Hail and Damaging Wind in Nevada, August 17 to 18, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
242 AM PDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Slight chances for thunderstorms will continue in Mohave
County through the week, and also pop up in the Sierra Nevada and
nearby mountains Thursday as a weak disturbance moves through.
Expect dry conditions for most of the rest of the area, with
temperatures coming down a degree or two each day through Friday.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday night.

A trough apparent on morning water vapor imagery near central and
western Nevada will keep the area under dry southwest flow for
today, doing little to change sensible weather with afternoon
breezes expected. Any moisture and thus thunderstorm chances
will be limited to Arizona and portions of the Sierra Nevada. Smoke
from the Blue Cut fire has been ingested into Southwesterly flow,
creeping northeastward toward Vegas through the night. Expect the
possibility for brief periods of smoke at the surface as mixing
commences with sunrise, but will likely lift to more of a haze layer
by late morning with very good mixing.

The trough will wobble around the California/Nevada region,
beginning its retrograde westward by tomorrow, aided by an additional
piece of shortwave energy coming around the northern Pacific high.
An additional potent trough begins digging south into Montana by
Friday, pushing the trough even further west/offshore with slight
shortwave ridging wedging in. This will result in afternoon breezes
relaxing a bit, as well as even further reductions in thunderstorm
chances for the Sierra Nevada and northwest Arizona.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

Models that showed a trough digging southeast through Utah/western
Colorado yesterday now show that feature further east as high
pressure aloft starts nosing in across northern California/western
Nevada Saturday. Early next week, an easterly flow between high
pressure to our north and weak upper low developing to our south
progged to advect deeper monsoon moisture over Arizona westward into
eastern San Bernardino, Clark and Lincoln Counties Monday and
Tuesday. Increased POPs slightly while boosting sky grids. No
significant gradient winds forecast while temperatures will hover
near to slightly above normal.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions continue. Expect afternoon
relative humidities to drop below 10 percent with southwest gusts
around 20 to 25 mph across the Mojave Desert and southern Great
Basin with slightly more moist conditions lingering in Arizona.
Winds should relax by the end of the week...with dry conditions
continuing.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Persistence is forecast with variable to
easterly winds by mid morning giving way to breezy southwest winds
for the afternoon. Smoke has been infiltrating the area aloft
overnight, and may mix down to the surface briefly in the morning
before lifting to more of a haze by the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Another dry day with breezy southwest winds for the
afternoon. Smoke has overspread much of the area between KDAG and
KLAS, but should gradually mix to a haze layer by the afternoon.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotter activation is not
anticipated. Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
according to standard operating procedures.
&&

Short Term/Aviation/Fire...Steele
Long Term..................Pierce

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