An area of low pressure developed near Colorado and moved to the Upper Midwest Thursday and Friday, November 18th and 19th, bringing northeast Minnesota's first winter storm of the season after record warmth in November. Heavy snow, ranging from 8 to 25 inches, fell across northern Minnesota in a wide area from The Brainerd Lakes area through Grand Rapids, Nett Lake to Crane Lake and Ely and the…
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The episode as NWS DLH wrote it up.
An area of low pressure developed near Colorado and moved to the Upper Midwest Thursday and Friday, November 18th and 19th, bringing northeast Minnesota's first winter storm of the season after record warmth in November. Heavy snow, ranging from 8 to 25 inches, fell across northern Minnesota in a wide area from The Brainerd Lakes area through Grand Rapids, Nett Lake to Crane Lake and Ely and the Arrowhead. The snow began as rain and sleet but quickly changed over to snow in the evening of the 17th and overnight. There were intense snowfall rates of 1 to 3 per hour during the day. Two inches of snow fell in 30 minutes near Grand Rapids and 4 inches fell in 90 minutes between 11:00 am and 12:30 pm at Coleraine. The heavy snowfall rates brought very low visibility at times. Strong winds gusting over 40 mph created blizzard conditions, especially across Crow Wing County and portions of southern Cass County. The winds were the strongest at the head of Lake Superior where winds were gusting over 50 mph. The AWOS at the Sky Harbor Airport on Duluth's Park Point measured a gust of 55 mph around 11 am Friday. These strong east winds caused huge waves on Lake Superior where a Gale Warning was in effect. Waves were as high as 7 feet in the Duluth harbor's ship canal. The combination of heavy snow and strong winds brought down trees and power lines, which caused many power outages. The snow was accompanied by thunder and lightning at times.
Some snowfall reports include 25 5 miles east of Leader, 24.8 near Orr, 19 4 miles south of Tower, 18 in Nisswa, 16 8 miles north-northwest of Coleraine, 14.2 at Kabetogama, 11 at Brainerd, 11 11 miles north-northwest of Whyte, 9 in Hoyt Lakes, 8.1 near Wright, 8 3 miles west of Iron Junction, Gunflint Lake with 7.2 , and 6 in Floodwood. Locations along and near Lake Superior received had much less snow, with reports of about 5.3 in Lutsen, 4.8 5 miles northwest of Two Harbors, 3 to 3.5 in Duluth, 4 in Finland, 2.5 in Beaver Bay, and 3.3 in Silver Bay.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 17, 6:13 PM CST, 3 hours 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
613 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2016
Updated aviation discussion below for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2016
The first winter storm of the season is still on track. An area of
low pressure is expected to develop and move through Kansas this
evening and advance northeastward through the Northland Friday and
Friday night. The latest forecast models are indicating the track
of the low pressure has shifted slightly further southeast, which
indicates higher confidence in snowfall across northern MN and
northwestern WI.
Rain is forecast to develop this evening, gradually changing to snow
overnight. Precipitation will intensify across portions of central
and northeast MN as the system moves across southeast MN and into
northwest WI Friday and Friday evening. Rain will eventually change
over to snow Friday morning for north-central MN as colder air
eventually moves in from the northwest. Visibilities will rapidly
diminish to 1/2 to 1/4 mile and roads will become snow covered and
slippery. Strong north winds, with gusts as high as 35 to 40 MPH,
are possible Friday and Friday night as the surface pressure
gradient tightens. This will result in blowing and drifting snow in
open areas. Lower elevation areas near Lake Superior will see less
snow accumulation than higher elevation areas farther inland. Some
lake effect is expected over the Lake Superior snow belt in northern
Wisconsin Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Storm total
snowfall amounts may range from 6 to 14 inches across northern MN,
with amounts up to 18 inches possible across northern St. Louis
county.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2016
Snowfall will continue winding down across NW WI on Saturday as the
low moves into Quebec. Synoptically, the trough axis will swing from
the Ohio River Valley into the Eastern Great Lakes, while a ridge
builds in across the Northern Plains. Cold northerly air will advect
across Lake Superior, which will generate lake effect snow showers
along the South Shore of Lake Superior into Sunday morning. Nudged
precipitation chances towards the ECMWF, which seems to have the
best handle on situation compared to other pieces of guidance.
Expect lake effect snowfall to come to an end by late Sunday morning
as drier air moves in. The rest of the Northland will see decreasing
cloud cover on Saturday. It will be much cooler with highs ranging
from the mid 20's to the low 30's. Low temperatures heading into
Sunday will be in the single digits above zero and teens.
Dry and quiet weather conditions are expected on Monday with the
ridge building over the region. The ridge will slide to the east on
Tuesday, and behind it a trough will swing in from the Central
Plains. There are significant differences between the ECMWF/GFS at
this point with the ECMWF bringing a stronger wave into the region.
