A stalled frontal boundary over southeastern New Mexico interacted with a deep fetch of subtropical moisture and a weak upper level low pressure system early on the 21st. The area from Roswell to Lake Arthur picked up between 2 and 3 inches of rain during the early morning hours.
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The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A stalled frontal boundary over southeastern New Mexico interacted with a deep fetch of subtropical moisture and a weak upper level low pressure system early on the 21st. The area from Roswell to Lake Arthur picked up between 2 and 3 inches of rain during the early morning hours. This heavy rainfall led to flooding of a few creeks and low lying areas. The most significant flooding impacts occurred around Lake Arthur where Walnut Creek overflowed it's banks onto Spence Road, Jackson Road, and Highway 2. Fortunately, no property damage was incurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 21, 5:08 AM MST, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 608 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE Areas of MVFR and, much more locally, IFR cigs will be impacting east half of NM including KLVS and less likely KROW and KTCC until roughly 16z, but kept out of KTCC due to confidence being too low. Expecting at least a little more shra and tsra activity this aftn compared to Sat aftn across much of the fcst area. TSRA impact potential at nearly any TAF site although the best chances will be at KLVS, KSAF, KAEG and KABQ, mainly between 20Z and 03Z. Relatively brief MVFR cigs and vsby are possible with the stronger storms with a slight risk of very short-lived IFR conditions. Mt obscurations also a pretty good possibility with the more significant activity. The shra/tsra coverage is likely to diminish but not entirely end after about 03Z. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION...432 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016... .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the western two-thirds of New Mexico again this afternoon and will persist into the evening hours. These storms may produce locally heavy rainfall through this evening. Rainfall chances will begin to decrease over the region beginning on Monday afternoon as drier air moves into New Mexico from the west. A disturbance will move into the state on Thursday, increasing rain chances again through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Models are in reasonable synoptic agreement through Day 5 with a weak upper ridge moving into the Four Corners region by Monday morning, then being displaced as a closed low currently off the coast of California moves eastward into the Southwest by Tuesday. Where the models are differing is the amount of dry air that will be advected in from the west with this trough. The GFS is the driest with 1000-500mb layer RH values falling into the 50-60% range by Tuesday, while the ECMWF and the NAM maintain a noticeably moister layer through the same time period. With this in mind, the forecast through Tuesday trended overall towards the GFS with a gradual decrease in rain chances through Tuesday. Storm motion today will be reasonably slow and with precipitable water values near normal, localized heavy rainfall will be possible. With the approach of the trough on Tuesday, storm motion should increase although PoPs are decreasing. Wednesday into Thursday, a trough will push through the northern half of the state an upper ridge builds over the Southeastern U.S. Rain chances will increase on Thursday as some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will begin to push into the area as the trough moves through. Through the week, temperatures will remain generally below climatology. && .FIRE WEATHER... Pretty quiet late night period across the fcst area overnight, but it will get much more active toward,and especially during, the aftn. In fact we should see at least a little more coverage of showers and storms today versus Sat and still favoring most the focused across western and central NM with the NW Plateau area being the least active within this whole area. Heavy rain will remain a concern, particularly from the Gila region east to the south central mtns and north into the northern mtns. Tue and perhaps slightly so Mon we should see a significant downtick in activity, particularly across west central, central and north central NM, as the more westerly and somewhat stronger flow aloft tries to drag in enough drier air in to suppress things somewhat. Since models have been been somewhat variable in their depictions still rather recently, confidence for this scenario is just moderate at this time. Of course if the drying is a little less extensive, as was the case this past Fri, the reduction in activity will be less than indicated and it could actually lead to a little more instability. There also could be a few more so- called called hybrid, in other words in between fully wet and fully dry, storms across the nw third or so of the state Tue. Another back door front will slide down the plains and westward as well Wed and Wed night. This will increase the potential and coverage of showers and storms across the east and perhaps to some degree across central NM. The front should push through the gaps of the central mountain chain as it pushes westward Wed night or Thu morn. Thu and Fri should be quite active with western areas seeing the greatest impact, at least on Thu, as further moisture is dragged into the area. Temperatures should largely remain below normal throughout the week, though Tue may see near to even slightly above normal aftn temps across the east. Ventilation rates will improve Sun, mainly east, though some spotty poor ventilation will persist across portions of west and north NM. Vent rates will continue to increase Mon and Tue with nearly all areas seeing very good excellent ventilation Tue. The back door front will lower vent rates on Wed into the poor to fair category across ne third to half of the fcst area. Good or better vent rates should be the rule the rest of the work week. 43 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 548 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016 NMZ501>540-221200- NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS- NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS- WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS- SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS- WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY- LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA- MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA- LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY- CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA- FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY- HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY- QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY- CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY- 548 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MID-AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING... ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENT AND OLDER BURN SCARS...STEEP TERRAIN...AND URBAN AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MONDAY OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS...STEEP TERRAIN...AND URBAN AREAS. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE REGION AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL BRING BACK THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637. YOU CAN ALSO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS AND PHOTOS ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG NMWX. 54/FONTENOT
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 158 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:01 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Walnut Creek overflowing banks on Spence Road, Jackson Road, and Highway 2 southwest of Lake Arthur. Roadways impassable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 646035.