Flood and Hail in Kansas, May 29 to 30, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
255 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Elevated showers and storms may develop this morning as a subtle
area of H85 moisture transport noses into Southern Kansas ahead
of a subtle shortwave trough approaching from the Southern Rockies.
Confidence in timing/coverage remains fairly low and maintained
low pops across much of the area through the day. Any activity
developing over Central KS this afternoon/evening may spread
eastward across South Central Kansas tonight although confidence
in coverage remains fairly low. Another mild day is anticipated
with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Monday-Tuesday...We may see a break in the action on Monday although
the airmass is progged to become quite unstable during the afternoon
hours. The primary focus for storm development will be the dryline
which is progged to remain well west of the area across the High
Plains of Western Kansas. Due to weak cinh...we may still see a
diurnally driven storm or two, so pops were trended down across the
area. Better chances for deep moist convection may arrive across
Central KS Monday night as the LLJ/H85 moisture transport ramps up
once again. By late Tuesday...a shortwave trough moving over the
Northern Plains will drive a cold front south bringing increasing
chances for deep moist convection through Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A dry post-frontal regime will develop across the area on
Wednesday and persist through the remainder of the period. Highs
will remain below normal through the remainder of the work week
with readings in the 70s. Another frontal passage is expected on
the weekend which may bring a brief round of showers and storms
but confidence in timing remains too low to mention at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites across Central/South
Central Kansas for the next 24hrs. Meanwhile some mid-level clouds
will spread into South Central Kansas Sunday morning and early
afternoon. Also could see a few showers/storms over South Central
Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  61  82  63 /  30  30  30  30
Hutchinson      80  60  81  62 /  30  30  30  30
Newton          81  61  81  62 /  30  30  30  30
ElDorado        82  63  81  63 /  30  30  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   82  63  81  64 /  40  30  30  30
Russell         80  57  81  60 /  30  30  30  50
Great Bend      82  58  81  61 /  30  30  30  40
Salina          82  59  83  62 /  30  30  30  40
McPherson       81  59  81  62 /  30  30  30  40
Coffeyville     84  64  82  64 /  30  30  30  30
Chanute         83  64  82  63 /  30  30  30  30
Iola            83  64  82  63 /  30  30  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    84  64  82  63 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
446 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-301000-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
446 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS RIVERS...STREAMS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS REMAIN IN FLOOD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG STORM OR TWO
WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME RIVER FLOODING WILL LINGER INTO THE WORK WEEK...CONTINUE TO
CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

KSZ067-083-291715-
SEDGWICK KS-RENO KS-
1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN RENO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1147 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ANDALE...OR NEAR MOUNT HOPE...
  MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  COLWICH...HAVEN...MOUNT HOPE...ANDALE...BENTLEY AND CHENEY LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 9781 3791 9744 3773 9755 3773 9778
TIME...MOT...LOC 1647Z 202DEG 13KT 3780 9766

HOWERTON