A passing cold front triggered isolated severe thunderstorms in Orange and Suffolk Counties.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OKX wrote it up.
A passing cold front triggered isolated severe thunderstorms in Orange and Suffolk Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 2:37 PM EST, 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
337 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the region tonight, and then high
pressure builds in from the west on Saturday before moving
offshore on Sunday. A mesoscale convective system will likely pass
south of the Tri-State Region during the beginning of the week. A
warm and increasingly humid airmass will then build into the area
through the remainder of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Tornado Watch 313 remains in effect for most of the Tri-State
area.
There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms across NYC, NE
NJ, and SW CT, as well as an enhanced risk for severe
thunderstorms across most of southern CT and western Long Island.
There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for eastern Long
Island.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of a cold
front moving into western NY/PA, and those storms continue to
track to the north and east.
SBCAPE has increased to 1500-200 J/kg, along with 35-40 KT of
Bulk Shear, and a Lifted Index of -4 to -5. There is also abundant
low-level moisture with PWATs up to 1.5 inches. The Bulk
Richardson Number also ranges from 30 to 40, indicating that
supercells are possible.
Storms will continue to develop and move into the local area
through this evening with the potential for damaging winds, large
hail, and tornadoes. Heavy rain may result in localized flooding.
The thunderstorm threat tapers off from west to east this evening
with the loss of diurnal heating and with the atmosphere
stabilizing. Most showers will end by midnight for the western
half of the CWA, and by daybreak for the eastern half.
Cold front passes through the region late tonight, and winds shift
to a W-NW flow, allowing for a drier airmass to spread into the
region.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s inland to the upper 60s
in/around NYC.
There is a moderate risk for rip currents at Atlantic facing
beaches through this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Heights will rise on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the
north and west. The atmosphere dries out fairly quickly, resulting
in plenty of sunshine on Saturday. Highs will be near normal,
generally topping off in the upper 70s to low 80.
Mainly clear with a light west flow on Saturday night. Radiational
cooling possible for areas across the Lower Hudson Valley,
interior portions of southern CT, as well as eastern Long Island.
Lows there could drop into the low 50s. Otherwise, lows will be in
the low to mid 60s, and possibly into the upper 60s in NYC.
There is a low risk for rip currents at Atlantic Ocean facing
beaches on Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mainly dry forecast remains in place through the long term. It
appears that a mesoscale convective system, possibly in the form
of a mesoscale convective vortex, will track from the Ohio Valley
Monday, and emerge off the New Jersey coast Tuesday. All
indications are that this system will remain just south of the
area, and that impacts will be minimal to none. However, this is
several days out so slight chances for showers and thunderstorms
will me maintained both in case there are peripheral effects or in
case the system itself tracks further north. A mid level thermal
ridge then builds in through the end of the week, with warming
temperatures and gradually increasing humidity.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front approaches this evening and passes through this
tonight. High pressure builds on Saturday.
Some fluctuations in ceilings from MVFR to VFR expected through
the late afternoon. IFR is possible at the coast.
Showers and thunderstorms will impact most terminals into the
evening hours. A few thunderstorms may include gusty westerly
gusts over 40 KT.
S-SSE winds 10-15 KT into the evening. Winds will shift to the W
and then NW behind the front overnight.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings and for
thunderstorms into this evening.
KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings and for
thunderstorms into this evening.
KEWR TAF Comments: Thunderstorm approaching the terminal from the
south. Wind gusts to 50 kt possible. Amendments likely for
ceilings and for thunderstorms into this evening.
KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings and for
thunderstorms into this evening.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings and for
thunderstorms into this evening.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for ceilings and for
thunderstorms into this evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Afternoon-Sunday Night...VFR. NW-W flow Saturday and
WSW- SW flow Sunday. Gusts up to 20KT for both days. Winds
diminish at night.
.Monday...VFR.
.Monday Night-Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance for
Showers/Thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front will move across the waters this evening with strong
to severe storms possible through this evening. A Tornado Watch
is in effect for ANZ338 (NY Harbor), ANZ335 (W LI Sound), and
ANZ355 (W Ocean).
