Thunderstorms with heavy rain developed ahead of a weak cold front.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with heavy rain developed ahead of a weak cold front.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 17, 8:43 AM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 943 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An area of convergent flow in a moist airmass will keep an increased chance of showers along a now nebulous front oriented along the I-71 corridor this morning. This area will move southeast today and a relative lull in activity is expected through early Saturday. More widespread storms will again occur later Saturday ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Sunday, finally providing an actual dry and more comfortable stretch of weather to the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Widespread pcpn is working its way across primarily southern portions of our fa this morning. This is associated with a nice 850-700 mb deformation axis that is forecast to shift off to the east/southeast of us through the afternoon hours. Thus, expect to see the more widespread pcpn gradually taper off from west to east as we head through late morning and on into this afternoon. Will then just hang on to some low chances for pcpn through the rest of the afternoon as forcing is weak and instability may be limited. With PWs still up around 2 inches, some locally heavy rainfall will still be possible today. Will stick with highs generally in the low 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Drier conditions will filter in tonight as upper level flow shifts the systems eastward yet does not have enough to scour the airmass out. Slightly drier airmass will be found over the region starting Wednesday night and continuing through the Friday night. PWAT values will still be 1.5" or so and with any daytime heating, storms cannot be ruled out entirely for any late day period, with a possible exception of Thursday where storms should remain out of the CWA due to a lack of any real forcing mechanism. Friday storm coverage will still be isolated to scattered in nature in a continued nebulous pattern. Overnight lows will bottom out in the upper 60s and highs will reach the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... By Thursday morning, the upper-level weather pattern across the CONUS will be flattening out, and the greatest of the deep moisture over the southeastern states will be shunted a little further to the south, and not directly over the Ohio Valley. However, surface ridging will remain in place, keeping a generally warm and moist pattern from completely exiting the region. This will lead to a lower overall chance of precipitation, but very little change in daily temperatures and dewpoints going into the weekend. Weak convective precipitation appears possible on Thursday, mainly in the northern sections of the CWA. Increasing moisture from the south late in the day on Friday will result in chances of precipitation again, though mainly in the southern half of the forecast area late in the day. A wetter pattern will again set up over the weekend, as a large upper trough deepens over the central states. There is solid model agreement in an increased chance of showers and storms on both Saturday and Sunday, but there remain some timing differences regarding the eventual passage of a cold front (along with a surface low moving through the Great Lakes). While the 12Z GFS is still notably quicker than the 12Z ECMWF, both models have shifted a little toward a common mean, suggesting that the greatest potential for precipitation may be early on Sunday. Surface high pressure is expected to move in behind the cold front, with drier conditions for Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Moisture continues to lift up the stalled frontal boundary over the region. Pcpn overnight has been light and generally spotting. Models lift the convection down by SDF ne this morning, generally running it along I-71. Pcpn should affect the majority of the tafs through the morning hours. Since there is lighting in the convection attm, carried VCTS for KCVG/KLUK and KILN. CIGS have been all over the place, bouncing from vfr to ifr and back. Time sections are still trying to show very low cigs this morning. For locations that are vfr, brought cigs down to mvfr in the pcpn this morning, but confidence is low on exactly where they will set up. There could be some lingering showers this afternoon before the pcpn gets shunted eastward along with H5 vorticity maxima. The cigs will gradually rise in the afternoon, with the tafs reaching vfr conditions between 21-00Z. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Sites
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 945 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-070-181345- WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE- SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON- FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-BUTLER- 945 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088-181345- RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON- CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS- FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON- CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO- 945 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1005 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0955 AM FLOOD VERSAILLES 39.06N 85.26W
08/17/2016 RIPLEY IN LAW ENFORCEMENT
HIGH WATER REPORTED ON A FEW ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1007 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0957 AM FLOOD LAWRENCEBURG 39.09N 84.86W
08/17/2016 DEARBORN IN LAW ENFORCEMENT
HIGH WATER REPORTED ON US 50.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1019 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1016 AM FLOOD 4 SW DEER PARK 39.16N 84.45W
08/17/2016 HAMILTON OH PUBLIC
HIGH WATER REPORTED ACROSS THE NORWOOD LATERAL NEAR
MONTGOMERY ROAD.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1025 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1016 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNE MELBOURNE 39.09N 84.34W
08/17/2016 M1.20 INCH HAMILTON OH TRAINED SPOTTER
FELL IN 45 MINUTES.
&&The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 71 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:01 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A mudslide was reported on I-275 East at mile marker 76.4.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 645405.