Easterly flow pushed seabreeze thunderstorms towards the west coast during the mid afternoon hours. These storms produced widespread lightning across the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
Easterly flow pushed seabreeze thunderstorms towards the west coast during the mid afternoon hours. These storms produced widespread lightning across the area. One lightning strike killed a woman in Sarasota.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 26, 1:03 PM EST, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 203 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 SYNOPSIS... 16z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows much of the eastern seaboard beneath a large swath of mid level ridging that is in place from the mid-atlantic states down to the southeastern states. The Florida peninsula resides on the southern periphery of this ridge...with the easterly flow aloft sampled well in the 12Z KTBW sounding. At the surface...the Florida peninsula resides between and area of high pressure along the eastern seaboard and lower pressures down across the Bahamas and NW Caribbean. This pressure gradient is also providing a synoptic easterly flow across the peninsula. Latest model guidance and KTBW VAD wind display showing 10-15knots of easterly flow just above the surface this midday...and this should be enough to prevent any defined sea-breeze formation. Similar to what happened on Thursday...will likely see the flow weaken...and veer more northerly near the coast by the later afternoon hours. While not as efficient as a true sea-breeze. This evolution still allows for some speed convergence close to and just off the coast for enhancement of rising motion. With all this in mind...the highest pops through the early evening will be closer to the coast and over the coastal waters...and also south of Tampa Bay where the overall moisture profile is more favorable. Inherited forecast had 60% likely pops along the suncoast...and 30-50% Pops heading further north. This philosophy remains valid...and have only made some slight adjustments to the best potential timing for the rainfall. The last few runs of the HRRR have very much agreed with this scenario. Of interest...we continue to monitor invest area 99l near the southeastern Bahamas this afternoon. 99l remains weak and unorganized at this time. There has been a burst of convection today...but this convection is not co-located with the center of circulation...and hence suggest the disturbance is still encountering enough shear to prevent much organization. We will continue to monitor its progress as it slowly moves toward the Florida Straits this upcoming weekend. Some strengthening can not be ruled out if the storm finds a more favorable environment during the next several days. This is simply a system that requires monitoring...but it is too early to determine the potential impacts to our region...if any. It is very important to remember that computer models are not very skilled at simulating these types of weak disorganized systems. Models do a much better job...especially with track forecasts once a defined cyclone exits. Therefore...it is very important not to focus too closely or make decisions on any one model solution...or any one model run. These solutions will change over time...as we have seen within the past several days. The National Hurricane Center and your local NWS office will be analyzing all the data, and model ensemble trends, to provide the most likely forecast scenario. SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday)... The synoptic pattern remains similar through the first half of the upcoming weekend. Upper ridge axis remains to our north...with an easterly surface flow between high pressure along the eastern seaboard and weak low pressure approaching the Florida Straits. Most early evening storms will quickly exit into the Gulf of Mexico...providing a mostly dry and seasonable overnight period. Low temperatures by dawn Saturday will range from the lower 70s north of Brooksville...to the middle 70s elsewhere. Not a whole lot of difference between the forecast for Saturday...from the forecast for today. Fairly typical summer type weather. The morning hours should feature party sunny skies...and low rain chances. Will begin to see the clouds build by early afternoon...with a scattering of showers and storms moving quickly east to west across the peninsula. The coverage of storms should increase the most along and west of the I-75 corridor to the south of Tampa Bay during the mid/late afternoon hours. Once again the low level flow will help keep any sea-breeze weak and pinned at the coast. This position suggests best storms coverage is also right at the coast and over near shore coastal waters. High temperatures Saturday generally reaching into the lower 90s. Have a great Friday afternoon and evening everyone! .Mid-Long Term (Saturday Night-Friday)... Model uncertainties and differences in the solutions making for problematic forecast with the tropical wave and disturbed wx to move into the SE Gulf to end the weekend and into next week. Latest solutions and coordination with other NWS offices/centers to slowly bring the system from the SE Gulf Monday through the E Central Gulf Tue/Wed then NE Gulf Thursday. This slow solution would produce significant increase in rain chances across much of the region as deep tropical moisture would advect and remain in place for widespread showers and storms with heavy rains and a threat of localized flooding. with cloud cover and rain temps would run below climate normals. Still significant uncertainty in timing, placement, and strength of this system, so will continue to monitor and adjust forecasts as needed. AVIATION... General VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening hours...outside a scattering of storms that will be moving east to west across the peninsula after 19Z. The most likely locations to see a brief shower or storm will be from KPGD to KFMY/KRSW. Any storms should push offshore into the Gulf after 01Z...with prevailing VFR condition and a light easterly flow for the remainder of the overnight and early morning hours of Saturday. MARINE... A ridge of high pressure remains to the north of the forecast waters through the next couple of days...providing a moderate east to northeast flow. A tropical wave will approach south Florida and the Florida straits this weekend and then likely enter the southeast Gulf of Mexico early next week. There is some potential for this tropical wave to strengthen over the next four to five days...and mariners are urged to check the latest forecasts before heading out on the water. Additional information on this tropical wave can be found in the tropical weather outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 77 92 78 92 / 30 50 10 60 FMY 77 91 77 90 / 30 60 20 70 GIF 76 91 76 91 / 20 50 10 60 SRQ 77 92 78 92 / 30 50 10 60 BKV 75 92 75 93 / 20 40 10 60 SPG 79 91 79 91 / 30 50 10 60 && .TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Mroczka MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...Davis
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 517 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165- 239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870- 873-876-261630- SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY- COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO- COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA- COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS- INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE- INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS- CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND- COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- 517 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA...AND SHIFT WESTWARD BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY. THE GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT OCCUR. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ...TROPICAL IMPACT... A TROPICAL LOW CONTINUES TO STIR NEAR CUBA THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERY UNORGANIZED...AND ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW NEARS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL STRENGTH...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE DISTURBANCE NORTHWESTWARD...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT MEANDERS INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. AUSTIN
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 41 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:49 UTC.
1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
A 50 year old homeless woman was struck and killed by lightning. She was seeking shelter under a gazebo in the park.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning, Sarasota | 2016-08-26 | 50 | Female | Outside/Open Areas | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 646102.