A slow-moving thunderstorm that developed over the Dog Head burn scar above Chilili forced a surge of water down the drainage channel under the highway 337 bridge. Water was out of bank at this location and into the yard of a nearby home on the northwest corner of the drainage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A slow-moving thunderstorm that developed over the Dog Head burn scar above Chilili forced a surge of water down the drainage channel under the highway 337 bridge. Water was out of bank at this location and into the yard of a nearby home on the northwest corner of the drainage. Residents were adding sandbags to the area to prevent additional flooding. No damage was reported to the residence.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 10:40 AM MST, 2 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1140 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper high meandering over NM next 24 hours. Mts occasionally obscd in sct showers and thunderstorms. Cell movement to be erratic and driven by terrain and outflow boundaries. Localized mvfr cigs/vsbys and wnd gusts to around 40kt possible in the stronger storms. Storms along the central mt chain may result in localized gusty east winds into the RGV at times. Sct showers with isold embedded thunderstorms may persist aft 06Z, and local mvfr cigs may develop over portions of the central and ne highlands and ern plains between 26/06Z and 26/12Z, potentially affecting KLVS and KTCC. && .PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016... .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will generally trend downward today and especially Tuesday as some better moisture arrives. An uptick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be noted today and especially Tuesday, when a weak disturbance will pass just north of New Mexico enhancing precipitation. A few storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain at rates over 1 inch per hour both days, mainly over western and northern parts of the state. Drier air will move in during the middle to latter part of the week with a downtick in thunderstorm coverage and rain intensity. Temperatures should also trend upward again. && .DISCUSSION... The upper trough exiting the northern and central Rockies onto the Great Plains Tuesday will shift the loosely organized mid-level high pressure system NW of NM. The high is progged to vary its position around the NV/UT/AZ border through Thursday or Friday before potentially drifting eastward toward the Four Corners again. Models aren't very consistent on when or how far east the high will drift. Thus, after PWATs peak from 1 to 1.25 inches Tuesday, they will fall to the 0.5-0.75 inch range across central and northwest areas during the mid to latter part of the week. The decrease in moisture will be less noted across eastern areas, where a back door cold front may arrive Wednesday. This front could keep convection pretty active across the east for another day, before it trends downward there, too. The southwest mountains should be favored areas for showers and storms during the latter half of the week as better moisture lingers longest there. At this time, Thursday is looking like the warmest day of the week with high temperatures around 3 to 14 degrees above normal. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... Deeper moisture in place today and Tuesday is expected to create a significant uptick in the coverage of slow-moving storms with heavy rainfall. An east/northeast wind shift entering the eastern plains today will help focus more widespread convection over the plains, as well as trend temps down several degrees from the recent record heat. The potential for flooding on recent burn scars will increase the next 2 days compared to much of this season. An unfortunate drying and warming trend will begin again over western NM Wednesday as the center of the upper high rebuilds and focuses on the Four Corners. A large dry airmass currently over the Great Basin will move under this high and bring a return to very low min rh into Friday. Dewpoint values may fall as low as the upper 20's across San Juan County Thursday. Storm coverage will mainly focus on the higher terrain each day with much smaller heavy rainfall footprints through Friday and perhaps even Saturday. Fortunately, no signficant winds appear likely outside of erratic and gusty outflows. The upper high is shown to drift east starting Saturday and Sunday as a trough develops along the west coast. This could bring a return to a more typical monsoon flow pattern over central and western NM for much of next week. Models are however at odds with how far east the upper high shifts. Given the overall tendency for the high center to focus over NM this season will be conservative in advertising any change to cooler temps and more widespread storm coverage for now. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 544 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 NMZ501>540-261200- NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS- NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS- WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS- SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS- WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY- LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA- MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA- LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY- CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA- FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY- HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY- QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY- CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY- 544 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND BELOW RECENT AND BURN SCARS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TUESDAY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AND BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 44
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
144 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016
NMZ527-252015-
RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
144 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM MDT...
AT 144 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES SOUTH OF SEGUNDO...OR 18 MILES WEST OF RATON. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
COLFAX COUNTY.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON HIGHWAYS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.
&&
LAT...LON 3691 10449 3687 10452 3688 10455 3686 10456
3686 10454 3685 10453 3665 10469 3683 10487
3699 10479 3699 10465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 297DEG 3KT 3687 10477
33The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:28 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Video footage showed torrent of water flowing down arroyo through Chilili up to base of the highway 337 bridge. Water was flowing out of bank into the yard of a nearby residence but no damage was sustained. Sandbags worked great to block the water from the home.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 641460.