A large area of showers and thunderstorms occurred in a deep southerly wind flow of moist air. At the surface, high pressure was located over the Carolinas, and low pressure was centered over the southern Plains.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A large area of showers and thunderstorms occurred in a deep southerly wind flow of moist air. At the surface, high pressure was located over the Carolinas, and low pressure was centered over the southern Plains. Locally heavy rainfall, on top of ground that was saturated from the previous day's storms, resulted in flooding of some roads.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 1:08 AM CST, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 208 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016 High confidence in rain with low confidence in timing and medium confidence in placement. Models continue to show different solution with the placement and timing of the rain. However one common theme is that they do continue to show the highest chances and heaviest rain along west of the Ohio and Wabash River Valleys. This is more pronounced west of the Mississippi River as come to fruition Thursday with Cape Girardeau measuring over three and half inches. In contrast west of there Poplar Bluff was more like a tenth of an inch and Paducah was nearly three quarters of an inch. So the heavy rain threat continues but not to the extent of Thursday. There was also some hail Thursday which is not as likely today but possible. The models are starting to show more dry periods than previously unfortunately not so much for today. As we near the end of the short term drier condition are expected to become more common. The southwest flow aloft will persist through the short term with the gulf wide open in the lower layers. So any perturbation in the flow will set off thunderstorms. Although severe is not expected strong storms with heavy rain will continue to be the main threat. Southerly winds at the surface will be gusty again today with or without storms. Temperatures will continue to slowly climb a degree or two each day through the short term. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016 below average confidence in the long term due to model differences. High pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft should keep most of the region dry Monday and Monday night, however scattered mainly diurnal convection will be possible, especially over the western sections. Precipitation probabilities begin to increase area wide on Tuesday as a closed upper low digging southeast into the upper plains carves out a huge trough causing the flow aloft to increase and back around to the southwest over the area. Meanwhile the aforementioned surface high pressure will have moved off to the east bringing the low level flow around to the south causing increasing levels of moisture. The trough is forecast to push a front across the region on Thursday so precipitation chances should be greatest area wide on that day. High temperatures in the long term period will generally top out in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows bottoming out in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016 A rather persistent area of showers will continue to stream north northeast through KCGI and KPAH for at least the first few hours of the forecast. There has been some sporadic lightning within this area of showers/rain in Missouri, but the chance of a strike at KCGI is too low to mention TS at this time. Not sure just how long this activity will persist, but it could continue through the night and into Friday morning. Guidance is strongly suggesting that the late morning/early afternoon period may have some MVFR ceilings and SHRA/TSRA potential at KCGI and possibly KPAH. For KOWB and KEVV, it should remain dry through this period. Threw in some MVFR fog straddling sunrise, as they are nearly saturated with light winds at this time. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...KH LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...DRS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 312 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-281000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 312 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL OR PART OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was over two lanes of Highway 60 at the curve near the Butler County line.
Water was over side roads, as well as the entrance to the Poplar Bluff airport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 630165, 630166.