Multiple rounds of thunderstorms developed in a typical warm and moist summer airmass ahead of a cool frontal boundary. The first line of storms arrived shortly after midnight, with the second moving in during the early afternoon hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms developed in a typical warm and moist summer airmass ahead of a cool frontal boundary. The first line of storms arrived shortly after midnight, with the second moving in during the early afternoon hours. Numerous trees were reported blown down, with damage to the Mountain View Drive-In movie theater also reported in Stanton.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 10:00 PM EST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and dissipate to our northwest. At this time it appears most of the action will be tracking more north of our area where there is better support or forcing. However, based on trends we could see a little better chance at some thunder in our northern most counties, generally along and north of the I64 corridor. Most recent high res models tend to support this line of thinking. Have adjusted the forecast package accordingly. Also freshened up the zone wording and gids towards latest hourly obs. UPDATE Issued at 833 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Currently watching convection to our north and west. High resolution short term models are not handling ongoing convection very well. Models are flip flopping on whether anything makes it into our area. At this time expectations are that the bulk of any convection will remain to our north. However, will watch trends over the next couple of hours and adjust the forecast as necessary. Otherwise only tweaked grids towards current trends in hourly obs for the early evening update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 336 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A series of short waves will affect the area into Thursday. The first wave has already passed to our east, and as a result most of the isolated to scattered convection this afternoon has remained to our east. However an isolated thunderstorm still cannot be ruled out for the remainder of the afternoon. The next mid level wave is over IL with convection increasing across central IN and east central IL. The expectation is that this convection will stay to our north, but will need to keep low chance probabilities in our north this evening. The third wave over MO will also ripple east overnight. Currently there is widespread convection over MO and IA which will move east into IL. Latest thinking is that the impacts from this convection will remain to our north and west, with any convection that moves into western KY diminishing as it moves east into our area later tonight. It is possible as the third mentioned wave approaches late tonight some showers or even a thunderstorm could occur by Thursday morning, but confidence is low. The best chance for shower and thunderstorm occurrence looks to be Thursday afternoon and evening as lift associated with a short wave trough, daytime heating, and the approach of a weak cold front all combine. Rain chances will then decrease during the Thursday overnight period. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 410 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 A rather zonal flow pattern is anticipated early in the period with a ridge centered over the Desert SW and Southern Plains Region and another centered near Bermuda. In between a trough will extend form the Hudson Bay region south into the Great Lakes to MS Valley regions. Within this trough, a shortwave is expected to be rotating through the Central Great Lakes with another upstream of that nearing Lake Superior and over western Ontario and other shortwave possibly nearing the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers. A cold front is expected to extend from sfc low pressure over Canada into the Eastern Great Lakes to just north of the OH River and then extending further into the Plains where it should become stationary. The initial Central Great Lakes shortwave should rotate into the St Lawrence Valley and Northeast to start the period with the next impulse upstream working into the Great Lakes Fri into Friday night. This should send the cold front south of the OH River by Friday evening and then into the area. In addition, the weaker more southern shortwave should move across the OH Valley on Friday. This should lead to a continued chance for convection from Friday into Friday night. An additional shortwave or two will also move across the area on Saturday and when combined with daytime heating will bring a continued chance for showers and a few thunderstorms especially in the southern part of the area closer to the expected position of the boundary on Saturday into Saturday evening. Uncertainty remains as some of the guidance such as the ECMWF is drier with the airmass and thus less potential for convection especially north of the TN and VA borders on Saturday. Drier air then should move into the area with the boundary likely settling south of the area for a time. Some of the most recent guidance suggests that much of Saturday night into Sunday could remain dry, but diurnally driven pops have been used for Sunday. The pattern should amplify early to middle next week with height rises across the Plains and the region gets into more a north to northwest flow pattern with diffluent flow from Monday into Tuesday. The boundary should also return north into the area MCS activity or disturbances moving around the ridge and the diffluent flow aloft will be favorable for chances of convection. Recent model runs have the ridge building into the OH Valley on Wednesday with heights rising late in the period. This should lead to decreasing chances for convection on Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 833 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 Relied heavily on persistence for tonight's forecast. In general went with VFR flight conditions through the forecast period. Exception may be SYM where some predawn mist/fog my be in the offering. Only concern will be convection to our north and west. High resolution short term models are not handling ongoing convection very well. Expectations are that the bulk of any convection will remain to our north. However, models are flip flopping on whether anything makes it into our area. Confidence is not high enough to include any mention of convection in the forecast at this time. However, will make adjustments as necessary to capture future trends. Winds will be light tonight, but pick up from the southwest at around 10 kts Thursday as a cold front approaches, along with an increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...RAY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1055 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-141100- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE... PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN... PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN... JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY... PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 1055 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HAL/SBH/RAY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1151 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016
KYZ044-050>052-140445-
ROWAN-MONTGOMERY-BATH-FLEMING-
1151 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ROWAN...MONTGOMERY...
BATH...FLEMING...
AT 1149 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR
CYNTHIANA... OR 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF GEORGETOWN...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT STERLING...MOREHEAD...FLEMINGSBURG...OWINGSVILLE...MARSHALL...
CAMARGO...SHARPSBURG...SALT LICK...FAIRVIEW...GRANGE CITY...
ELIZAVILLE...PECKS RIDGE...LOWER SPENCER...HAYS CROSSING...BETHEL...
FOXPORT...FLAT CREEK...BOURBON FURNACE...PRESTON AND ODESSA.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
105 AND 149.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3849 8359 3843 8358 3838 8345 3840 8342
3839 8340 3830 8333 3821 8330 3796 8399
3812 8408 3832 8384 3836 8388 3835 8390
3837 8390 3836 8392 3842 8395 3844 8398
3849 8393 3846 8385 3852 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 258DEG 32KT 3835 8425
GREIFThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 104 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:26 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Dispatch relayed a report of a tree blown down on Junction Road near Elizaville.
Dispatch called in a report of a large tree limb down in Camargo.
Dispatch reported several trees blown down near Science Hill.
Department of Highway officials and dispatch reported several trees down from Highway 1956 near Colony to U.S. Highway 25 near East Bernstadt.
Dispatch relayed a report of a tree down along Kentucky Highway 192 near Hightop.
A trained spotter observed damage to the concession stand and projection room roof of the Mountain View Drive-In movie theater in Stanton.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 636143, 636145, 636147, 636149, 636157, 636174.