Hail in North Carolina, July 13, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
322 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Influence from a Bermuda high will keep the area in a typical
summertime pattern through Thursday. A weak cold front will approach
the southern Appalachians by Friday and stall through early next
week, generally enhancing rain and thunderstorm chances across the
forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At 230 PM Wednesday: Zonal upper flow was in place across most of
the CONUS this afternoon, and this pattern is expected to persist
into Thursday. A weak shortwave is expected to cross the southern
Appalachians this evening, perhaps followed by an even weaker one on
Thursday. Weak surface troughing is expected to persist over the
Carolinas and northeast Georgia through Thursday.

Although instability is present this afternoon, moisture is somewhat
limited, especially east of the mountains, and shear is rather weak,
limiting convective coverage and intensity. Instability and
moisture appear to be slightly greater on Thursday, mainly over the
mountains, improving convection chances and coverage slightly.
Temperatures will run above normal both tonight and tomorrow, with
heat index values between 100 and 102 in the upper Savannah River
Valley Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 pm EDT Wednesday, troughiness extending from the Great
Lakes to the mid South will push east toward the southern
Appalachians on Friday. At the surface, a lee trough will develop as
the upper support arrives and likely west to solid chance PoPs for
convection will be supported by late day. A surface reflection may
form over the piedmont of the western Carolinas late Friday, and
this added forcing will likely keep scattered convection going well
into the nighttime hours Friday night/Saturday morning - especially
with upper divergence increasing as well. Consensus SBCAPE values of
2000 to 2500 J/kg look likely as 850 mb flow toggles more southerly
and there is less dewpoint mixing late Friday. Wind profiles will be
fairly weak up the column and organized severe is not likely, but
pulse to multicell isolated severe will be possible.

The trailing surface cold front will settle into the region and
stall on Saturday. This should lead to another day of fairly robust
coverage across the forecast area, but temperatures should be cooler
with more clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...the extended period begins 00Z Sunday with
a large, deep upper ridge setting up over the central plains and a
trough deepening over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a weak
frontal boundary stalled across the southern Appalachians will
remain relatively stationary through the end of the extended period.
The combination of the upper trough, some upper diffluence over the
southeast, and the stalled boundary will enhance precip chances
through the middle of next week, though pops will remain diurnally
favored and generally higher over the higher terrain. The strong
upper ridge will continue to deepen over the central CONUS through
the middle of next week, but its influence on temps will remain
generally confined to the central plains, and max and min temps will
remain near or less than a category above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT: VFR. Convective chances this afternoon are a bit too low to
mention. Overnight vsby restrictions remain northeast of the field.
Cigs, though not supported, would be low VFR. Winds will favor the
SW.

Elsewhere: Afternoon convective chances only reach levels warranting
a mention at KAVL, but foothills sites will be close. Vsby
restrictions will be limited to KAVL, but restrictions are expected to
the west of KHKY. Cigs are not favored, but would be low VFR in the
foothills and upper MVFR at KAVL if they occur. Winds will favor the
SW in the foothills, and NW at KAVL.

Outlook: Fairly typical midsummer weather with PM showers and
thunderstorms expected through Friday. A frontal boundary pushing
in this weekend will enhance the daily coverage thereof. Each day,
AM fog and low stratus will be possible in the mountain river
valleys and also in locations that receive heavy rainfall in the
preceding PM.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Low   58%     High  84%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-141945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
344 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH LATE EVENING. COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN
NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE
STORMS...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS. ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-141945-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
344 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
LATE EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST IN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAINS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...BUT THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS. ONE OR TWO OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GERAPETRITIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1248 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W MARION              35.68N 82.10W
07/08/2016                   MCDOWELL           NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREE ON A HOUSE ALONG HIGHWAY 70

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

SCZ002-131945-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-
324 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 323 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF PICKENS...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF JOCASSEE GORGES...
MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOCASSEE GORGES...SASSAFRAS MOUNTAIN AND ROCKY BOTTOM.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3507 8285 3508 8280 3508 8279 3507 8278
      3507 8277 3502 8274 3500 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 345DEG 5KT 3504 8282

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

NCZ502-504-132030-
GREATER CALDWELL NC-GREATER BURKE NC-
411 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CALDWELL AND
CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 411 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LENOIR...OR NEAR CAJAH'S MOUNTAIN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DREXEL...GAMEWELL AND LAKE RHODHISS.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3582 8165 3586 8161 3581 8152 3575 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 314DEG 8KT 3582 8159

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
417 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

NCZ502-132045-
GREATER CALDWELL NC-
417 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
CALDWELL COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 417 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LENOIR...OR OVER SAWMILLS...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAWMILLS...GRANITE FALLS...RHODHISS...HUDSON AND LAKE RHODHISS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 8140 3577 8139 3577 8144 3579 8145
      3578 8149 3578 8152 3584 8151
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 265DEG 7KT 3581 8147

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
424 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

NCZ052-132100-
HAYWOOD NC-
424 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 424 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF WAYNESVILLE...OR NEAR CANTON...MOVING EAST AT 5
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CANTON AND CLYDE.

HALF INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8278 3551 8279 3550 8289 3554 8292
      3560 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 255DEG 5KT 3554 8286

LANE