Heavy Snow in Minnesota, March 16 to 17, 2016

Name: Heavy Snow in Minnesota, March 16 to 17, 2016
Start: 2016-03-16T03:00
End: 2016-03-17T06:15
Location: Minnesota

March 16 to 17, 2016 · NWS DLH · 8 events in 8 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 8

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS DLH wrote it up.

Heavy rain and heavy snow caused flooding, closed schools and caused power outages. The snow began as rain late on the 16th and quickly switched over to snow in most of northeast Minnesota, but remained as rain for most of the day near Lake Superior in Duluth. The heavy, wet snow caused extremely slippery roads and brought down trees, limbs and power lines. Many schools were cancelled on the 17th. The highest snow amounts were in the Minnesota Arrowhead and the Border Region where amounts ranged from 6 inches to over a foot. The areas that had over a foot of snow were in the Arrowhead just inland from Lake Superior. Some specific amounts include 13 inches at the Lutsen Mountains, 12 inches at Tofte and Taconite Harbor. The Duluth National Weather Service office had 9.2 inches and Internaitnal Falls had 7.2 inches of snow.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 11:29 PM CST, 3 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 15, 11:29 PM CST, 3 hours 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. AM
CONCERNED THAT TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING ONLY VERY SLOWLY AT THE
SURFACE...AND THAT THE 00Z SOUNDING IS AS WARM AS 4C...A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THEN THE 12Z AND 18Z MODELS HAD DEPICTED EARLIER
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST TRENDS. HOWEVER...WHILE AM
BEGINNNING TO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT OUR SWITCH OVER TO SNOW MAY
BE A LITTLE DELAYED. IN FACT...CAN NO LONGER SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE
WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST GLERL ANALYSIS...THE SURFACE OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS UP
IN THE 35-37 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH IS GOING TO BE LESS SUPPORTIVE
OF THAT FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS WELL. THUS...HAVE REMOVED THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...BUT NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...MAJOR WINTER STORM APPEARS ON TRACK TO AFFECT MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

INTENSE AND STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS EXCEPTIONALLY IMPRESSIVE IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. CENTER OF PV ANOMALY COMING ACROSS KANSAS
HAS THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE ALMOST DOWN TO 650 MB. THIS IS DRIVING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN NE MO AT THE MOMENT..AND THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO NE WISCONSIN BY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS IOWA/SRN
MN..AND RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND TSTORMS HAS BEEN NOTED ON
THE KDMX/KMPX RADARS IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.

IN RESPONSE TO ALL OF THIS DYNAMIC FORCING..THE ONGOING RAIN BAND
FROM NE MN INTO NW WI IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PIVOT AND FILL BACK IN
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH TIME TONIGHT AS BOTH LARGE SCALE
AND MESOSCALE FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE. KDLH/KMPX RADARS ARE
ALREADY SHOWING HINTS OF THIS. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
MEAN A CHANCE OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND WED.

VERY HEAVY PRECIP RATES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIABATIC COOLING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS..AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A RAPID CHANGE
OVER FROM MDT/HVY RAIN TO HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 1 AM AND 10 AM WED MORNING. CHANGEOVER TIME IN THE TWIN
PORTS APPEARS TO BE JUST BEFORE THE WED MORNING COMMUTE TIME.

ONCE THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS..HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO WED
EVENING..WITH SLOWLY DECREASING RATES THEREAFTER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REACH WARNING THRESHOLDS OVER MOST OF THE CWA..WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. 10-15 INCHES APPEAR POSSIBLE
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF TH LK SUPERIOR SHORES. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE NOW EXPECT HEAVY SNOW CONSIDERABLY FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST THAN THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAD PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED BASED ON CONSENSUS OF THE HI RES MODEL RUNS TODAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW FALL RATES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CHANGEOVER TIME
(WHENEVER THAT OCCURS AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) UNTIL SOMETIME
LATER WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT. HEAVY WET SNOW WILL
CLING TO TREES AND POWER LINES..AND MAY CAUSE SOME TREE DAMAGE
AND/OR POWER OUTAGES. THIS MAY BE EXACERBATED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION..SOME FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE TERRAIN RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT. FINALLY
STORM TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 2.5 TO 3.2 INCH
RANGE IN MANY AREAS..WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HYDRO
PROBLEMS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS WHERE FROST HAS NOT YET
COME OUT OF THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE ARE THE GRADUAL ENDING OF THE
WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...AND SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION RATES IS EXPECTED.

A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK COOL FRONT THEN ADVANCES ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LOW-END CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE.

QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
NORTHLAND ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
WEEKS...BUT GENERALLY TRENDS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE THE BAND OF RAIN CONDITIONS ARE VFR. COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD TURN THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE 15Z WEDNESDAY...CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO ALSO
DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR...IF THEY ARE NOT ALREADY THAT LOW. SNOW
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  33  28  33 / 100 100  80  70
INL  33  35  23  35 / 100 100  60  30
BRD  36  37  29  37 /  60  80  60  60
HYR  36  37  29  35 / 100 100  80  70
ASX  35  37  29  33 / 100 100  80  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ002>004-006>008.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ009.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ012-020-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-019-026-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MNZ025-033-034.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ035-036-038.

LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...LE
AVIATION...LE

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 15, 3:19 PM CST, 11 hours 41 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
419 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-162130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
419 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE CHANGEOVER
IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE RECENT
WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE QUICKLY
BEFORE AND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE
NORTHLAND. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGES FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE-HALF MILE ARE EXPECTED...AND POSSIBLY
LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
16 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND
MEASUREMENTS OF SNOW AND RAIN ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. SPOTTERS AND THE PUBLIC CAN ALSO REPORT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE FREE M-PING SMARTPHONE APP.

HUYCK

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

8 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Snow, Southern Cook

When: March 16, 3:00 AM CST to March 17, 6:15 AM CST
Where: Southern Cook forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 47.817, -90.541 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy Snow, Northern Cook / Northern Lake

When: March 16, 4:00 AM CST to March 17, 6:15 AM CST
Where: Northern Cook / Northern Lake forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 47.670, -90.975 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy Snow, Northern St. Louis

When: March 16, 5:00 AM CST to March 17, 3:15 AM CST
Where: Northern St. Louis forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 47.590, -92.461 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy Snow, Northern Itasca

When: March 16, 5:00 AM CST to March 17, 3:15 AM CST
Where: Northern Itasca forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 47.510, -93.632 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy Snow, Central St. Louis

When: March 16, 5:00 AM CST to March 17, 6:15 AM CST
Where: Central St. Louis forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 47.590, -92.461 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy Snow, Southern Lake

When: March 16, 5:00 AM CST to March 17, 6:15 AM CST
Where: Southern Lake forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 47.557, -91.935 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy Snow, Southern Itasca

When: March 16, 5:00 AM CST to March 17, 3:15 AM CST
Where: Southern Itasca forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 47.510, -93.632 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy Snow, Koochiching

When: March 16, 6:00 AM CST to March 17, 3:15 AM CST
Where: Koochiching forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 48.245, -93.783 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Heavy Snow: Snowfall reaching the local warning threshold without the other hazards of a winter storm.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Minnesota in 2016 Every state in 2016 This day in weather history Warnings in Minnesota, March 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 626372, 626367, 626366, 626368, 626369, 626370, 626380, 626358.