Isolated thunderstorms formed in the warm sector of a weak low pressure center over central Illinois. A few of these storms became severe during the warmest hours of the day, prior to nocturnal cooling.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms formed in the warm sector of a weak low pressure center over central Illinois. A few of these storms became severe during the warmest hours of the day, prior to nocturnal cooling. A few damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail events occurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 1, 12:19 PM CST, 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 119 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016 Convection firing about where expected just before 18z. SPC considering SVR watches for our area. Should be mainly hail or locally damaging wind threat. Decent mid level speed shear exists, but low level shear only marginal. Surface based instability and mid level lapse rates decent. Followed the NAM.Nest for the most part for convective trends through early evening. Overnight, will diminish PoPs over our eastern most areas, dry late tonight. Continue with our chance of showers Monday, best chance southern sections, just a slight chance north given there are still model discrepancies with respect to overall quality moisture. Just slight chance PoPs mainly east 2/3 of the area Monday night through Tuesday. Then the main mid level trof axis should pass SE of the area. Thus will maintain dry Tuesday night. Used a MOS blend with existing numbers for consistency. Overall forecast beyond tonight was an even blend of model output. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016 The the axis of the upper closed low/trough sliding down the western limb of the larger Hudson Bay Low is forecast to be just south of the WFO PAH forecast area by 12z (7am CDT) Wednesday. However, a more intense low/trough extending directly from the Hudson Bay low will slide down with some DPVA supporting some shower activity mainly for our Southwest Indiana, West Kentucky, Southeast Illinois counties for Wednesday. Given the sharp thermal profile, added a differential mention of thunderstorms as well during the afternoon hours. By Wednesday evening, the eastern limb of the dominating High Pressure ridge in the Central U.S. begins capping development and places the WFO PAH area in a period of dry weather through at least early Sunday. The upper air pattern shifts from a brief blocking pattern to a series of differential low pressure centers in the Western and Eastern U.S., as well as the the aforementioned Hudson Bay low. The combination of all of these systems impresses and maintains ridging over the WFO Paducah forecast area. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun May 1 2016 Large area of CU/Strato-CU over the region with low VFR to MVFR cig conditions. Should continue to see bases rise through the afternoon with modest mixing gradually decreasing coverage as well. SW winds will gradually become W/NW this evening and overnight, with speeds below 10 kts. Scattered showers and storms are expected. Chances are too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Will monitor closely and update as needed. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-021000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...INCLUDING SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
131 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
KYZ009-011915-
CALLOWAY KY-
131 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALLOWAY COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM
CDT...
AT 130 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LYNNVILLE...OR 8 MILES WEST OF MURRAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MURRAY...HAZEL...NEW CONCORD...HARRIS GROVE AND CROSSLAND.
LAT...LON 3650 8849 3665 8848 3671 8808 3659 8805
3650 8805
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 259DEG 18KT 3656 8847The Paducah radar (KPAH), 66 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:33 UTC.
2 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Southwest of Murray near the community of Taylors Store, three to four very large oak trees were broken. Wires were down. The damage was along and near Highway 1828. At Midway, a ten-inch diameter tree was broken.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 626850, 626849, 626848.