Flash Flooding and Hail in Missouri, May 25 to 26, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Short Term (Today through Friday night):

Showers and thunderstorms from this morning/early afternoon have
dissipated and the remainder of the evening is expected to remain
dry. Convection is expected to develop along a dryline out across
central Kansas late this afternoon and spread eastward tonight.
These storms will be in a weakening phase as they approach the area
however the western portion of the CWA may experience scattered
showers and thunderstorms tonight. Overnight...a shortwave moving
through the base of a trough across the northern Plains will force a
back door front towards the area and showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along this front and sink into northern
Missouri. These storms are also expected to be in a weakening phase
as they sink into the CWA. The best chance for severe weather will
occur late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. This will occur
as an upper level trough ejects out into the central High Plains.
This will provide the forcing for thunderstorms to develop along a
dryline out across western Kansas and then move east-northeastward
along a warm front which be progged to extend near the KS/NE border.
All modes of severe weather will be possible west of the area with
hail and damaging winds the main threats across the local area
tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. Storms are expected to
continue into Friday morning. The upper level trough will move into
the central Plains on Friday and weaken as it does. Consequently,
with morning storms helping to limit instability and a weakening
trough, severe potential should be minimized. Thunderstorm chances
are however expected to continue Friday into Friday night.

Extended Term: (Saturday through Wednesday):

The extended period looks to be a continuation of the unsettled
weather pattern. Saturday and Sunday the upper trough will slowly
move through the eastern Plains and into the Midwest continuing
scattered thunderstorm chances through the weekend. By the beginning
of next week the pattern reverts back to a similar one to the one at
the beginning of this week with a trough over the southwestern CONUS
and southwesterly flow aloft across the local area. Several
shortwaves ejecting out ahead of the trough over the southwestern
CONUS will continue scattered thunderstorm chances for the first
half of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

VFR conditions will start the evening, but might give way to just
barely MVFR skies as cloud cover out of south central Kansas moves
across western Missouri later this evening, which will also bring
the onset for any VCTS that might bubble up tonight. Confidence on
specific timing is low, but in general think the low level jet
tonight should generate some storms somewhere across western Missouri
late tonight. Then we could have some lower MVFR clouds stick around
through the morning hours before scattering out Thursday afternoon,
just in time for afternoon thunderstorm development. Additionally,
winds Thursday afternoon might get a little gusty as clouds clear and
boundary layer mixing works with a tightening pressure gradient.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...Cutter

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1252 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1252 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
GUSTY TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM THAT DEVELOPS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING
TO POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN IN AREAS THAT SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO