A hot and humid air mass was in place over eastern New York on Thursday, July 14th. As an upper level disturbance and surface frontal trough approached the area, showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours.
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The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
A hot and humid air mass was in place over eastern New York on Thursday, July 14th. As an upper level disturbance and surface frontal trough approached the area, showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours. A few of these thunderstorms became severe, producing damaging winds and heavy rainfall.
Thunderstorms ended by the evening hours with the passage of a cold front.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 8:13 AM EST, 3 hours 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 913 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure well off the eastern seaboard will continue to result in a hot and humid southerly flow into the region through today. A trough of low pressure moving through will bring showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be severe with strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. A cold front will cross the region on Friday...possibly triggering widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler and drier weather is expected over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 900 AM EDT...12Z modified KALB sounding yields SBCAPES between 1500-2000 J/KG with high PWATs just over 1.70 inches. Of more interest is the low LCL and low level hodographs signatures which may enhance the low level vorticity per the soundings and upstream VWPs. 1KM Visible imagery did show lots of stratus hanging around the higher terrain and several breaks within the Capital Region. This has resulted in pockets of insolation locally with more breaks noted upstream into central and western NY. As heating is underway, cumulus field is expanding at this time. H2O vapor loop reveals a short wave/vort max currently rotating across along the state border of PA/NY to our west. Some showers have already formed and per the latest hires forecasts, a line of convection should evolve within the next few hours with the approach of this wave and pre-frontal trough. 12Z SWODY1 remains within the Slight Risk Category at this time with now a 2% contour for tornado potential. We will issue an SPS soon for convective outlook. Prev Disc... As of 628 AM EDT...Plenty of low stratus clouds still in place across most of the region early this morning. It is another warm and muggy early morning, with temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A pre-frontal trough was positioned across the eastern Great Lakes and will move eastward into our region today. A few showers have developed north and east of Albany associated with a weak disturbance, but the main activity is expected during the afternoon hours. A fairly active day in terms of severe weather potential is forecast across much of the area this afternoon into early evening. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded to a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be somewhat widespread, with several hi-res models showing a fairly solid line of convection moving from west to east just ahead of the pre-frontal trough from early to mid afternoon across eastern New York and late afternoon into early evening across western New England. The strong July sun should be able to burn off part to most of the stratus cloud deck, allowing for sufficient instability to develop. Forecast SBCAPE from the NCAR hi-res ensemble expected to range from around 2000-3000 J/Kg, with 0-6 km shear increasing to around 30-35 kt during the afternoon. These CAPE/shear magnitudes along with the forcing form the pre-frontal trough support development of multicell clusters or lines, with damaging winds the main threat. Mid level lapse rates look relatively weak around 6 degC/km, but if large magnitudes of CAPE are realized, large hail cannot be ruled out either. Deep moisture in place with PWATS of 1.5 to near 2 inches, which is +1 to +3 STDEV above normal for mid July. As a result, locally heavy rainfall with isolated flash flooding is possible especially for urban and poor drainage areas. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday due to convection developing and moving through during the afternoon, but still expecting highs in the mid to upper 80s for most of the region. Dewpoints may actually rise from the mid and upper 60s into the lower 70s, which will result in heat indices in the mid to upper 90s for many valley locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The main line of strong to severe thunderstorms should shift east of our area by early evening, with just a isolated to scattered showers and storms through the rest of the night. The main cold front will be approaching from the eastern Great Lakes and southeast Canada, so there will still be some forcing ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to be non-severe tonight. It will be another mild night with lows in the 60s. The main cold front should finally move southeastward across the region Friday afternoon, but temperatures will be very warm ahead of the front from the Hudson Valley eastward with upper 80s to lower 90s expected for highs. Dewpoints should be lower than Thursday though, as deeper moisture will shift well east of our area. So heat indices should be close to actual temperatures. