Strong thunderstorms moved off the coast of northeast lower Michigan.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Strong thunderstorms moved off the coast of northeast lower Michigan.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 19, 12:23 PM EST, 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 123 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2016 Decaying convective complex working across Lake Michigan late this morning, and this trend should continue as it leaves the better forcing and pushes into Northern Michigan. Still expect to see scattered showers/storms into western half of the area (especially I-75 westward) through midday before this activity dissipates. Tougher question becomes how much additional shower/storm activity will develop this afternoon. Sunshine over parts of Eastern Upper and Northeast Lower this morning, and this is the area where instability will be maximized (1200-1500 j/kg). Will focus on this area for afternoon development of additional showers/storms. Severe storms do not appear likely given the anemic wind fields, but PWAT values of 1.75 inches point toward locally heavy rainfall potential. High temperatures generally in the lower to mid 80s, although slightly cooler around precipitation areas. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2016 ...Unsettled weather for the next few days then turning cooler... High impact weather potential: Periodic thunderstorms and heavy rainfall through Saturday. Marginal risk for severe storms Saturday. Overview: Deepening/closed mid level trough and surface low analyzed over the Hudson Bay region with a slow moving cold front stretched down through the upper midwest to secondary low pressure in western Iowa. Abundant low level moisture/instability across the plains and midwest is fueling several rounds of showers/storms from Nebraska into Minnesota, and down through southern Wisconsin into the lower lakes. Weaker instability axis extends into upper Michigan where a thin line of fairly benign showers/storms has been working eastward through the night, driven by smaller pocket of QG-forcing moving through that area. Quieter weather down through lower Michigan for the moment. Today: Tough forecast from a precip/pop/timing standpoint. Right off the bat will of course have to address narrow line of showers/storms that will move through eastern upper Michigan and the tip of the mitt counties this morning. High resolution guidance suggests this line will weaken over the next several hours. Will see, but plan to have a period of categorical/likely pops across that far northern part of the CWA this morning. Given slow moving line, some locally heavy rainfall is possible. Meanwhile, surface cold front will lean into eastern upper Michigan down through Wisconsin as we go through the day, edging deeper moisture/instability axis into the region. Better instability forecast to remain down through the midwest/lower lakes region while better convergence/focus for more widespread showers/storms remains closer to the front across upper Michigan and down through Wisconsin. However, with daytime heating, we should be able to muster upward of 1500 J/KG MLCAPE by this afternoon with the best low level convergence once again across NE lower. So I think the best chances for showers/storms through the day will be across eastern upper (closer to the front) and NE lower Michigan. Severe weather potential is low although with PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches and slow moving convection, locally heavy rainfall remains a good bet. Tonight: Strong short wave energy digging into Montana this morning expected to drop into the northern plains by Saturday morning, beginning the process of developing a strong surface low over Iowa that will further deepen and swing up through the western Great Lakes this weekend (dare I say hints of a fall like system). Up this way, surface front stalls across upper Michigan in response to deepening wave in the midwest. Not much forcing for us through most of the night and in fact we develop a bit of subtle upper level ridging in response to the deepening trough upstream. So plan on diminishing pops through the evening hours and overnight as we await arrival of strong wave on Saturday, but will keep at least slight chance/chance pops going given our warm and soupy airmass. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2016 (8/20)Saturday...The rain is well underway as the sfc low moves up into the Upper Great Lakes region. The GFS and ECMWF have pretty close tracks with the rain covering the forecast area. The one thing to note in difference from last night's forecast is that the track is a little more north and west. This allows the warm sector to get into N Lower, just before the cold front moves through late in the day. A 500 mb jet streak with winds of 45 to 50 knots will move through while the cold front passes through. So will expect that not only do we have good instability (MLCAPE ~1000J/kg) but decent environmental shear (0-6km 43kts). After 00z, the sfc low is out of the forecast area and the cold front is through as well with the cold air beginning to push into the region. (8/21)Sunday...We run into some issues with the rain on Sunday as mid level dry air begins to push into the region as the 500 mb trough rotates out of the Upper Great Lakes and into Lower Great Lakes and New England. Water temperatures over N Lake Michigan are around 22C with the 850 mb temperatures falling to +6C. With the lower level (850 mb) moisture still around 70%, there is a chance for some lake effect rain. have some slight chance pops over the region from the instability that is set up. However, we lose the instability overnight as the as the sfc ridge begins to build into the region and the 500 mb heights rise. Extended (Monday through Thursday)...As the 500 mb trough moves out the flow looks to flatten out a bit. A sfc trough/warm front begins to form up in the Upper Great Lakes. The GFS shows rain, while the ECMWF is pushing the rain north. The pattern begins to amplify a bit as the 500 mb ridge builds up again on Tuesday. This ridge will keep the Upper Great Lakes will stay dry through Wednesday. the models then diverge a bit with the GFS speeding up the rain and pushing it through by Thursday, while the ECMWf is mush slower with the rain not getting out of the region until Friday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri Aug 19 2016 Scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon into the early evening hours, with the best chances occurring at APN. Cigs generally VFR except MVFR around showers/storms. Tonight, reduced vsbys with mist/fog expected once again later in the evening and overnight. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain low through the night with better chances coming on Saturday. Widespread rain expected Saturday afternoon with conditions deteriorating to widespread MVFR with areas of IFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2016 Lighter winds/waves will persist on the lakes through today and tonight. But a deepening (nearly fall like) storm system is expected to swing up through the western Great Lakes later Saturday through Sunday. SW winds will ramp up ahead of the low later Saturday/Saturday night and Sunday morning, shifting to the NW later Sunday and Sunday night. Gale force wind gusts will be a concern later Saturday through Sunday. && .APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && UPDATE...Keysor SHORT TERM...Adam LONG TERM...JSL AVIATION...Keysor MARINE...Adam
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 907 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041- 042-201315- STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING BOIS BLANC ISLAND- PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI- GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE- NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI- POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI- MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI- WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI- ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 907 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKES LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. REPORTS MAY BE MADE ONE OF THREE WAYS: ONLINE: WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGAYLORD TWITTER: TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD && WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD JK
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 110 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:56 UTC.
1 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 658549.