Hail in Minnesota, June 15, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1109 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016

Low pressure rotating through eastern South Dakota this afternoon
sparking thunderstorms across southwest Minnesota and northwest
Iowa. The environment has allowed for a few aggressive updrafts but
overall the instability and shear are marginal, especially given
that the storms developed around noon. So, suspect that the storms
will race quickly east, possibly exiting northwest Iowa by 7 pm. One
area to watch will be parts of southwest Minnesota and northwest
Iowa this afternoon and early this evening closer to the dry
surge aloft. Enhanced shear in this area could allow a few storms
to develop with a threat for localized severe weather and
tornadoes.

The remainder of the night, after about 3z, should be quiet and lead
into a very nice Wednesday. West and northwest winds will help keep
the humidity lower tonight into tomorrow which will allow for lows
tonight mainly 60 to 65 and highs on Wednesday from 80 near Marshall
to near 90 close to Sioux City.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016

The upper low will pull east soon enough to allow for convection to
be gone before daybreak Wednesday. Quickly following surface ridging
and the start of strong upper ridging will bring dry weather
Wednesday and Thursday, with daytime temperatures warming through
the 80s, and into the lower 90s along the Missouri River. Dew points
and humidity will be fairly tame.

Friday through Monday will bring the strong surface ridging to start
with, then the ridge being very slowly flattened by westerly waves.
It looks warm, and the question is how warm. It currently looks safe
that we will not make it to the heat advisory levels we saw in the
just ended hot stretch. Temperatures should get well into the 80s
and lower 90s, and dew points into the 60s. A slightly drier flow
from the low level ridge to the east may keep our southwest MN and
northwest IA areas a little drier.

The slow flattening of the ridge by repeated short waves will bring
periodic chances of storms, but at this time do not expect any of
them to be widespread. These threats will be hard to time and
probably follow our climatological trend for better chances at night
at this time of the year. The upper ridge should be driven far
enough to the south to allow for some cooling over the northern
plains at the end of the period, by next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2016

VFR is projected for the rest of tonight and Wednesday. The only
things to watch for is currently there is MVFR stratus to the
north of our area. All indications are that the stratus will
remain north of KHON. Secondly, fog could develop in northwest IA
due to wet ground, light winds and a small dew point depression.
If the fog gets thick enough low ceilings could develop late
tonight in those locations, however it is projected to remain east
of KSUX and KFSD.

&&

.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
648 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-160000-
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-
NOBLES-JACKSON-PIPESTONE-ROCK-DIXON-DAKOTA-BEADLE-KINGSBURY-
BROOKINGS-GREGORY-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-LAKE-MOODY-BRULE-AURORA-
DAVISON-HANSON-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-
TURNER-LINCOLN SD-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
648 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WARMING COULD BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE MIDSUMMER
NORMALS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT AS DURING THE PERIOD RECENTLY
ENDED...BUT THE HEAT INDEX COULD STILL REACH THE 90S IN PART OF
THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.