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible just ahead of and along the cold front, however instability will be much weaker than Thursday, so thunderstorms are anticipated to be non-severe. Showers and storms will decrease in coverage Friday night, but a stray shower cannot be ruled out into Saturday, as a short wave trough move across northern NY. Little if any instability will be present, so will not mention thunder at this time. It will be relatively cooler for Saturday, but still close to normal for mid July. Humidity levels will be noticeable lower as well. Dry conditions expected Saturday night as high pressure builds in from the west. Min temps will be cooler than the past several nights with the drier air mass in place. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The weekend will end on a fair and dry note for mid-July...but unsettled weather with zonal mid and upper flow returns for early next week. The latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian GGEM/GEFS and WPC graphics all indicate sfc high pressure will build in over NY and New England on Sunday. H850 temps will be very seasonable in the +13C to +15C range with high temps getting into the 80-85F range in the major river valleys...and mainly 70s over the hills and mountains. Abundant sunshine will occur due to the strong subsidence with the anticyclone...and humidity levels will be very comfortable with sfc dewpts mainly in the 50s. Mid and high clouds gradually increase Sunday night into Monday morning...as a frontal boundary remains south of New England...and a short-wave trough...and a cold front approach from the northern Great Lakes Region...and southeast Canada. Lows will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Monday-Monday night...the mid level flow is fairly flat...as cold front moves south/southeast from St Lawrence River Valley to over upstate NY and Northern New England by Monday night. A short-wave will also quickly move into the region by the afternoon. Increasing low-level moisture with sfc dewpts rising into the 60s and MUCAPE values in the 500-1500 J/kg range on the latest EC support some strong convection...possibly organized deep convection with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30-40 kts. A chance of thunderstorms was kept in the forecast from the afternoon into the early evening. Max temps get back into the mid 80s to near 90F in the lower elevations...and mid 70s to lower 80s over the mtns. Lows only fall off into the mid and upper 60s...except some upper 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain. Tue-Tue night...The unsettled weather continues with the cold front sluggishly moving south/southeast across the forecast area. The amount of heating and instability looks questionable right now. A chance of showers and thunderstorms was continued with the better threat of some stronger storms south of the I-90 corridor. The medium range guidance is converging on the front moving well south of the region by Wed morning. Temps look seasonable here. Wednesday...Humidity levels decrease some with a surface ridge building in from the Great Lakes Region. The fair and dry weather should continue further into the week. Highs once again will be close to mid-July seasonal values with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s...and highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the fcst area. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A warm and humid air mass will continue to be over the region today. A prefrontal surface trough ahead of a cold front will focus widespread showers and thunderstorms...especially this afternoon. The showers and thunderstorms should diminish by the late afternoon/early evening. The MVFR stratus at KPOU/KPSF/KGFL will gradually burn off btwn 12Z-14Z with VFR conditions returning everywhere. Showers and thunderstorms will impact the ERN NY and WRN New England terminals btwn 17Z-23z. Our confidence was high enough to place thunderstorms in for all the TAF sites from 19Z to 22Z. Expect MVFR or even IFR or lower conditions in the thunderstorms. High MVFR/VFR conditions should return after 23Z briefly...as more mist/fog and stratus may form again after 04Z/FRI. We have forecast MVFR/IFR conditions for now...especially for mist. The winds will be mainly south at 5-10 KT this morning...and will be mainly south to southwest at 8-14 KT in the afternoon, with some gusts of 20-25 kts possible at KALB. The winds will become light to calm tonight. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure well off the eastern seaboard will continue to result in a hot and humid southerly flow into the region through today. A trough of low pressure moving through will bring showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be severe with strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. A cold front will cross the region on Friday...possibly triggering widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler and drier weather is expected over the weekend. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to be around 55 to 65 percent this afternoon, increasing to maximum values of between 90 and 100 percent tonight. Minimum RH values will be around 40 to 55 percent on Friday. Winds today will be southerly around 10 to 15 mph with gusts near 20 mph. Winds tonight will be southwest at 5 to 10 mph, becoming westerly on Friday and increasing to 10 to 15 mph with some higher gusts during the afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... With a warm and humid air mass in place, showers and thunderstorms are likely today along a trough of low pressure. Storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall as Precipitable water values will rise to around 1.5 to near 2 inches, which is 1 to 3 standard deviations above normal. The locally heavy rainfall could result in some minor urban flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas, as well as isolated flash flooding. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday, with drier weather forecast for the upcoming weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...JPV HYDROLOGY...JPV
