A moist southeast surface flow resulting in 50 to 60 degree dewoints along with strong deep shear combined with a strong mid-level speed max were centered over eastern Montana. As a result, severe thunderstorms developed across Rosebud, Custer and Fallon Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BYZ wrote it up.
A moist southeast surface flow resulting in 50 to 60 degree dewoints along with strong deep shear combined with a strong mid-level speed max were centered over eastern Montana. As a result, severe thunderstorms developed across Rosebud, Custer and Fallon Counties. These thunderstorms produced very large hail, damaging wind gusts, as well as a tornado.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 11, 2:35 PM MST, 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
335 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...
Severe thunderstorms will be developing this afternoon into this
evening for areas from Yellowstone County eastward. A cold front
is located across Rosebud County southward into North Central
Wyoming. North to northwest winds have ushered in behind the
front. In addition, latest surface analysis shows a surface low
across extreme northeast Wyoming/southeast Montana. Ahead of this
low, southeast winds are gusting to around 30 mph. Dewpoints
across the area remain in the 50s with 60 degree dewpoints
advecting westward out of the Dakotas into extreme eastern
Montana. Models continue to show the best shear just to the east
and north of this surface low, and given the 60 degree dewpoints,
the best locations for a tornado will be across Carter and Fallon
Counties, as well as the western Dakotas and northeast Montana.
Elsewhere, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible as far
west as Yellowstone County. In addition, an upper level
disturbance will move across the forecast providing the forcing
necessary for storms. As a result, a severe thunderstorm watch has
been issued until 10pm along and east of a Musselshell-
Yellowstone-Big Horn- Sheridan County line. The one concern is the
current cap across our central areas, especially Yellowstone
County as cloud cover continues to be extensive. But given
sufficient low level moisture and forcing, we have included
Yellowstone County in this watch.
Sunday & Monday...Sunday is expected to be a pleasant late Spring
day as cooler and drier air advect across the forecast area. There
will continue to be a slight chance for an afternoon/evening
shower or thunderstorm especially over the mountains and adjacent
foothills as another disturbance moves north out of Wyoming.
However, no strong storms or severe thunderstorms are expected.
Afternoon highs will be in the lower 70s across the west to around
80 degrees across the east. For Monday, a more westerly flow aloft
will prevail but it will be associated with some weaker area of
vorticity combined with some forcing over Wyoming. This will bring
a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. However, at this
time, severe storms are not expected. Highs on Monday will be
around normal with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Hooley
.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...
Trof over the northern plains will move to the eastern Dakotas on
Tuesday, allowing for some shortwave ridging over our region.
This is a bit faster exit to the east than previously thought, so
have lowered pops somewhat while keeping a chance along our
eastern border. SW flow will develop across our west courtesy of
deep trof over the Pac NW. Though mid level baroclinicity will
remain to our west, cannot rule out a few showers/thunderstorms
over our western areas as weak cold front pushes from western to
central MT. Have made some minor pop adjustments to account for
these changes Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Upper low will remain along the coast through the end of the week,
resulting in a persistent SW flow aloft for our region. A series
of weak shortwaves with strongest forcing to our west will keep at
least slight chances for showers and thunderstorms for most
periods, but at this time do not see any obvious severe risks as
the progressive SW flow and blocking ridge over the northern
plains prevent any significant moisture return. Temps will remain
above normal but again the progressive flow allows for a couple
pulses of cooler Pacific fropas. Models in disagreement regarding
the timing of these weak fronts, so will keep forecast temps near
consensus values, ie mostly 80s to near 90F.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms will impact the region late this afternoon
and evening. Some storms from KBIL eastward could be severe and
produce hail and strong winds. Local MVFR or lower flight
conditions are anticipated with the stronger storms. Mountains
will be occasionally obscured. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will taper off later tonight, and VFR conditions will prevail
Sunday with weaker showers and thunderstorms mainly near the
mountains and foothills. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/075 054/079 055/084 053/083 056/085 056/087 056/086
41/B 23/T 32/T 22/T 21/B 12/T 22/T
LVM 045/072 045/075 046/080 047/078 048/081 049/082 048/082
42/T 24/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 22/T
HDN 055/078 053/079 053/085 052/087 052/087 054/089 052/088
41/B 24/T 32/T 22/T 21/U 12/T 22/T
MLS 060/076 055/081 058/084 058/088 060/087 060/089 058/086
31/B 24/T 32/W 12/T 21/U 12/T 22/T
4BQ 059/079 054/082 056/085 056/090 056/090 057/093 056/089
31/B 34/T 32/T 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
BHK 060/075 051/077 056/081 053/083 055/086 056/087 056/084
61/N 24/T 44/T 11/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
SHR 053/073 051/078 049/083 050/088 052/088 053/089 051/087
32/T 34/T 42/T 22/T 21/U 12/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246 in effect until 10 PM MDT this
evening FOR ZONES 29>33-35>38-57-58.
WY...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246 in effect until 10 PM MDT this
evening FOR ZONES 98-99.
&&
weather.gov/billingsHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 328 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016 MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-121130- SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER- FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER- SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK- NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS- NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY- LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS- CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIGHORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS- 328 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE A THREAT OF HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS...THE LARGEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE FROM ROUNDUP TO SHERIDAN EASTWARD. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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</html>The Billings radar (KBLX), 233 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:35 UTC.
8 hail, 4 thunderstorm wind, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Branches 3 to 4 inches in diameter were broken off trees.
A storm chaser estimated wind speeds of 80 mph.
Some windows were broken.
Tree limbs 3 to 4 inches in diameter were downed. In addition, golf ball to two-inch size hail was also reported.
A storm chaser reported golf ball size hail along with 50 mph winds.
Strong winds flipped over a snowmobile trailer.
The pre-storm environment for eastern Montana was such that severe weather was likely. Surface dew point values in the Baker area were in the lower 60s with strong southeasterly flow converging in the vicinity of a stationary surface trough. This area of strong surface convergence, which also separated moist rich air to the east and drier air to the west, played a critical role in the development of this short-lived tornado.
Although no fatalities occurred , seven injuries, some requiring hospitalization, resulted from the tornado. Two homes were totally destroyed and 40 to 50 more sustained excessive damage. The city blocks located between South 5th Street East and South 10th Street East intersected by Texas Avenue were hit the hardest and sustained the most damage. Many power poles were broken resulting in power lines down and power outages. Single tree trunks were described to look like match sticks as they were stripped of all branches and leaves.
Over 70 personnel came with boots on the ground from the surrounding tri-state area. The communities of Plevna, Ekalaka, and Wibaux, Montana, Marmarth, Rhame, Bowman and Beach, North Dakota, as well as Ludlow, South Dakota responded shortly after the tornado.
At the mesoscale level (2 to 2000 km in space), the interaction of pre-existing convergence zones or boundaries can serve as areas of storm development or enhancement. In some cases, pre-existing thunderstorms interacting with a boundary of converging surface winds can rapidly develop short-lived tornadoes with very little precursor indication from weather radar. The time scale of these events typically is on the order of a few minutes (0-10 minutes).
In the case of the thunderstorms near Baker on Saturday, June 11th, evidence of these types of boundaries was observed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Montana, 2016Warnings in Montana, June 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 632202, 632200, 632198, 632197, 632196, 632195, 632194, 632050, 632193, 632049, 632048, 638068, 632045.