A spring like weather system took shape on Feb 2 and set the stage for a round of severe storms with tornadoes. A large surface low developed across the Eastern Plains and Midwest with an attendant surface front that extended southward into the ArkLaMiss region.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
A spring like weather system took shape on Feb 2 and set the stage for a round of severe storms with tornadoes. A large surface low developed across the Eastern Plains and Midwest with an attendant surface front that extended southward into the ArkLaMiss region. While the core of the best lift was over the Midwest, a combination of sufficient lift along with strong wind shear and instability coexisted across portions of East-Central Mississippi. Several supercell thunderstorms developed during the afternoon with a few producing tornadoes. One cell in particular was efficient at producing tornadoes and produced 3 before moving into Alabama where it produced a few more. This cell impacted Newton, Lauderdale, Kemper, and Noxubee Counties with tornadoes, 2 of which were strong and rated EF2.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 2, 11:36 AM CST, 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1136 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 .UPDATE...OVERALL THE THINKING REMAINS THE SAME WITH REGARD TO TODAYS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PUMPING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS HAS HELPED FUEL WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING INDICATED A SUFFICIENT CAP IN PLACE AROUND 750MB WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE IT. THIS CAP WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION. SOME MORE ROBUST STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAVE ALREADY REACHED AROUND 10-18 KFT...WHICH INDICATES THAT SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ABLE TO PENETRATE THIS CAP. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE BETTER STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO INSTABILITY AND THE AMPLE WIND ENERGY IN PLACE ONCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS OVERCOME. AS HAS BEEN INDICATED THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SO ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM ROTATING. GIVEN THIS...AND THE NATURE OF DISCRETE STORMS...SOME TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AS STORMS HAVE AMPLE TIME TO MATURE BY REACHING THAT LOCATION. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE EARLIER TO EXTEND THE SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA FURTHER SOUTH IN HWO/GRAPHICS. MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THE FORCING OF THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONGEAL INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE/QLCS BY LATE IN THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION CLOSE TO OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED. /28/ && .AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OCCURRING THIS MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE DELTA ARE STILL SEEING VFR CEILINGS. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY WED MORNING. /28/DL/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/ DISCUSSION... (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AS WELL AS STRONG GRADIENT WIND. WE ARE OFF TO A WARM AND BREEZY START THIS AM AS A BROAD REGION OF WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE AREA. YET AGAIN A DECK OF LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, THIS TIME WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE NOTED ON RADAR. AS THE CWA REMAINS IN THIS REGIME THROUGH THE DAY, CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS OF INCREASED SKY COVER, TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH NEAR RECORD READINGS POSSIBLE AT A FEW SITES. ON TO THE SEVERE THREAT...IN TERMS OF THE BIG PICTURE, OUR THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE, THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW MINOR CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION DETAILS. THE UPPER JET MAX IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL INTENSIFY TO AROUND 160 KT AS IT MOVES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. A 994 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH EAST TX. THE LOW WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE CORRIDOR OF UPPER DIVERGENCE CREATED BY THE JET STREAK, DRAGGING THE FRONT TO THE MS RIVER BY AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONLY INCREASE. EARLY IN THE DAY, A LACK OF FORCING AND A MID LEVEL TEMP INVERSION WILL INHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THOUGH GREATER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE UPPER SPEED MAX/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE, BY MIDDAY MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CREATING SOME IMPETUS FOR STORMS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON GESTATION PERIOD DURING WHICH UPDRAFTS WORK TO ERODE INHIBITION BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE VIGOROUS. THEN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. GIVEN THE SUBTLE FORCING, A MIX OF STORM MODES INCLUDING DISCRETE CELLS/QLCS SEGMENTS REMAINS POSSIBLE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED PARTICULARLY FARTHER EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET GOING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND ROTATE. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE HIGH, IT IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT...SUGGESTING THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE WIDESPREAD, BUT THOSE THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME RATHER POTENT. CAM GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED MUCH OF THE MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING FARTHER WEST BACK TO AROUND THE MS RIVER. FACTORING IN TIME NEEDED FOR STORMS TO MATURE, THIS SUGGESTS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE (INCLUDING SOME SIG SEVERE) WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. THUS, THE SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THERE REMAINS A MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA, BUT IT SEEMS LESS LIKELY GOING WEST OF THE MS RIVER. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE EVENING, EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND CONVECTION WILL SLOW OVER EAST MS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PINE BELT...TO THE POINT THAT SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WPC OUTLINED A DAY 1 SLIGHT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK FOR THIS AREA, AND WE WILL HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED FLOOD THREAT. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION TODAY, SO WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHER GUSTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS IS A BIT TOO LOW TO POST A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT, BUT A LIMITED GRADIENT WIND HAZARD WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF OVER THE PINE BELT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS THE FRONT NUDGES EASTWARD. MODERATE COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS AND GOOD INSOLATION AS NEAR FULL SUNSHINE APPEARS LIKELY. BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT, SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACK OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH THE SKY REMAINING CLEAR, FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. /DL/ THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE GENERAL POSITION OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL TEND TO ANCHOR A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FAVOR SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES SEVERAL DEG F BELOW CLIMATIC AVERAGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN IDEAL SFC HIGH POSITION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS QUICKLY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO INCONSISTENT MODEL HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT IS DEFINITELY PRUDENT TO FOLLOW THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO WIDELY VARIED QPF SIGNALS. IT LOOKED YESTERDAY LIKE A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION WAS THE WAY TO GO...AND THAT STILL MAY BE THE CASE...BUT THERE ARE MORE INDICATIONS NOW THAT WE COULD SEE THE MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM INTERACT WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING IN QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL RAINFALL THAT COULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAPPEN IN TIME TO BRING US ANY WINTRY PRECIP. LOOKING AHEAD...A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 77 49 59 33 / 76 77 10 8 MERIDIAN 76 55 63 31 / 90 100 21 10 VICKSBURG 77 46 58 32 / 76 50 5 7 HATTIESBURG 78 57 65 37 / 87 100 23 10 NATCHEZ 77 48 59 36 / 75 54 6 7 GREENVILLE 77 44 54 31 / 76 33 4 8 GREENWOOD 77 46 55 31 / 77 62 5 8 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && 28/DL/EC
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1112 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-015-023-024-026-MSZ018-031715- ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-RICHLAND-FRANKLIN LA- CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR- 1112 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...LIMITED TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS THREAT...LIMITED TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2) WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LAZ009-016-025-MSZ019-025-034-035-040>042-047-048-053-054-059>062- 031715- EAST CARROLL-MADISON LA-TENSAS-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON- HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-HINDS-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH- JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN- 1112 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT TORNADOES THREAT...ELEVATED TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...ELEVATED TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS THREAT...LIMITED TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2) WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-049>052-055>058-064>066-031715- MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON- NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE- SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES- 1112 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT TORNADOES THREAT...SIGNIFICANT TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...SIGNIFICANT TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FLOODING THREAT...LIMITED TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS THREAT...LIMITED TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2) ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4) WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MSZ026-027-036-043-031715- GRENADA-CARROLL-HOLMES-MADISON MS- 1112 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT TORNADOES THREAT...SIGNIFICANT TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...SIGNIFICANT TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS THREAT...LIMITED TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2) WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MSZ063-072>074-031715- LAWRENCE-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST- 1112 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT TORNADOES THREAT...ELEVATED TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...ELEVATED TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FLOODING THREAT...LIMITED TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS THREAT...LIMITED TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2) ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4) WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. (WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. 28 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL. SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL. ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL. LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL. *NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS* EXTREME...SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER OR WIND GUSTS 65 MPH OR GREATER. SIGNIFICANT...SUSTAINED WINDS 40-49 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 58-64 MPH. ELEVATED...SUSTAINED WINDS 30-39 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 45-57 MPH. LIMITED...SUSTAINED WINDS 20-29 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 30 TO 44 MPH. *TORNADOES* EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER. SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER. ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES. LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE. *FLOODING* EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE. ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING. LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN HOME PAGE... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK... WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER... @NWSJACKSONMS ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)... WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ SPC...MESO ANALYSIS... WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/# SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS... WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/ SPC...STORM REPORTS... WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/ NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES... WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1134 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
MSZ043-048-049-021800-
MADISON MS-HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-
1134 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN...SOUTH
CENTRAL MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CST...
AT 1134 AM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER TERRY...OR NEAR BYRAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
JACKSON...BYRAM AND FLORENCE AROUND 1145 AM CST.
MONTEREY AROUND 1150 AM CST.
RICHLAND AROUND 1155 AM CST.
PEARL AND FLOWOOD AROUND 1200 PM CST.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.
&&
LAT...LON 3208 9041 3247 9022 3234 8994 3205 9017
3205 9034
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 208DEG 30KT 3211 9028
GRGThe Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 14 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:01 UTC.
25 flash flood, 7 tornado, 5 thunderstorm wind, 3 flood, 2 hail, 2 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A large tree was blown down on Sandy Lane in a backyard. The tree fell on a deck and damaged the deck and other contents.
Trees were blown down along MS Highway 43 north of Puckett.