South winds will generally range from 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT, and then winds shift to the W-NW behind the passage of the
cold front. Winds should stay below SCA levels through Saturday
night, but cannot rule out gusts to 20 KT Saturday afternoon. Seas
will average 1-2 feet on E LI Sound, and around 1 foot on W LI
Sound, NY Harbor, and LI Bays. Seas on the ocean will range from
2-4 feet.
Winds and waves are likely to remain below small craft advisory
levels Sunday through Thursday, with high pressure generally in
control of the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Around 1/3" to 2/3" basin average QPF is expected into this
evening. However, with precipitable waters from 1.5 to 1.75
inches, and the potential for strong convection, locally heavy
rainfall is expected. Areas receiving locally heavy rainfall
could experience minor flooding of urban/poor drainage areas.
There is a minimal threat for flash flooding, but it is possible
if thunderstorms train over each other.
Dry conditions then on tap from late tonight through Sunday.
Widespread significant rainfall is not expected Sunday through
Friday at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MPSHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 139 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 NYZ075-178-179-021000- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 139 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 ...TORNADO WATCH 313 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. TORNADO WATCH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY FOR THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. NYZ080-081-021000- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 139 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY FOR THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-176-177-021000- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD- SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON- WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX- WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU- 139 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 ...TORNADO WATCH 313 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. TORNADO WATCH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY FROM THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA ON WEST AND NORTH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ078-079-021000- NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 139 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY FROM THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA ON WEST AND NORTH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. ANZ330-340-345-350-353-021000- LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS- SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY- MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM- FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM- 139 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY FOR THE WATERS AROUND WESTERN LONG ISLAND. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. ANZ335-338-355-021000- LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- NEW YORK HARBOR-SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM- 139 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 ...TORNADO WATCH 313 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. TORNADO WATCH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY FOR THE WATERS AROUND WESTERN LONG ISLAND. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
225 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016
NYZ067-011930-
ORANGE-
225 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY...
AT 224 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
MONTGOMERY...OR NEAR WALDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWBURGH...MIDDLETOWN...WALDEN...WARWICK...GOSHEN...NEW WINDSOR...
CHESTER...MONTGOMERY...FLORIDA...GARDNERTOWN...OAKLAND...
WASHINGTONVILLE...MAYBROOK...ORANGE LAKE...BALMVILLE...PINE BUSH...
SCOTCHTOWN...FIRTHCLIFFE AND VAILS GATE.
LAT...LON 4150 7448 4157 7442 4160 7435 4160 7433
4163 7426 4163 7425 4160 7425 4158 7413
4161 7413 4160 7409 4161 7407 4158 7405
4159 7395 4153 7400 4145 7399 4131 7441
4150 7467
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 241DEG 22KT 4152 7427
PWSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016
NYZ067-012030-
ORANGE-
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...
AT 354 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PORT JERVIS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIDDLETOWN...WARWICK...GOSHEN...CHESTER...FLORIDA...UNIONVILLE...
OAKLAND AND SCOTCHTOWN.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
LAT...LON 4146 7475 4148 7475 4150 7472 4150 7448
4157 7442 4158 7439 4159 7435 4140 7419
4124 7445 4136 7469 4137 7469 4139 7471
4140 7474 4143 7474 4143 7476 4145 7476
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 240DEG 32KT 4138 7472
NVPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
412 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0340 PM TSTM WND DMG UNION 40.70N 74.27W
07/01/2016 UNION NJ FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
SMALL TREES DOWN
&&
CJBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0340 PM TSTM WND DMG SOUTH ORANGE 40.75N 74.26W
07/01/2016 ESSEX NJ FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
POWER LINES DOWN
&&
CJBThe Albany radar (KENX), 145 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:14 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple trees and wires were reported down in Greenville.
There were multiple reports of trees and wires down throughout Riverhead.
Trees were reported down in Mattituck.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 653746, 653749, 653753.