A few rounds of heavy rain across central Kentucky led to river rises and minor flooding along the Rough River near Dundee.
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The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
A few rounds of heavy rain across central Kentucky led to river rises and minor flooding along the Rough River near Dundee.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 11, 4:55 AM CST, 3 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 555 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)... Issued at 230 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2016 The synoptic pattern early this morning features a couple features of note visible on water vapor imagery. One is a PV anomaly passing through the eastern Great Lakes region, and the other is a closed upper-level low over southern TX. The closed low will open into an open wave through the short term period, bringing renewed rain chances by the end of the period. The northern stream PV anomaly has helped push a cold front into TN early this morning, taking much of the shower activity with it. However, there is still some areas of drizzle/light showers, especially across southern KY which will continue through the morning hours. Otherwise, drier air will continue to slowly ooze into the region from the north today. This may be just enough to break up some of the low-level cloud cover by this afternoon across northern KY/southern IN, but think we will continue to at least see mid/high clouds. Given this, temperatures will be tricky as they likely won't go very far in the thicker/lower clouds. Will go with generally mid 60s everywhere, but there is certainly some bust potential with this. For tonight, a kicker wave over the West Coast will help to lift the TX low northward. In response, the cold front currently over TN will begin to lift back north as a warm front. The low-level jet will strengthen in response to the ejecting wave, which should promote some shower development along/north of the warm front late tonight. Moisture transport and lift aren't all that impressive, so will limit coverage to 30-50 percent. The warm front will lift well north of the region by midday Saturday. This should allow temperatures to warm easily into the 70s, with some upper 70s or even a shot at 80 possible if we are able to see some breaks in the cloud cover. However, given the deep, moist southwesterly flow do not think we will see too much sun. Guidance continue to suggest we may see some shower/storm activity within the warm sector during the afternoon hours on Saturday. Guidance tends to overdo warm sector precip and with shortwave ridging over the region, think coverage will be pretty scattered. Therefore, will continue to favor the drier solutions (ECMWF/NAM) and go with 30-40% pops for the afternoon hours. .LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2016 The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will feature amplified southerly flow over the Ohio Valley as the TX upper low approaches. However, this regime will become more zonal by the middle of next week. Even so, the pattern will still remain active as several waves push through the Ohio Valley. The main synoptic ascent associated with the PV anomaly ejecting out of TX will arrive Saturday night into Sunday. This will result in a band of showers and a few thunderstorms moving through the region. Luckily, it appears this system will be progressive enough that it shouldn't cause any significant flooding issues, despite the saturated grounds from this past system. The wave responsible for kicking out the closed low will then move through the TN Valley Sunday night into Monday. This will bring a renewed shot of some showers and a few thunderstorms. That system quickly moves out by Monday night, finally bringing a period of slightly drier weather. One final system will dig into the Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night. Ahead of it, strong/deep southwesterly flow will envelop the region. Instability will build, but a stout cap is noted on soundings. This should foster a good amount of sunshine which will allow us to mix rather deep. All this points to an overachiever in temperatures, thus have raised highs considerably for Tuesday. Think we will see a decent shot of 80 degree readings across portions of the region (especially southern KY). Guidance has come in drier for Wednesday/Thursday, thus have trended the forecast drier in this time frame. Forecast soundings suggest we will continue to mix pretty deep these days into strong winds aloft, so it will likely be breezy. After highs near 70 Wednesday, they will be cooler in the 60s on Thursday. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 553 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2016 Ceilings will continue to be the main concern for this TAF period. LEX and BWG are currently IFR and SDF MVFR. SDF and LEX are expected to rise to VFR by mid day to early afternoon. However, BWG is closer to the stalled frontal boundary, so although some improvement is expected, it looks like cigs will still remain below fuel alternate. Ceilings are expected to lower again tonight to MVFR or IFR as the front lifts back across the region as a warm front. This will also bring some showers back in early tomorrow morning. Winds today will start out of the north and shift to easterly by the afternoon to evening hours. Wind speeds should stay below 10 knots through the forecast period. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && Short Term........KJD Long Term.........KJD Aviation..........EER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 316 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-120830- ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON- FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT- OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD- FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE- GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN- LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL- CUMBERLAND-CLINTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...ORLEANS...FRENCH LICK...SALEM... SCOTTSBURG...AUSTIN...MADISON...JASPER...HUNTINGBURG...BROWNSTOWN... MILLTOWN...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY... JEFFERSONVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE... HARDINSBURG...IRVINGTON...CLOVERPORT...BRANDENBURG...MULDRAUGH... BEAVER DAM...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...RADCLIFF... FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...HILLVIEW...BROOKS... LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BUCKNER...CRESTWOOD...PEWEE VALLEY... BEDFORD...MILTON...EMINENCE...NEW CASTLE...PLEASUREVILLE... CAMPBELLSBURG...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA... TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS... CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE... WILMORE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE... LANCASTER...RICHMOND...BEREA...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE... HORSE CAVE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY... STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE... SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA... RUSSELL SPRINGS...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY 316 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 /216 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE. KD
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Rough River near Dundee went into flood during the morning hours March 11, crested at 25.2 feet during the afternoon and fell below flood stage later that evening. Flood state is 25 feet.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 622790.