This tornado touched down just west of Highway 15 and tracked northeast across Highway 15 and Highway 504 damaging two homes and a mobile home. The tornado continued northeast across Shelby Road and Garvin Road, damaging the roof of a home and destroying two chicken houses. The most intense damage along the path was to the chicken houses. Numerous trees and power poles were snapped throughout its path before it dissipated near Brand Road. Maximum EF1 winds were 110 mph.
A large tree was blown down and blocked Carlisle street.
The tornado began southwest of Collinsville near Honeysuckle Drive. It caused damage to numerous homes in this subdivision, mainly to roofs. The tornado then tracked northeast through other subdivisions along Magnolia Road, again causing roof damage that ranged from minor shingle damage to roofs completely destroyed. The tornado also caused extensive damage to a mobile home along Magnolia Drive. As the tornado crossed Highway 494, it caused additional roof damage to a home as well as lifting a mobile home. As the tornado crossed a subdivision along Collinsville Circle, it caused additional roof damage with some extensive. As the tornado tracked near Highway 19, it caused extensive damage to the several buildings of Collinsville Baptist Church. It was here at the church, as well as several of the homes and the mobile home in the subdivisions southwest of Collinsville, that saw the most intense damage and where the tornado was strongest. The tornado continued northeast and snapped or uprooted numerous trees. Minor fence and roof damage occurred at West Lauderdale High School. The tornado continued on into Kemper County. Peak winds were 125 mph. Total path length was 21.4 miles with a max path width of 880 yards(half of a mile).
Quarter to half dollar sized hail fell at Bass Pro Shops.
The tornado began southwest of Collinsville near Honeysuckle Drive. It caused damage to numerous homes in this subdivision, mainly to roofs. The tornado then tracked northeast through other subdivisions along Magnolia Road, again causing roof damage that ranged from minor shingle damage to roofs completely destroyed. The tornado also caused extensive damage to a mobile home along Magnolia Drive. As the tornado crossed Highway 494, it caused additional roof damage to a home as well as lifting a mobile home. As the tornado crossed a subdivision along Collinsville Circle, it caused additional roof damage with some extensive. As the tornado tracked near Highway 19, it caused extensive damage to the several buildings of Collinsville Baptist Church. It was here at the church, as well as several of the homes and the mobile home in the subdivisions southwest of Collinsville that saw the most intense damage and where the tornado was strongest. The tornado continued northeast and snapped or uprooted numerous trees. Minor fence and roof damage occurred at West Lauderdale High School. The tornado continued northeast crossing into Kemper County, mainly snapping or uprooting softwood and hardwood trees before it dissipated past Kipling Road. Peak EF2 winds were 125 mph in Lauderdale County. Maximum winds in Kemper County were 110mph. The maximum width was 880 yards as well in Lauderdale County. Total track length was 21.4 miles.
This tornado touched down and crossed Graham Road and downed several trees. The tornado then tracked through a wooded area and crossed Highway 16 on the west side of Scooba. Here more trees were snapped or uprooted along with a few power poles that were pushed over. The tornado impacted the west side of Scooba and the western part of East Mississippi Community College. Here the baseball field fence was torn down along with some of the field buildings damaged. Two mobile buildings were heavily damaged in this area. Numerous trees were damaged along with a couple homes with minor roof damage. The tornado then crossed Highway 45 where more trees were snapped. The tornado reached its peak intensity as it approached and crossed Old Highway 45 Road. Dozens of trees were snapped or uprooted along the path and one well-built barn was totally destroyed. There was also a grove of pine trees that sustained extensive damage where roughly 85% were snapped leaving very little standing. At this location, there was evidence of multiple vortices. The tornado continued to the northeast and crossed Millington Road, heavily damaging trees. At the end of Mosley Road, a home sustained some minor roof damage. Here an exterior wood built carport was totally destroyed along with a sizeable metal shed. The tornado damaged a few other metal sheds here along with damaging more trees as it moved into a wooded area. The tornado continued moving through the wooded area in far northern Kemper County and then tracked into southeast Noxubee County. Tree damage was noted at the end of White Horse Road. The tornado dissipated in the wooded area in the Noxubee river bottom. Peak EF2 winds were around 115 mph. Total path length was 18.5 miles.
