Damaging Wind in Nevada, August 26, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
243 PM PDT Fri Aug 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms are possible across White Pine
and northern Nye counties this afternoon and Saturday afternoon.
Otherwise, dry conditions with relatively light winds will
continue through the weekend for northern Nevada. Warm days, cool
night and dry conditions will continue for the entire state Sunday
and Monday before the next storm system brings increased winds and
chances showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of
Nevada.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday. Satellite imagery shows
building convection across White Pine and northern Nye counties
this afternoon. This activity is being aided by a mid level short
wave trough moving southeast across the state juxtaposed with
sufficient monsoon moisture and daytime insolation. Strong
northerly flow behind the trough will act to shove remaining
moisture southeast Saturday with a continued thunderstorm threat
confined to far southeast White Pine and central Nye counties.
Ridging will build across central CA into NV bringing temperatures
up a few degrees Sunday into Monday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Friday. Upper ridge over
the west coast is depressed by large upper northeast Pacific
trough, into an other-worldly skinny, northeast-southwest shape
with its axis over roughly eastern Nevada. It quickly moves
southeast and dies with onslaught of Pac trough. By Tuesday, the
models agree on a trough over the west coast but the orientation
and shape differ from model to model and run to run. Overall, it's
southwest flow for the central and northern Great Basin through
most of the long term forecast...meaning mostly dry flow. Tough to
pinpoint exactly where dry storms will occur, but best places to
place money on will be the Utah border with sufficient mid level
moisture, and western Humboldt County with better dynamics.

Deepest part of troughs (pick yer model) moves over the region
late Wednesday and into Thursday so winds pick up, especially over
eastern Nevada and the central Nevada highlands.

Aaaaannndddd....high temps on Friday mostly in the 70s...with one
or two 80s...and one or two that never make out of the 60s. Lows
in the low 40s to upper 30s Saturday morning with the exception of
extreme south part of northern Nye County with a few low 50s, and
of course, the northern high valleys where they could drop into
the upper teens in the well known cold spots. Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...VFR at all sites through 00Z Sunday. Between 00Z and
06Z Saturday...a few cumulus buildups or even TS may be visible
from KELY and KTPH but expected to remain away from the fields.
Same story Saturday afternoon around KELY and KTPH. Generally gust
at all sites each afternoon. Dying down after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A mix of wet and dry isolated showers and
thunderstorms are developing across fire zones 455 and 457 this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow as well
but are expected to be confined to far southern portion of fire
zone 457 and far southeastern 455. Otherwise, dry weather and
light winds will exist for all other fire zones through early next
week.

Overall atmospheric pattern will change by the middle of next
week as several short wave disturbances round the base of a broad
Pacific trough and subsequent expected formation of a strong
Pacific Northwest storm system. This will cause winds to increase
substantially across Nevada beginning Tuesday with elevated winds
expected through the end of next week. This will pose a fire
weather hazard as relative humidities and atmospheric moisture
remain low within the broad, strong southwest flow pattern.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

93/98/98/93