The ECWMF still shows another potential snowfall event from Tuesday
into Wednesday, but the GFS still keeps the bulk of the
precipitation south of the CWA. Have opted to keep chances of
precipitation, but think it is still too early to latch onto the
ECMWF solution. Towards the end of the week high pressure will slide
in behind the departing system, which will bring dry conditions for
the end of the week if current guidance holds true. High
temperatures will remain near normal for this time of year, but will
be cooler in comparison to the past few weeks.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CST Thu Nov 17 2016
A major winter storm is still on track to affect most of the
Northland and all TAF sites beginning later tonight, with impacts
lasting until after the end of this 24 hour TAF window. Conditions
will continue to deteriorate the first 12 hours of this TAF cycle
with ceilings/visibilities continuing to lower into the IFR
category as precipitation develops and expands. A change over to
heavy snow is expected at KHIB/KBRD between 06-12z, and a few
hours later at KDLH. KHYR will be in the warm sector until very
late in this TAF period with rain/fog, and a short period of
thunder will be possible on Friday. For KDLH/KHIB/KBRD, there is
likely to be a 4-6 hour period of very heavy snow/LIFR conditions
sometime between 11-19z Friday. Winds will also be strong and
gusty, from the northeast tonight slowly veering to the north and
northwest by the end of the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 35 23 29 / 90 100 60 10
INL 30 32 20 28 / 40 80 30 0
BRD 32 32 23 28 / 100 100 40 0
HYR 40 41 25 30 / 70 100 70 10
ASX 40 40 27 31 / 90 100 70 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday
for WIZ001>003.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday
night for WIZ004.
MN...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to midnight CST Friday
night for MNZ033-034-036.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to midnight CST
Friday night for MNZ010-018-025-026-035.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday for
MNZ020-021-037.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday
for MNZ038.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Saturday
for MNZ011-012-019.
LS...Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday for
LSZ121-140>148.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 334 PM CST THU NOV 17 2016 MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-181130- KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE- NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE- SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS- CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS- PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE- 334 PM CST THU NOV 17 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE AFFECTS OF THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL BEGIN TONIGHT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY NORTH OF MN HIGHWAY 210 IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF KOOCHICHING... ITASCA...NORTHERN CASS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF EAST- CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND BLOWING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE HEAVIEST PERIODS OF SNOWFALL...AND THERE COULD BE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS. PLEASE REFER THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE AND THE LATEST FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SNOWBELT AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS MID-WEEK SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SNOW SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT THEIR SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. LSZ121-140>148-181130- BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN- GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN- TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN- SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN- DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI- SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI- 334 PM CST THU NOV 17 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR STARTING TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE AREA STARTING TONIGHT AT 9 PM CST. FOR DETAILED INFORMATION PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY OUR OFFICE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO EARLY SATURDAY IN SPOTS. THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS CONCERNING WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS. MELDE MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
12 heavy snow, 2 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
The south and eastern parts of the county received 8 to 17 inches of snow.
Snowfall reports included a 24.8 from a COOP Observer 3 miles east of Orr, 16.7 from a COOP Observer 2 miles south-southwest of Kabetogama, and 14.4 from a CoCoRaHs report in Winton.
Much of northern Cass County received 12 to 18 inches of snow, and possibly even more in the far north.
Snowfall reports included a public report of 18.0 in Nisswa, 13.8 from a COOP Observer 2 miles east-northeast East Gull Lake and 11.1 from a COOP Observer 1 mile southwest of Brainerd.
Snowfall reports include 11.0 from a COOP Observer 11 miles north-northwest of Whyte and 7.2 from a COOP Observer 4 miles northeast of Sea Gull Lake.
There was a snowfall report of 19.0 from a COOP Observer 4 miles south of Tower.
Snowfall reports included 25.0 from a trained spotter 5 miles east of Leader and 16.3 from a CoCoRaHS report 4 miles east-southeast of Casino, and 16.0 from a public report in Lake Shore.
There was a CoCoRaHS report of 8.9 of snowfall 7.3 miles north of McGregor.
There were no snowfall reports from the southern zone of Aitkin County, but there was a CoCoRaHS report of 8.9 7.3 miles north of McGregor, only about 6 to 7 miles north into the northern zone of Aitkin County. There is great confidence, then, that portions of the northern portions of the southern zone of Aitkin County had heavy snowfall.
There were no reports of snowfall from sparsely populated parts of northern Itasca County, but there was a report of 16.0 8 miles north-northwest of Coleraine, only about 4 miles south of the northern zone of Itasca County. There is great confidence portions of the northern zone of Itasca County, then, got heavy snowfall.
Snowfall reports included 17.5 from CoCoRaHS 7 miles south-southwest of Grand Rapids and 16.0 from a COOP Observer 8 miles north-northwest of Coleraine.
There was a COOP Observer report of 8.1 of snowfall 3 miles east-northeast of Wright.
The combination of snow and strong north to north-northwest winds resulted in several hours of very low visibility across portions of southern Cass County. The Pine River AWOS and the Staples AWOS (just outside the southwest corner of the county) measured periods of wind gusts to nearly 40 mph and visibility near or below one-quarter of a mile. The winds and snow brought down some trees in the area, including several 8 diameter Norway Pine trees in Lake Shore.
The combination of snow and strong north to north-northwest winds resulted in several hours of very low visibility across portions of Crow Wing County. The Brainerd ASOS and Emily AWOS measured periods of wind gusts over 40 mph and visibility near or below one-quarter of a mile.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 661667, 661668, 661674, 661677, 661669, 661672, 661676, 661679, 661681, 661671, 661678, 661682, 661780, 661781.