This tornado touched down and crossed Graham Road and downed several trees. The tornado then tracked through a wooded area and crossed Highway 16 on the west side of Scooba. Here more trees were snapped or uprooted along with a few power poles that were pushed over. The tornado impacted the west side of Scooba and the western part of East Mississippi Community College. Here the baseball field fence was torn down along with some of the field buildings damaged. Two mobile buildings were heavily damaged in this area. Numerous trees were damaged along with a couple homes with minor roof damage. The tornado then crossed Highway 45 where more trees were snapped. The tornado reached its peak intensity as it approached and crossed Old Highway 45 Road. Dozens of trees were snapped or uprooted along the path and one well-built barn was totally destroyed. There was also a grove of pine trees that sustained extensive damage where roughly 85% were snapped leaving very little standing. At this location, there was evidence of multiple vortices. The tornado continued to the northeast and crossed Millington Road, heavily damaging trees. At the end of Mosley Road, a home sustained some minor roof damage. Here an exterior wood built carport was totally destroyed along with a sizeable metal shed. The tornado damaged a few other metal sheds here along with damaging more trees as it moved into a wooded area. The tornado continued moving through the wooded area in far northern Kemper County and then tracked into southeast Noxubee County. Tree damage was noted at the end of White Horse Road. The tornado dissipated in the wooded area in the Noxubee river bottom. Peak EF2 winds were around 115 mph, which occurred in Kemper County. Maximum winds in Noxubee County were 75mph. Total path length was 18.5 miles. Maximum path width was 300 yards.
A road was washed out in the Fair River area.
Some local ponds overflowed. 5.14 inches of rain was measured at a location on David Sherman and Lower Rockport Road. Part of David Sherman Road was flooded.
A large pine tree was blown down along with other large limbs.
This tornado started in town and was on the weak side as a few trees were uprooted and some limbs broken. More trees were snapped as it crossed the rail road tracks and it peaked in intensity as it crossed Highway 145. Here along Highway 145, numerous trees were snapped and uprooted. A brick gas station had a large portion of the roof lifted off. The old elementary school building was damaged as roughly a 60 foot section of roof was taken off. Many windows were blown out as well. The tornado continued northeast and crossed Highway 45, snapping more trees. More trees were downed at the end of Card Cemetery Road. Some minor tree damage was noted at Elon Road where the tornado dissipated. Peak winds were 110 mph.
A road was washed out in the Songtag community.
This tornado started just south of County Road 236 where it tore the tin roof off of a home and destroyed an outbuilding. A few hardwood trees were also snapped at this location. The tornado continued northeast to County Road 240 where it uprooted a hardwood tree and also snapped a few softwood trees. The tornado ended just north of County Road 240 snapping a few more trees along the way. Peak EF1 winds was 105 mph.
There was flash flooding on County Road 410 which was about half a mile south of Highway 21 southwest of Philadelphia.
Flash flooding occurred at Highway 16 East near Highway 482. Water was almost over Highway 16.
Flash flooding occurred on Gum Street.
Multiple roads were flooded in Lincoln County.
Flooding occurred at Livingston Road and Mayes Street in Jackson.
Trees were blown down on Pinola-Braxton Road.
Street flooding occurred throughout the community.
Flooding occurred on Harrison Road near Highway 21.
Flash flooding occurred on Meadowlane Drive in Brandon. Water had covered roads and yards.
Flash flooding occurred on Gum Springs Road and Charlie Newsome Road.
Flash flooding occurred on Martin Luther King Drive and Hopson Avenue. Water surrounded mobile homes and some cars were partially submerged. Some water rescues occurred.
Flooding occurred along Meadville Gloster Road.
A vehicle was stranded along Marquette Road due to flash flooding.
Flash flooding occurred on Bluecutt Road and along Highway 50.
Flash flooding occurred on Flowood Drive, just north of Lakeland Drive. Some portions of the road were blocked off.
A tree was blown down on Highway 37 near Hopewell Road.
Flooding occurred in the Sunchase Subdivision. Water came within one foot of a home on Lincolns Drive.
Flash flooding occurred at Highway 481 North and Airport Road.
A tree fell into a roof of a house on George Boutwell Road.
Flooding occurred along Dowdle Road.
Flooding occurred on Williams Road. Water was in a home on 612 Williams Road. Four to five homes were evacuated.
Flash flooding occurred on Lewis Street near Steens Creek Drive in Florence.
Numerous roads were covered in water throughout the area.
Water covered several areas of a campground along the Homochitto River near Eddiceton. Some water rescues took place.
Seventeen roads were flooded across Lowndes County.
US Highway 80 was closed due to flooding near Mississippi Highway 43.
Highway 149 between Sawmill Road and Charlie Newsome Road was closed as a result of flash flooding near Dabbs Creek.
MS Road 556 between US Highway 84 and US Highway 98 was flooded and closed in both directions.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Mississippi, 2016Warnings in Mississippi, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 615093, 615094, 615095, 615096, 615097, 615098, 615100, 615099, 615101, 615102, 615104, 615103, 615168, 615105, 615107, 615110, 615112, 615113, 615114, 615214, 615117, 615119, 615120, 615121, 615122, 615172, 615173, 615174, 615175, 615176, 615177, 615178, 615205, 615207, 615208, 615209, 615210, 615211, 615212, 615213, and more.