A strong low pressure system and attendant robust cold front approached eastern Kentucky during the overnight and early morning hours of December 17th into the 18th. This caused high wind gusts preceding the front, while severe wind gusts occurred as thunderstorms moved in.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A strong low pressure system and attendant robust cold front approached eastern Kentucky during the overnight and early morning hours of December 17th into the 18th. This caused high wind gusts preceding the front, while severe wind gusts occurred as thunderstorms moved in. Sporadic damage was reported through the night due to these powerful winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 17, 10:54 PM EST, 2 hours 36 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1054 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1054 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016 Line of precip is still going strong as it makes its way toward our western and northern CWA border, with only a few isolated thunderstorms embedded within it at this time. This is timing up fairly well with the pop/weather forecast for our CWA over the next couple of hours, so did not need to update at this time. Did, however, load in the latest observations for temps, dew points, and winds, to make sure the near term grids were on track with current conditions. Expect temperatures to finally begin cooling across the western CWA as rain continues to move in over the next couple of hours. Also adjusted the wind gusts grids through the overnight to better match the ongoing conditions. All changes have been published/sent to NDFD web. UPDATE Issued at 819 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016 Continuing to monitor a line of showers and thunderstorms accompanying a cold front which is draped across western and north central KY. The line is moving eastward at a slightly slower rate than originally forecast, so tweaked POP grids throughout the night based on current radar trends and latest hi-res model data, which seems to be well on track with the current trends as well. Given the change in pops, also reran many of the weather type grids. This resulted in a slightly elongated time of freezing rain tomorrow morning compared to what was in the previous grids, since chance pops are expected to stick around a couple hours longer. Overall though, the impacts will be much in the same, with mainly elevated surfaces likely being affected. As such, don't see much change in any of the hazardous products compared to what is already in place. Also, loaded in the latest observations into the near term grids, to make sure the near term forecast was on track with ongoing conditions. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package will be sent out, in part to remove late afternoon wording, as well as to catch any potential weather changes for overnight/tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 325 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016 A sharp baroclinic zone exists over the Ohio river valley this afternoon as a cold front is working eastward across the region. Showers and storms have fired up along and just ahead of the approaching boundary in western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Deep layer shear combined with good instability just ahead of the front as prompted the issuance of a tornado watch across western Kentucky and south central Kentucky. Right now, none of our forecast area is in the watch, and would expect it to stay that way. While we do have the tremendous deep layer shear, we are missing any surface instability with our surface dewpoints sitting a good 10 degrees under those seen farther west. Thus, since storms will have an issue getting rooted in the surface, severe threat will be non-existent unless we can see dewpoints make a better recovery then we have seen thus far. Regardless, will maintain a slight chance of thunder into the late evening hours with precipitation moving into the area. Main forcing from the mid levels will slide by to our north tonight, but convergence along the front should allow for widespread rain as the front crosses eastern Kentucky late this evening into early Sunday morning. Cold air will quickly funnel back across the area as the front departs early Sunday morning with a quick changeover to sleet, freezing rain, and snow expected. However, models have trended warmer with the 12z runs and now looks like that window for frozen precipitation has shrunk. In fact, the changeover to snow happens so late, we may not see any snow accumulation. The bigger concern is the loss of ice that may occur as the deeper moisture pulls out and with temperatures falling to near or slightly below freezing, could provide a brief window of some freezing drizzle and produce some light glaze on elevated surfaces. Ground temperatures will likely be too warm to have much impact. By midday, boundary layer cools off enough to allow for mainly flurries through Sunday afternoon and evening. These flurries should wind down Sunday night as winds veer to the north. Temperatures this evening will likely continue to go up as the gradient remains up just ahead of the front. A few spots could come close to 70 just before the front moves through. Then expect a 30 to 40 degree plunge within a matter of 6 to 9 hours as the front pushes through Sunday morning. With models backing off the colder air on Sunday, temperatures may hold closer to freezing through much of the day before falling back into the 20s Sunday night. Clouds may hold tough through Sunday night. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 325 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016 The forecast period begins with surface high pressure sprawled from the southern plains northeast across the OH valley to New England, while at the mid levels there is broad troughing in the central and eastern United States. With cold surface high pressure in place the work week begins with below normal temperatures. However, as mid and upper level flow becomes more zonal and surface high pressure shifts east we will see temperatures quickly recovering to normal on Tuesday and then above normal by Wednesday. At mid week a short wave will dive into the northern plains and then move east with surface low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This will drag a cold front through KY, with the possibility of rain showers and maybe a little snow mixing in with the rain, but nothing impactful for our area. Another brief cool down follows on Friday with temperatures returning to normal. Then temperatures begin to warm again Christmas Eve as short wave energy carves out a deep trough over the western and central United States, with broad deep southwest flow over the eastern U.S. While there is fairly good model agreement through most of the week, at least as it pertains to sensible weather for our area, models begin to diverge next weekend for Christmas Eve and Christmas. Most of the differences show up beyond the day 7 forecast, but differences are significant with the ECMWF more progressive on Christmas and beyond while the GFS is slower resulting in a prolonged period of rain from Christmas into the following week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 653 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016 A cold front is headed this direction, poised to move across TAF sites between 2Z (KSYM) and 9Z (far southeast). MVFR clouds are continuing across the area ahead of this front, and should persist through much of the TAF period. A band of rain showers and thunderstorms is currently accompanying the cold front to our west, and should move into the TAF sites generally after 3Z. By this point, all storms are expected to have weakened, so only mentioned VCTS at KSME/KLOZ/and KSYM as these will be the first to be impacted and may still see some residual thunder. By the time the line of showers continues to move eastward, any remaining thunder should be gone. Some IFR conditions, namely CIGS, will be possible in the heaviest rains just along the frontal passage. As the rain begins to exit behind the front, we will likely see a brief transition to snow...sleet...or freezing rain as colder temps quickly move in. However, this will be a short duration and be done by midday. Cigs will improve back to MVFR after the frontal passage as well, and should remain here throughout the rest of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JMW
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1048 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-190700- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON... SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE... JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD... MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN... ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 1048 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND BRIDGES. LITTLE OR NO SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCE OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. KAS/JMW
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1211 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-181115- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON... SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE... JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD... MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN... ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 1211 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 ...GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT... ...TURNING WINTRY LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY... As a cold front approaches and moves across the area, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected with locally higher gusts possible over the higher elevations of Southeastern KY generally above 2000 feet. A few stronger showers and thunderstorms will also occur near the front and could also produce wind gusts as high as 35 to 50 mph. Winds of these magnitudes could down limbs, powerlines, and weakly rooted trees may also be downed. A brief period of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected on late tonight and on Sunday...mainly between 6 am and 1 pm. As temperatures fall to or slightly below freezing, a light glaze of ice may form on elevated surfaces and bridges. Little or no snow and sleet accumulations are expected. As temperatures continue to fall further below freezing into Sunday evening, some black ice may develop, leading to localized slick spots on area roads. KAS/JP
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1248 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-180630-
Rowan-Montgomery-Bath-Estill-Menifee-Fleming-Powell-
1248 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MONTGOMERY...
NORTHWESTERN MENIFEE...WEST CENTRAL ROWAN...FLEMING...NORTHWESTERN
POWELL...NORTHWESTERN ESTILL AND BATH COUNTIES...
At 1246 AM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles east of Bryan Station to 8 miles
southwest of Winchester to Richmond. Movement was northeast at 55
mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Mount Sterling, Flemingsburg, Owingsville, Marshall, Jeffersonville,
Camargo, Clay City, Sharpsburg, Salt Lick, Grange City, Elizaville,
Pecks Ridge, Lower Spencer, Bethel, Foxport, Flat Creek, Bourbon
Furnace, Preston, Odessa and Ewington.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 13 and 17.
Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers 105 and 134.
LAT...LON 3852 8363 3848 8358 3844 8358 3841 8351
3803 8354 3777 8410 3781 8408 3781 8412
3784 8411 3782 8407 3783 8400 3787 8403
3787 8402 3793 8397 3812 8408 3830 8385
3834 8384 3836 8388 3837 8392 3852 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0546Z 235DEG 47KT 3806 8429 3790 8428 3776 8429
DJSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1252 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106-108-180615-
Rowan-Montgomery-Elliott-Wolfe-Bath-Estill-Menifee-Fleming-Morgan-
Powell-
1252 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MONTGOMERY...MENIFEE...
NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...NORTHWESTERN WOLFE...ELLIOTT...ROWAN...
FLEMING...POWELL...NORTHWESTERN ESTILL AND BATH COUNTIES...
At 1252 AM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Vanceburg to near Brandy to Stanton.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Mount Sterling, Morehead, Stanton, Flemingsburg, Owingsville, Sandy
Hook, Frenchburg, Marshall, Henry, Jeffersonville, Camargo, Clay
City, Wellington, Salt Lick, Campsites in the Indian Creek area of
the Daniel Boone National Forest, Grange City, Vaughns Mill, Pecks
Ridge, Lower Spencer and Stoll.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 13 and 36.
Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers 109 and 148.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3849 8359 3843 8358 3838 8345 3840 8341
3819 8327 3827 8317 3818 8305 3821 8301
3817 8298 3780 8344 3777 8410 3778 8411
3785 8406 3784 8400 3787 8403 3787 8402
3793 8397 3799 8400 3849 8377 3852 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 0552Z 242DEG 40KT 3863 8330 3813 8344 3785 8386
JPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
101 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016
KYZ068-079-080-180630-
Rockcastle-Laurel-Pulaski-
101 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LAUREL...CENTRAL
PULASKI AND ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...
At 101 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Stab, or 10
miles southeast of Liberty, moving east at 50 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Somerset, Mount Vernon, Boone, Science Hill, Ottowa, Bent, Bernstadt,
Wellhope, Orlando, Quail, Magnum, Lake Linville, Muellersville, Level
Green, Shopville, Roundstone, Bandy, Hogue, Dudley Station and
Wildie.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile markers 48 and
72.
Kentucky Highway 80 in Laurel County between mile markers 1 and 7.
Kentucky Highway 80 in Pulaski County between mile markers 17 and
40.
Louis B. Nunn Parkway
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3736 8456 3733 8451 3748 8445 3747 8438
3750 8435 3754 8435 3754 8432 3707 8414
3710 8490 3711 8490
TIME...MOT...LOC 0601Z 256DEG 55KT 3722 8478
JPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
119 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016
KYZ051-052-060-104-106-109-180645-
Rowan-Elliott-Bath-Menifee-Morgan-Magoffin-
119 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MENIFEE...MORGAN...
NORTHWESTERN MAGOFFIN...ELLIOTT...ROWAN AND SOUTHEASTERN BATH
COUNTIES...
At 119 AM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Gesling to Crix to near Mariba. Movement
was east at 40 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Morehead, West Liberty, Sandy Hook, Frenchburg, Henry, Lewis,
Wellington, Campsites in the Indian Creek area of the Daniel Boone
National Forest, Gordon Ford, White Oak, Stoll, Bruin, Lenox, Blaze,
Vale, Plutarch, Liberty Road, Denniston, Panama and Mize.
THIS INCLUDES Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers
134 and 148.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3821 8330 3819 8326 3827 8317 3818 8305
3821 8301 3817 8298 3818 8292 3816 8291
3805 8295 3804 8299 3800 8302 3796 8300
3781 8309 3783 8345 3786 8349 3784 8352
3785 8367 3787 8370 3822 8353 3834 8337
TIME...MOT...LOC 0619Z 259DEG 34KT 3841 8310 3817 8338 3788 8358
JPSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
127 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016
KYZ051-052-058>060-069-104-106-108-111-112-114-180700-
Jackson-Rowan-Lee-Owsley-Elliott-Wolfe-Bath-Estill-Menifee-Morgan-
Powell-Breathitt-
127 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MENIFEE...MORGAN...
WOLFE...NORTHWESTERN OWSLEY...NORTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN
BREATHITT...ELLIOTT...LEE...ROWAN...SOUTHEASTERN POWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN ESTILL AND SOUTHEASTERN BATH COUNTIES...
At 127 AM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Gates to Natural Bridge S.p. to Sand
Springs. Movement was east at 40 mph.
Winds in excess of 45 mph are possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Morehead, West Liberty, Beattyville, Sandy Hook, Frenchburg, Campton,
Henry, Lewis, Fincastle, Wellington, Campsites in the Indian Creek
area of the Daniel Boone National Forest, Gordon Ford, Lane,
Cressmont, Stoll, Vada, Ida May, St. Helens, Koomer Ridge Campground
and Bruin.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 31 and 62.
Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers 138 and 148.
LAT...LON 3821 8330 3819 8326 3820 8323 3824 8322
3827 8317 3823 8309 3818 8305 3820 8304
3821 8301 3817 8298 3817 8295 3784 8317
3751 8357 3747 8411 3775 8378 3830 8340
3831 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 0627Z 259DEG 35KT 3825 8338 3777 8371 3754 8398
DJThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:52 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind, 1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Dispatch relayed a report of a tree down along Barbourville Road southeast of London as a strong wind gust occurred ahead of a potent cold front.
Dispatch reported a tree down on Kentucky Highway 1546 about one half of a mile west of Kentucky Highway 90 southwest of Monticello.
Dispatch relayed a report of a tree down on a residence in London.
Dispatch reported that the KFC and City National Bank signs were destroyed in Paintsville. Several trees were also blown down in and near town.
Dispatch relayed a report of a tree down on Cotton Bend Road northeast of Manchester.
Public citizens reported a few large pine trees blown down and snapped from near Coldiron to Putney.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 664030, 664032, 664033, 664034, 664035, 664036.