Excessive Heat in Mississippi, August 4, 2016

Name: Excessive Heat in Mississippi, August 4, 2016
Start: 2016-08-04T11:00
End: 2016-08-04T17:00
Location: Mississippi

August 4, 2016 · NWS MEG · 7 events in 7 counties and zones

High heat and humidity contributed to heat indices of 110 degrees or better across a large portion of the Midsouth from the late morning through the early evening hours of August 4th.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 7

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.

High heat and humidity contributed to heat indices of 110 degrees or better across a large portion of the Midsouth from the late morning through the early evening hours of August 4th.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 4, 10:21 AM CST, 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 4, 10:21 AM CST, 39 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1121 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...Water Vapor Satellite trends this morning place an
open wave shortwave trough over portions of western
Kentucky and Tennessee this morning. Showers and thunderstorms
developed overnight in response to this mid level synoptic
feature. This activity has been decreasing in coverage over the
past couple of hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are still
possible this afternoon into early evening.

Meanwhile, some moisture pooling has been occurring across areas
along and west of the Mississippi River this morning with surface
dewpoints averaging in the middle to upper 70s. These high
dewpoints combined with very hot temperatures into the upper 90s
have necessitated an upgrade of the Heat Advisory into an
Excessive Heat Warning across portions of East Arkansas,
Northwest Mississippi, and Southwest Tennessee until early this
evening as heat index values are anticipated to reach or exceed
110 degrees. Will update forecast to adjust convective chances
accordingly and any other elements as needed. Otherwise, forecast
overall in good shape at this time. Heat headlines will continued
to be monitored for the next few hours for any additional
adjustments if needed.

Updated grids will be available shortly.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated the Aviation Discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Skies are mostly clear across much of the forecast area early this
morning in the 70s to around 80 degrees. Some light showers and
isolated thunderstorms are moving across portions of west
Tennessee at this time and this activity is weakening as it moves
southeast.

A weak upper level disturbance will move across central Kentucky
today which may trigger a few thunderstorms over eastern sections
of the forecast area. Temperatures will be on the hot side again
today with highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will
once again exceed 105 degrees over most of the forecast area and a
Heat Advisory remains in effect. There appears to be little in
the way of triggers for thunderstorm development tonight so most
areas should remain dry with some isolated thunderstorms possible
over sections of northeast Mississippi. Temperatures will remain
quite warm with lows in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

Friday should be another typical hot summer day with isolated
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be even a little warmer with
highs in the mid to upper 90s. A weak cold front will start to
approach the region from the north which may trigger a few
thunderstorms over northern sections of the forecast area.

The cold front will get closer to the region on Saturday. More
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front and this
activity should reach parts of the forecast area. Temperatures
will not be quite as hot as Friday with highs in the low to mid
90s. The front will start to fall apart Saturday night with some
thunderstorms still possible for Saturday night and Sunday.

The extended portion of the forecast from Sunday night through
Wednesday looks to remain rather hot with an isolated thunderstorm
possible at times.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

For 12Z TAFs

VFR conditions should be predominate over the next 24 hours. Have
VCTS in for Jackson, Tennessee, and Tupelo, Mississippi for this
afternoon. It is possible that the other two sites may have a
showers/thunderstorms around, yet think it is not likely. Winds
generally light.  TLSJr

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Clay-Craighead-Greene-
     Lawrence-Mississippi-Poinsett-Randolph.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Phillips-St. Francis.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Friday for
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Phillips-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-Monroe-
     Pontotoc-Prentiss-Tippah-Tishomingo-Union-Yalobusha.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-
     DeSoto-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Friday for
     Coahoma-DeSoto-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Chester-Crockett-Dyer-
     Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Haywood-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Tipton.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Shelby.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Friday for
     Shelby.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 4, 10:46 AM CST, 14 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-051100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1146 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 TO 110 POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH AND HEAT INDEX VALUES 110 DEGREES OR HIGHER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment