A couple of thunderstorm complexes developed over southeast Missouri to the north of a stationary front over northeast Arkansas. A light south to southeast wind flow at 850 mb provided abundant moisture for locally torrential rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A couple of thunderstorm complexes developed over southeast Missouri to the north of a stationary front over northeast Arkansas. A light south to southeast wind flow at 850 mb provided abundant moisture for locally torrential rainfall. The storms moved very slowly beneath a mid-level ridge, where winds were only 10 to 15 knots at 500 mb.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 15, 2:00 PM CST, 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 300 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016 An unsettled weather pattern will continue in the short term. Best convective coverage this afternoon will continue over SEMO. Chances should diminish tonight. PoPs will gradually rise Friday and peak Friday night into Saturday. Wind fields are somewhat chaotic until Sunday, likely affected by convection. We should see drier air work in from the NW Sunday through Sunday night with PoPs decreasing from NW to SE. Generally followed a blend of MOS and existing numbers for temps. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016 Essentially a dry forecast with the extended forecast period. The mean trough axis moves through the WFO PAH forecast area during the day on Sunday, scouring out any deeper moisture and lift away from the area. The 12z Thursday GFS has come around to the deterministic solution of the 00z/12z Wednesday ECMWF, and to some degree the 12z Thursday ECMWF by building broad mid-upper level ridge across the WFO PAH forecast area, capping convective activity and allowing for a slow but gradual increase in temperatures and dewpoints. Fortunately, both the temperatures will be lower than what we experienced most of August, but still a little seasonally higher for the middle of September. Given the turnaround of the GFS guidance and its input to the regional blended guidance initialization...have better than 50% confidence in the PoP/Weather forecast for the extended period. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016 Generally VFR conditions with scattered convection this afternoon, and again Friday. Brief MVFR cigs, MVFR/IFR vsbys possible with stronger convection. Light east winds today will be light tonight. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 329 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-161000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 329 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM RELATED HAZARDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR PART OR ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHEN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY STORM HAZARD. GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 135 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 ILZ084-088-092-093-KYZ001>004-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114- 152030- JACKSON-UNION-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD- PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER- STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARBONDALE...MURPHYSBORO...JONESBORO... CAIRO...MOUND CITY...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE... PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...PIEDMONT... VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON... CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID 135 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 AT 135 PM...VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE OBSERVED AS WELL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY RESULT IN STANDING WATER IN SOME AREAS. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH 300 PM.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
229 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016
MOZ111-152015-
SCOTT MO-
229 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM CDT...
AT 228 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BENTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. RADAR
HAS ALSO DETECTED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. LIKE YESTERDAY
THERE COULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. 41 MPH WINDS WERE
REPORTED AT THE CAPE GIRARDEAU AIRPORT.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...SCOTT CITY...CHAFFEE...BENTON...MORLEY...KELSO...
THEBES...COMMERCE AND LAMBERT.
LAT...LON 3721 8965 3722 8963 3725 8952 3724 8951
3725 8947 3723 8946 3723 8947 3721 8947
3714 8942 3704 8940 3702 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 352DEG 15KT 3713 8955The Paducah radar (KPAH), 110 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:14 UTC.
3 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Rushing water was over Highway 51 just south of N Highway, or about 3 miles south of Marble Hill.
Several roads were covered with water, including portions of Route A and Highway 61.
A trained spotter reported 3.2 inches of rain in 45 minutes near Ellsinore. There was standing water in low-lying areas.
Street flooding occurred in Doniphan. An automated rain gage measured 2.25 inches in less than an hour.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, September 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 656899, 656900, 656901, 656902.