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 437 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084-VTZ013>015-151100- NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE- SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER- SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY- WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE- WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER- WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- 437 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD HIGHER VALUES OCCUR AND EXCEED 100...A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BE ISSUED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 930 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084-VTZ013>015-141700- NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE- SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER- SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY- EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER- WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA- WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS- NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON- WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...GAYLORDSVILLE... NEW MILFORD...TERRYVILLE...THOMASTON...DALTON...HANCOCK... PITTSFIELD...FLORIDA...NORTH ADAMS...SANDISFIELD... GREAT BARRINGTON...SOUTH EGREMONT...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY... MCKEEVER...OLD FORGE...ATWELL...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD... LONG LAKE...SABATTIS...HOFFMEISTER...WELLS...ILION...HERKIMER... LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE... JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...SARATOGA LAKE...SARATOGA SPRINGS... BOLTON LANDING...JOHNSBURG...NORTH CREEK...NORTH RIVER... WARRENSBURG...HAGUE...HULETTS LANDING...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE... COBLESKILL...BREAKABEEN...GILBOA...LIVINGSTONVILLE... MIDDLEBURGH...NORTH BLENHEIM...JEFFERSON...MARIAVILLE... DELANSON...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BURNT HILLS... BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...CLIFTON PARK...WATERFORD... WESTERLO...ALTAMONT...BERNE...KNOX...PRESTON HOLLOW...ALBANY... TROY...BERLIN...EAGLE BRIDGE...HOOSICK FALLS...STEPHENTOWN... HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...PRATTSVILLE...CATSKILL... COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON... NEW LEBANON...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY... WEST SHOKAN...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...SUNDOWN...KINGSTON... NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING... WINGDALE...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...STANFORDVILLE... PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...CAROGA LAKE...GLENS FALLS... WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE... GREENWICH...MIDDLE FALLS...NORTH EASTON...STAMFORD...BENNINGTON... WOODFORD STATE PARK...POWNAL...STRATTON...LONDONDERRY... BRATTLEBORO...GUILFORD CENTER...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS 930 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 ...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY... THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE TIME FRAME FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE APPROXIMATELY NOON UNTIL 6PM. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE DOWN TREE AND POWERLINES FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES...HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. REMEMBER, IF THUNDER ROARS HEAD INDOORS OR SEE A FLASH...DASH INSIDE FOR SAFETY. FOR FLOODING...TURN AROUND DON/T DROWN. PLEASE MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTIONS IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING HAZARDOUS WEATHER SITUATION.
The Albany radar (KENX), 28 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:01 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
A large tree was uprooted by thunderstorm winds at the corner of Van Curler Avenue and Rugby Road in Schenectady. The fallen tree also downed power lines and damaged a car as well.
A tree fell onto a power line at Six Flags Great Escape in Queensbury due to thunderstorm winds. Power was lost to the theme park for several hours. Some people were trapped on rides up to thirty minutes due to the loss of power.
A portion of County Route 10 between Latimer Hill Road and Old Sharon Road in Ames was closed due to downed power lines from thunderstorm winds.
Lightning struck a tree near McClennan Street in Niskayuna during a thunderstorm. The downed tree fell on a car.
A tree was downed along Interstate 87 (The Adirondack Northway) between Exit 15 and Exit 16 due to thunderstorm winds. The downed tree blocked the left two northbound lanes of the highway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 638150, 638156, 638158, 638159, 638153.