated on Thu. Winds will run 10 kt Wed with the sfc pressure pattern veering the winds from sw to nw Wed morning and further veering to a north to northeast direction immediately after the cfp Wed night into Thu. A brief post cfp 15 kt surge is possible early Thu with winds mellowing back to around 10 kt as directions further veer to the e-se thu night. Significant seas will run around 3 ft with a continued and persistent underlying 1 to 2 foot se ground swell at 9 second periods. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Light and somewhat variable winds are expected on Friday in a weak pressure field. A more well-defined south-southwest flow will become established on Saturday as surface high pressure sets up off the coast, and a weak surface trough develops across the Piedmont of the Carolinas. Shower and tstm activity over the water is expected to remain minimal. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...31
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 342 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055-200745- ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER- INLAND BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION- WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN- 342 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL COME FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS... HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET WITH HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-200745- COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY- COASTAL GEORGETOWN- 342 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL COME FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS... HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET WITH HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AMZ250-252-254-256-200745- COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM- 342 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL COME FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DOUGH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1027 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016
NCZ105-191515-
INLAND PENDER NC-
1027 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN PENDER COUNTY UNTIL 1115 AM
EDT...
AT 1027 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER WILLARD...OR NEAR WALLACE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAPLE HILL...WILLARD...PENDERLEA AND WATHA.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 388 AND 394.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.
&&
LAT...LON 3464 7815 3468 7815 3471 7811 3473 7810
3473 7801 3472 7799 3471 7798 3472 7794
3472 7768 3461 7763
TIME...MOT...LOC 1427Z 273DEG 19KT 3468 7794
RGZSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
157 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016
NCZ106>108-191845-
COASTAL NEW HANOVER NC-COASTAL PENDER NC-INLAND NEW HANOVER NC-
157 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...
AT 157 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BAYSHORE...OR OVER FIGURE EIGHT ISLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILMINGTON...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...FIGURE EIGHT ISLAND...RICH INLET...
HAMPSTEAD...PORTERS NECK...MAYFAIRE...BAYSHORE...OGDEN...LANDFALL...
WINDEMERE...SCOTTS HILL...KINGS GRANT...MURRAYVILLE AND SEAGATE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.
&&
LAT...LON 3426 7775 3425 7778 3424 7777 3424 7778
3422 7780 3421 7780 3421 7781 3419 7782
3422 7781 3421 7782 3421 7783 3420 7783
3428 7788 3434 7779 3431 7776 3438 7768
3434 7767
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 232DEG 19KT 3428 7779
SHKThe Wilmington radar (KLTX), 64 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:10 UTC.
14 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Dime to penny size hail was reported near the intersection of Military Cutoff Road and Market Street.
Hail to the size of quarters was reported near the intersection of Gordon Road and Market Street. The time was estimated by radar data.
Several trees were reported down along Cottonwood Lane.
Two trees were reportedly down off Midway Road between Boat Lane and Zachary's Path. The time was estimated based on radar data.
Several small trees were reportedly down on Fruit Ridge Road. The time was estimated based on radar data.
A tree was reportedly down on Azalea Drive. The time was estimated based on radar data.
A tree was reportedly down at the intersection of N Elm Street and E 16th Street. The time was estimated based on radar data.
A large tree limb was reportedly down on E 15th Street. The time was estimated based on radar data.
A large tree limb reportedly fell through a window on N Elm Street. The time was estimated based on radar data.
A tree was reportedly down at the intersection of E 9th Street and Summit Avenue. The time was estimated based on radar data.
A tree was reportedly down on a house on Patton Street. No information was available as to whether any structural damage was sustained. The time was estimated based on radar data.
A tree was reportedly down on power lines at the intersection of McArthur Street and Linwood Avenue. The time was estimated based on radar data.
A large pine tree was reportedly down on Eastwood Terrace.
A tree reportedly fell onto a house on Edwards Street. No information was available as to whether there was any structural damage. The time was estimated based on radar data.
A tree was reportedly down on Old Whiteville Road. The time was estimated based on radar data.
Minor roof damage to a house was reported on T P Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 649850, 649848, 650226, 650225, 650224, 650071, 650076, 650067, 650070, 650077, 650073, 650074, 650119, 650065, 650069, 650120.