Heavy Snow in Nevada, December 10, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
328 PM PST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Pacific moisture will continue to bring active weather
to the northern half of Nevada through early Sunday. Valley rain
or wintry mix with mountain snow is expected to intensify tomorrow
across northern Nevada Saturday. Two or more feet of snow is
possible in the Ruby Mountains with lesser amounts in the
mountains and higher terrain of northern Elko county. Quieter
weather is expected Sunday and Monday before the next wave of
moisture affects the region for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday. Atmospheric river event will
continue to impact the region through early Sunday morning.
Plentiful Pacific moisture and broad low-level vertical motion
across the region will yield a widespread valley rain possibly
rain/snow mix and heavy mountain snow event across northeastern
Nevada beginning tonight across far northern Nevada. Models are in
good agreement in shifting the precip shield southward through the
day on Saturday. Elevation-based winter storm warning was issued for
south-central Elko county along with an advisory for higher
elevations in White Pine county. Snow levels range from 5500 ft
farther north to around 7500 ft in southern White Pine county
during much of the event tomorrow. Precip should begin to taper
off late Saturday night and exit the region Sunday morning
allowing for a dry and quiet start to next week.

1 to 2 feet of snow in the Rubies and peaks of northern Elko
county is expected by Sunday morning with 3 feet still possible
along the highest peaks in the Rubies. Snow levels should be
watched closely as this could add a few inches of snow to the
higher terrain and mid slopes across northeastern Nevada.

Temperatures will remain in large part above freezing across
northern Nevada with below freezing lows across the southern CWA.
Temperatures will again rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s
across Elko County to the 50s in northern Nye county. Populated
valley locations could see a changeover to all snow early Sunday
morning but by that time precip should be ending across the area.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Friday. The models start
out disagreeing pretty badly and then end up with irreconcilable
differences. The strategy then has been to not deviate much from
the current package except where absolutely necessary (in the case
of a model flip flop) or to come to collaborative agreement with
surround weather offices.

Bottom line: the long term period is fraught with short waves and
periods of sufficient moisture and instability to warrant keeping
pops and qpf in most of the time.

The challenge o' the day seems to be whether to raise the freezing
level enough to produce rain at most locations. The final judgment
is to creep the warm air north as the models flip flop between
roughly anti-cyclonic zonal flow, and short ridges with short
waves in-between. So the precip changes from snow over the
northern two-thirds of the region to a mix of rain/snow over the
northern two-thirds to rain in the south and snow in the north as
the upper flow buckles and finally brings a bit more cold air
later in the period.

Winds are not spectacularly interesting to talk about as they do
not reach advisory criteria in the models.

High temps will drop from the 30s under cloudy precipy skies to
the 20s next Friday as colder air advects in. Low drop from the
teens and 20s to the singles and teens.

&&

.AVIATION...Deteriorating conditions at all sites through 00Z
Sunday. A developing winter system will drop ceilings and
visibility into the IFR range at KWMC and KEKO, and KELY to MVFR.
KTPH will also see cigs drop to mid levels with the chance for
VCSH later in the TAF period. Winds may gust into the 20s knots at
KELY, but lower speeds at KWMC...KEKO...and KTPH. Temperatures
will drop to below freezing again over night and so runways and
other outside equipment may gather a layer of semi-liquid precip
that will freeze.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Northern Elko
County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range.

&&

93/98/98