Abnormally dry weather continued during the month of December and allowed the persistence of at least moderate (D2) drought conditions over most portions of the Mid-South. A semi-permanent upper ridge of high pressure resulted in little rainfall which continued the drought conditions.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Abnormally dry weather continued during the month of December and allowed the persistence of at least moderate (D2) drought conditions over most portions of the Mid-South. A semi-permanent upper ridge of high pressure resulted in little rainfall which continued the drought conditions. Dry conditions negatively impacted pastures, triggering more feeding of hay, and causing concern for hay shortages for the winter months. The drought caused river and lake levels to be at low levels.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 10:53 PM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1053 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016 .UPDATE... /issued 857 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ A deep mid-latitude cyclone is moving very slowly to the east across the upper Midwest, with a strong jet extending from the Mid-South, northeast into the Great Lakes. Dry air on the south side of the jet max has moved into the region, providing clear skies and dry conditions across the CWA. Winds will become light overnight, which should promote fair radiational cooling conditions, with temperatures falling into the low/mid 30s by sunrise. Dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week, with afternoon highs generally in the 50s. The inherited forecast was in good shape and only minor changes were made this evening, primarily in the hourly grids. Johnson && .DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/ Zonal flow aloft will bring relatively tranquil weather to the Midsouth through the end of the work/school week. Near normal temperatures, moderate daytime humidity and little to no chance of measurable rainfall are forecast. A more unsettled pattern appears in store for the weekend, through the middle of next week. An upper level low will form over the desert southwest and drop into the central Baja region of Mexico by Saturday afternoon. Pacific midlevel moisture will combine with downstream onshore flow over Texas, supportive of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the midlevel moisture will spread eastward into the lower MS River valley by Saturday, sending extensive midlevel clouds into the Midsouth. A dry subcloud airmass will initially limit rainfall amounts, particularly north of I-40. The upper low will become negatively-tilted and eject from east Texas into the Ozark plateau on Monday night. 12Z ECMWF and GFS exhibited good agreement with respect to timing and location, but intensity differences remained. The ECMWF depicted a deep closed circulation, supportive of severe weather, the GFS depicted a more open, benign wave. The Canadian model represented a good compromise, tending a bit closer to the stronger ECMWF solution. Another strong shortwave will follow toward the middle of next week, rounding a deep 529dm 500mb low over the northern plains. As this upper low lift out, an Arctic airmass will drop southeast into the southern plains and lower MS River valley next Thursday. GFS and ECMWF show precip ending over the Midsouth before thermal profiles become favorable for wintry precip Thursday morning. This will bear watching, but at day 8 it is subject to change. PWB && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Set VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Although, some patchy fog could develop temporarily reducing VSBYS at KMKL and KTUP between 8-12Z. Light westerly winds will occur overnight. Then...westerly winds will increase to 7-10 KTS after 15z. Light and variable winds are expected after 00Z. KRM && && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 341 PM CST WED NOV 30 2016 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-012345- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 341 PM CST WED NOV 30 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. PWB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) drought conditions improved early in the month.
Severe (D2) drought conditions improved early in the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 671922, 671923.