S. A cold front had moved through southeast New Mexico the previous day.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
There was an upper trough over the Great Lakes region, and another strengthening upper trough over the southwestern U.S. A cold front had moved through southeast New Mexico the previous day. The upper trough over the southwestern U.S. increased lift over the region, and there was plentiful moisture across the area. These conditions allowed for flash flooding to occur in southeast New Mexico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 21, 4:20 AM MST, 5 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .DISCUSSION... Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... The main concern this forecast period are MVFR ceilings affecting area terminals this morning, with improvement not expected until around 15Z/16Z when ceilings lift and scatter out around 4-5kft. A few showers may affect CNM this morning, and while additional storms are possible this afternoon/evening, have not included mention due to timing uncertainty. Otherwise, VFR conditions with E/SE winds are expected from late this morning onward, with low ceilings expected to return after 22/06Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/ DISCUSSION... Not many changes to the current forecast, with relatively cool, wet wx on tap for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico into next week. Sfc analysis shows that the cold front has cleared the Big Bend Area, ushering in below-normal temperatures across the area. In the upper lvls, WV imagery shows the trough that brought the cold front to the region yesterday is ejecting NE thru the Great Lakes region, w/split flow around a ridge in the west centered over nrn CA and converging over the Arklatex. Sfc ridging will move off to the east today, allowing winds to veer back around to return flow overnight, and pushing a warm front north thru the area into Monday. The low-lvl theta-e ridge currently lies over the SW portion of the FA, and models develop this NE into the area over the next 72 hours, orienting it SW-NE across West Texas and SE NM by Tue/Wed. In general, models keep the upper ridge over the Gulf Coast states into the extended, leaving our area under SW flow aloft and allowing multiple disturbances to move thru the area. Ensembles show most of the anomalously high PWAT still lies further east across central Texas, but does extend into the Davis/Apache Mtns, so opportunities for decent rains exist, especially in the short term. Temps into the extended will be tricky due to expected cloud cover/precip, but models generally warm H85 temps throughout the week. However, things should stay below normal as far as highs go, w/increased moisture keeping mins above normal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 83 69 83 73 / 20 20 50 30 Carlsbad 82 68 86 69 / 40 30 30 30 Dryden 82 72 80 73 / 40 40 50 20 Fort Stockton 84 68 83 70 / 30 20 40 30 Guadalupe Pass 71 61 75 63 / 50 40 40 30 Hobbs 81 64 84 67 / 10 20 30 20 Marfa 75 60 76 63 / 40 40 40 50 Midland Intl Airport 83 68 83 72 / 20 20 40 20 Odessa 83 68 83 72 / 20 20 40 20 Wink 85 69 85 72 / 20 20 30 20 && .MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NM...None. TX...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 308 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-220815- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS- LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU- BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 308 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 /208 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ARROYOS...DRAWS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND OTHER AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WATER. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH TO THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 169 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:31 UTC.
6 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain fell across Eddy County and produced flash flooding about 20 miles north of Carlsbad. There was six inches of water running across County Road 34. No damage was reported.
Heavy rain fell across Eddy County and produced flash flooding in Carlsbad. There was significant ongoing street flooding. Lea Street in Carlsbad was flooded curb to curb six to twelve inches deep at some intersections. The cost of damage is a very rough estimate.
Heavy rain fell across Eddy County and produced flash flooding near and on the south side of Carlsbad. There was major flooding of US Highway 62/180 from the Carlsbad Airport north to Walmart in South Carlsbad at the junction of Center Street. The highway was flooded curb to curb six inches to a foot deep. The cost of damage is a very rough estimate.
Heavy rain fell across Eddy County and produced flash flooding. A cooperative observer reported one to two feet of water from Last Chance Creek running over the road about twelve miles west of the Cavern City Air Terminal. The cost of damage is a very rough estimate.
Heavy rain fell across Eddy County and produced flash flooding southwest of Carlsbad. County Road 408 intersecting with County Road 672 was flooded. The cost of damage is a very rough estimate.
Heavy rain fell across Eddy County and produced flash flooding in Carlsbad. County Road 672 in Carlsbad had four to five feet of flowing water across low water crossings. The cost of damage is a very rough estimate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 652782, 650966, 650975, 650987, 652835, 652839.