Hail and Damaging Winds in Mississippi, June 17, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1055 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS OPPRESSIVE HEAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

Latest satellite imagery showed the severe weather potential culprit
in the form of an strong MCV which was spinning about in the
Northern Arkansas. On the surface a backdoor front was pushing
toward the region. 12z sndgs were rather potent with very steep
lapse rates. JAN 12z sounding had a surface based cape of near 2000
j/kg...while LZK had surface based cape near 4000 j/kg near the MCV.
Expect the cold pool to push into the region for this afternoon into
a very unstable airmass with the aid of afternoon heating. Hi-res
models shows severe storms breaking out in the north...which will
spread southeast across the region. Northerly flow systems are well
known for severe wind events with strong day time heating. So have
an elevated risk of severe weather with the primary issues being 70
mph winds and quarter sized hail as storms move south southeast.
This will be a fast moving system which will push across the cwa in
around 5 hours...which spells lack of heavy rainfall.

As for heating potential. Late morning temps were running about 2-4
degrees warmer than yesterday. Temps were already from the upper 80s
to the lower 90s in general. Some of the Hi-res models were going
for the lower 100's for afternoon highs. But with the convection
coming across will hold on to the current forecast for highs in the
mid to upper 90s. This should be no problem since temps are warming
up quickly before we get the cool down from strong convection.

So with this in mind have increased pops across most of the region
especially across the north. Also put in a chance of severe storms
over most of the region. Left temps alone,but will continue heat
advisory until 7 pm/17/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail for much of the TAF period.
The focus for restricted conditions will be on the timing of storms.
These should be moving SSE quickly and the duration of restrictions
should be small. However, gusty winds to 40kts or higher will be
possible. Outside of storms, VFR conditions are expected. There may
be some small window of MVFR vis conditions in the 10-13z
timeframe for locations that see more rain. /CME/

&&

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...445 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...A backdoor cold front
will slowly approach the northeast corner of the region by this
afternoon but across our region expect warm and humid conditions to
still escalate quickly to oppressive heat over all areas by midday
to early afternoon. Humidity may be a little lower than in the past
few days at many spots, but expect actual temperatures peaking in a
range from the mid to upper 90s to once again deliver maximum heat
indices in the 105 to 110 degree range in most areas. For this
reason the previous heat advisory for all areas has been kept going.

Fortunately, potential for oppressive heat should be dropping off
tomorrow and many areas may actually see some relief by late this
afternoon. Any relief today will come from cool thunderstorm outflow
and a decent coverage of thunderstorms is expected by later this
afternoon into the early evening across the northeast third of the
forecast area as convection initiated along the previously-mentioned
backdoor front just to our northeast propagates south/southwest.
There is some potential (albeit less potential) that thunderstorms
could achieve enough loose organization in the northeast third of
the CWA this afternoon to advance well through the heart of the
region by early evening. Although atmospheric wind shear will
certainly not be great the available instability owing to heat and
temp lapse rates aloft will be moderate to high and there are hints
that a pocket of drier air aloft could enhance thunderstorm
downdrafts. Considering all the factors the inherited limited risk
of severe thunderstorms through early this evening for the northeast
half of zones was actually extending slightly further south.

Composite thunderstorm outflow is expected to hurry the advance of
the backdoor cold front into the region tonight but the main area of
convergence should be in a position across southern portions of the
forecast area to trigger scattered shower and storm production on
Saturday (perhaps even quite early in the day). Even north of the
actual frontal boundary low level convergence along an inverted
trough could still catalyze more marginal instability into
convection production closer to the heart of the region. Relatively
high humidity levels will remain at least over southern zones on
Saturday, but clouds and scattered precip should preclude heat
advisory conditions being met again. Further north, even with the
precip potential much lower the lower heat and humidity will keep
conditions comfortably shy of advisory criteria.

Expect any left over convection Saturday evening in southern zones
to be getting confined mostly toward the coast by late in the night
with temperatures by dawn Saturday allowed to drop closer to normal
levels thanks to drier air gradually infiltrating in from the north.
/BB/

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...The extended portion of the
forecast will be characterized by more seasonable temperatures, with
a couple shots of slightly drier air possible.

As today/tomorrow's backdoor front settles just south of the CWA by
Sunday, somewhat drier air will nudge into the area, with the
greatest drying both in the low levels and aloft over the N/E half
of the area. The boundary itself will begin to lose character during
this time frame, but lingering baroclinicity and deep layer moisture
will result in convective development on Sunday. Though the greatest
focus for this will be south of the area, some of this activity
could certainly work its way into the southern part of the forecast
area.

Mid level heights will increase as mid level drying continues Monday
into Tuesday, resulting in a continued decrease in rain chances.
This will allow temps to begin to tick back upward through the low
90s to possibly mid 90s in a few spots. By Wednesday into Thursday
we could see a reprise of what we are seeing at the end of this
week. Another shortwave is forecast to round the eastern perimeter
of the mid/upper trough on the nose of an upper jet max extending
from the lower Appalachians back into the Canadian Prairies. This
will likely nudge another backdoor cold front into the region,
bringing increased rain chances over the middle portion of the week.
This could also result in a similar influx of drier air over much of
the area by the end of the week. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       97  73  93  73 /  38  32  23  13
Meridian      98  72  91  70 /  52  33  27  12
Vicksburg     97  73  93  73 /  31  35  21  13
Hattiesburg   97  74  92  72 /  34  34  39  22
Natchez       96  75  92  74 /  26  30  29  20
Greenville    96  71  92  73 /  42  26  11   5
Greenwood     95  70  92  70 /  58  21  11   5

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

17/CME/BB/DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1110 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

ARZ074-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ053-059>062-181615-
ASHLEY-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
1110 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES
PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON. A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE REST
OF TODAY.

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-025>052-054>058-063>066-072>074-181615-
CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1110 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO PORTIONS OF
THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL ARE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES
PEAKING BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON. A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE REST
OF TODAY.

CME

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES FOR 3 OR
 MORE DAYS IN A ROW AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 107
 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES
 AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
108 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

MSZ031-171845-
LOWNDES MS-
108 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LOWNDES COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM CDT...

AT 108 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER CALEDONIA...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS AFB...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
LOWNDES COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3354 8827 3367 8846 3367 8844 3368 8843
      3367 8842 3369 8839 3369 8837 3372 8833
      3374 8833 3374 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 304DEG 31KT 3371 8832

EEC