Damaging Winds in North Carolina, August 27, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
202 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will build over the region through the
weekend, keeping temperatures above average through next week. A
frontal boundary will push through by the end of the next work week,
though a lack of moisture will keep rain chances near or below
normal for most of the week. The tropics remain active as we near
the peak of the season...though no systems appear to be a threat to
our area at the current time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At 200 PM Saturday: An upper ridge will drift northeast from VA to
the NJ coast by Sunday, while a weak upper low drifts from the Gulf
Stream toward the SC coast. Modest upper level divergence west of
the upper low is expected to move inland toward the southern Blue
Ridge on Sunday

At the surface, a band of low level moisture is expected to drift
west from the Piedmont to the Blue Ridge this afternoon and evening.
Instability will be sufficient for convection, with enough downdraft
cape present for a few damaging wind gusts. Convection may be slow
to taper off this evening as instability lingers. Another round of
convection is expected again on Sunday, perhaps supplemented by the
modest aforementioned upper divergence. This activity could end as
early s late afternoon however if a dry slot moves inland to the east
of a band of coastal moisture. Temperatures will generally run
slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday: A weak offshore Atlantic circulation may
migrate west toward the SC/GA coast on Monday as a weakness develops
in the mid level ridge and the nose of surface high pressure draped
across the region. Low and mid level drying will continue to work
into the area from the NE and this will translate into very limited
surface based instability and below climo PoPs - shunted mainly
toward far southern/southwestern parts of the CWA during the
diurnally favored period. Monday morning mins will continue well
above climo, with maxes at or just above climo in the NE flow.

Most of the vorticity and upper divergence with the approaching
offshore system will likely stall along the coast through Tuesday.
Generally easterly to northeasterly flow is expected to continue,
but without much of a corresponding increase in Atlantic moisture.
Expect scattered ridgetop convection to redevelop Tuesday afternoon
in weak mountain wind convergence. Temps may rise a notch over
Monday values.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...the medium range picks up on 00Z
Wednesday with the area under the influence of general height falls.
An open wave that is currently being monitored by the National
Hurricane Center for tropical development (Invest 91L) will begin to
near the coastal Carolinas Wednesday morning, though recent model
runs suggest that only a modest increase in moisture could occur in
our area before a frontal boundary associated with an upper trough
sweeps the weak system out into the northern Atlantic. As far as
Invest 99L is concerned, the majority of global models do not
develop it to any noticeable extent, and keep it on a track that
would have almost no influence over our area. Both systems will
continue to be watched, but the likelihood of tropical impacts
through the extended period still looks quite low at the current
time.

As far as sensible weather is concerned, northeasterly flow at the
surface will keep the CWA relatively warm and dry Wednesday through
Friday. Guidance now disagrees on the timing of a frontal boundary
that approaches the area on Friday, though the front is generally
weak in most models. Without much moisture to work with, it does not
generate much QPF response, so pops were kept just below climo
through the end of next work week. Heights rise on Friday briefly
before a couple of shortwaves cross over the southern Appalachians
next weekend, and with the surface flow taking on a more
southeasterly component, the upper support coupled with better
moisture suggests that pops should be raised to near climo by the
end of the period. Max temps are above average for most of the
medium range, though modest height falls and an increase in sky
cover/pops led to max temps being decreased to normal levels by next
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convective chances this afternoon and
evening appear better than in recent days. Although model time
heights generally favor low clouds this afternoon, and again late
tonight and Sunday morning, cloud cover and heights only favor
restrictions at KAVL around dawn, with LIFR is expected. an IFR vsby
restriction at KAVL is expected at the same time, with MVFR at all
other sites. Of course afternoon and evening rainfall at foothill
sites could change things. Winds will generally favor the east this
afternoon outside the mountains, and the southeast at KAVL. Winds
back to the northeast east of the mountains tonight.

Outlook: A deep ridge of high pressure will persist across the
region through early next week. The environment should support mid
to late afternoon thunderstorms each day, primarily over the mtns
and adjacent foothills. Weak steering flow should favor iso to sct
coverage, with storms dissipating within two hours following sunset.
Patchy fog will be possible any morning following a late afternoon
to early evening shower or thunderstorm.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High  81%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%
KAVL       Low   55%     High 100%     Med   78%     High  80%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   63%     High  81%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  98%     High  97%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  90%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
108 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068-
501>510-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-281715-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
UNION-GREENWOOD-
108 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-SCZ009-014-281715-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION-YORK-CHESTER-
108 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
THE EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE I-77
CORRIDOR IN THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH AROUND 100 THIS
AFTERNOON IN MANY AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

NCZ036-056-271830-
IREDELL NC-CATAWBA NC-
207 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EASTERN
CATAWBA AND SOUTHWESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 207 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STATESVILLE...OR NEAR LAKE
NORMAN STATE PARK...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWTON...CONOVER...CLAREMONT...CATAWBA...LAKE NORMAN STATE
PARK...LOOKOUT SHOALS LAKE...LAKE NORMAN...MAIDEN...SHERRILLS FORD
AND OXFORD.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3581 8114 3578 8112 3578 8111 3580 8109
      3568 8089 3554 8094 3554 8096 3555 8096
      3555 8099 3559 8128 3582 8118 3583 8114
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 109DEG 13KT 3566 8099

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

SCZ007-271900-
SPARTANBURG SC-
229 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 228 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPARTANBURG...OR NEAR
COWPENS...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... SPARTANBURG...COWPENS...CEDAR
SPRINGS...BOILING SPRINGS SC...USC UPSTATE AND MAYO.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO
CREATE DEEP STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 8198 3508 8182 3506 8181 3504 8181
      3504 8180 3503 8179 3498 8177 3495 8176
      3490 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 079DEG 12KT 3500 8181

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

NCZ057-271900-
ROWAN NC-
231 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ROWAN COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 231 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALISBURY...OR NEAR GRANITE QUARRY...MOVING WEST
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SALISBURY...KANNAPOLIS...CHINA GROVE...LANDIS...ENOCHVILLE...GRANITE
QUARRY...ROCKWELL...FAITH...SPENCER AND HIGH ROCK LAKE.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8050 3551 8074 3554 8074 3562 8076
      3572 8076 3568 8033 3550 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 089DEG 21KT 3560 8043

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

NCZ036-056-271900-
IREDELL NC-CATAWBA NC-
236 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CATAWBA
AND SOUTHWESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 235 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STATESVILLE...OR NEAR LAKE
NORMAN STATE PARK...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... HICKORY...NEWTON...ST.
STEPHENS...CONOVER...MAIDEN...TROUTMAN...CLAREMONT... CATAWBA...LAKE
NORMAN STATE PARK AND LOOKOUT SHOALS LAKE.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 8086 3554 8089 3554 8096 3555 8096
      3556 8138 3580 8134 3580 8130 3581 8125
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 098DEG 27KT 3565 8097

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
302 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E ROCKWELL            35.56N 80.40W
08/27/2016                   ROWAN              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON SIDES RD IN
            ROCKWELL

&&

LEV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE MOUNT ULLA        35.63N 80.65W
08/27/2016                   ROWAN              NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED TREES DOWN ON MILLBRIDGE RD NEAR CHINA
            GROVE

&&

LEV