Drought worsened over parts of the Finger Lakes region and Central Southern Tier of New York during September. September rainfall amounts were again considerably below the average long term monthly trends.
Every event with a place to put it; 10 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
Drought worsened over parts of the Finger Lakes region and Central Southern Tier of New York during September. September rainfall amounts were again considerably below the average long term monthly trends. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought conditions continued to deteriorate, and more of the region was classified in extreme drought. Agricultural interests reported significant stress to non-irrigated crops, with many areas reporting expected losses to corn, soybean and hay yields. More communities began to place voluntary and mandatory water restrictions on their residents.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 6:39 PM EST, 5 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 739 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers with a chance of a thunderstorm will be possible this evening as a cold front cuts across New York and Pennsylvania. Cooler and drier weather will move into the region from Thursday into Saturday as a large area of Canadian high pressure builds across the Northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Updated at 545 pm... Cold front is currently located across Lake Ontario extending southwestward across southern Ontario. Scattered showers and even a thunderstorm are located along the front with thunder reported on the last ob at BUF. Meanwhile a band of light showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving southeast across northern Pa. Mainly dry weather prevails across central NY between these two systems. Expect scattered showers with isolated thunder to persist along the cold front for the next few hours as it tracks southeast to the Finger Lakes area by mid-to-late evening. Meanwhile light showers over northern Pa will continue to track east. Pops this evening will generally range from 20 to 40 percent with lowest values over the southern tier of NY into the Catskills which seem to be between the two areas of showers. Have lowered pops slightly over the next few hours to account for these trends... otherwise the current forecast looks to be in good shape. Previous discussion is below. Showers embedded within forcing due to right entrance region of upper jet laying across the area, coupled with weak and broad mid- level DPVA will continue to weaken and move south across NEPA through early evening. Likely PoPs for showers will trend downward into early evening. Meanwhile...surface cold front across lower Ontario will cross the region tonight. Convective re-development north of Lake Ontario is likely this afternoon/early evening, but will be encountering more stable air as it moves into NY. Models attempt to re-introduce showers/possible thunder into the area in the 21Z-06Z time frame...but activity likely to be pretty sparse and transient with little organization. Will bump up PoPs again up north for a few hours late today and evening...but overall trend tonight will be to become drier. Cloudy skies initially may dissipate some to thinner mid-high clouds this evening, however post-frontal clouds in still moist, cold advection airmass will likely form late night/early morning stratocu. Temps slowly fall this evening with a late night minimum in the lower 60s. High pressure builds in through Thursday night with a refreshing change to temperatures and humidity levels. Daytime highs Thursday to be solidly in the low-mid70s on northwest winds. It will feel somewhat Fall-like. Details of the forecast will be a bit tricky, trying to get the cloud cover correct in the cold advective flow across Lake Ontario with a sharp upper trof axis moving through. Morning stratocu likely to struggle to break up by noon, however, subsidence, overall drying in the atmosphere and early September sun should still be enough to get us to a partly sunny afternoon. Wind flow in the boundary layer becomes northeasterly on Thursday night helping to clear skies. With a drier airmass in place, look for temps easily dropping into the 50s by Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Uncertainty increases during this period as tropical Storm Hermine moves off the east coast. High pressure will be located over the Great Lakes and northeast Friday and Friday night. The result will be lots of sunshine Friday with high temperatures generally in the 70s. Friday night will be clear and cool then clouds will spread north toward the area on Saturday from Hermine moving northeast off the east coast. The uncertainty is related to the track of Hermine. Previous model runs were keeping the storm well offshore with high pressure ridging down the east coast allowing for a cool dry weekend. However there has been a major shift in the 12z run of the operational models with just about all of these models (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/Canadian) indicating a farther westward track keeping the storm near or just off the east coast as it tracks north toward Long Island. A shift like this indicates that there is lots of uncertainty in the forecast and later runs could go back to the east, however there is enough uncertainty to introduce a chance of showers for the eastern half of our forecast area starting late Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The forecast for the period from Saturday night through at least Monday is very uncertain at this point depending on details regarding the track of Hermine. Possibilities range from a track well offshore, which was being advertised by most of the operational guidance up until the 12z run, to a track much closer to the coast. Some models indicate that the storm may track close to the coast but could stall before coming far enough north to bring rain to northern Pa and central NY. With this much uncertainty all we can do at this point is to introduce some chc pops to the forecast starting late Saturday and going through Monday with the best chances over our southeastern counties from the Poconos to the Catskills. Regardless of the track of Hermine a ridge of high pressure should build over the area by the middle of next week bringing a return to warm dry weather. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 730 PM Update... VFR this evening. Passing light showers will affect AVP with isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm in NY until 04z. Cold front through SYR/RME now but some showers behind it near ROC. Front to continue south this evening into early morning. Behind the front ceilings should fall to MVFR and maybe vsbys all but SYR around 08z. Could be at fuel alternates ELM/BGM/ITH. Ceilings lift to VFR and scatter 13 to 16z. Winds SW around 5 knots ahead of front and w to nw at 5 behind. NW 7 to 10 knots Thursday. OUTLOOK... Thursday night to Saturday...VFR. Localized fog possible vicinity KELM. Sunday thru Monday...Low confidence forecast due to chance of tropical system entering vicinity of coastal Mid- Atlantic. VFR most likely...but MVFR/rain potential increasing. Tuesday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...JAB/MSE SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...TAC
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 252 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072-011900- NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN- SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO- OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- 252 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1003 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 NYZ017-018-025-044-010300- ONONDAGA NY-CORTLAND NY-TOMPKINS NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY- 1003 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CORTLAND...CAYUGA... NORTHEASTERN TOMPKINS AND SOUTHWESTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES ... AT 1001 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER OWASCO...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AUBURN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... CASOWASCO AROUND 1005 PM EDT. NILES AROUND 1010 PM EDT. CASCADE AROUND 1015 PM EDT. MORAVIA AND KELLOGGSVILLE AROUND 1020 PM EDT. MONTVILLE AROUND 1025 PM EDT. LOCKE AND SEMPRONIUS AROUND 1030 PM EDT. SCOTT AROUND 1035 PM EDT. GROTON AROUND 1040 PM EDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. IF ON OR NEAR OWASCO LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM. && LAT...LON 4281 7665 4294 7648 4262 7594 4242 7618 TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 312DEG 20KT 4283 7650 TAC
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Drought ranged from just general dryness over the eastern part of the county to nearly severe drought across the western third.
Severe drought conditions continued this month across the entire county.
Drought conditions ranged from generally dry over the eastern quarter of the county to moderate drought in the west.
Drought conditions ranged from generally dry over the eastern quarter of the county to moderate drought in the west.
Extreme drought conditions existed in this county for the entire month of September.
Extreme drought conditions existed in this county for the entire month of September.
Drought conditions ranged from moderate drought over the far southeastern portion of the county to extreme drought across the northern 1/4.
Drought conditions ranged from moderate drought over the far southeastern portion of the county to extreme drought across the northwest.
Extreme drought was reported over the entire county during September.
Extreme drought was reported over the entire county during September.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, September 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 657254, 657255, 657256, 657257, 657258, 657259, 657260, 657261, 657262, 657263.