Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, July 14, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
311 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

West-northwesterly mid to high level flow, a stalled out frontal
boundary, moist low level upslope flow on the cool side of the
front and plenty of instability is a prescription for periodic
thunderstorm clusters in the summer. This pattern will continue
through Friday before upper level ridging builds across the
central plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Thunderstorms will be ongoing across central and parts of
southwest Kansas this morning as weak shortwave trough passes.
There could be a rejuvenation of storms this afternoon
if the lower levels recover from this morning's stabilizing cool
thunderstorm outflow. If surface based thunderstorms develop with
daytime heating, then these could be severe with very large hail
and possibly even a tornado or two based on the strongly veering
wind profile. However, there is tremendous uncertainty in this
scenario and much more will be known by mid-morning as overnight
thunderstorms die off. Highs today are problematic due to
uncertainty with degree of cool thunderstorm outflow this morning.
Highs should be mostly in the 80s, with some readings near 90
along the Oklahoma state line where the affects of morning
convection will be less.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Another thunderstorm cluster is possible Friday evening as west-
northwesterly mid level flow persists. These could be severe as
well but the details of this event will be strongly modulated by
what happens with the lower level airmass leading up to Friday. A
warming trend can be expected with highs climbing well into the
90s for the weekend with very small chances for thunderstorms
Saturday. Next week looks mainly dry with temperatures from 95 to
100 degrees just about every day. Some readings over 100 degrees
are possible later next week after the ground dries out well from
previous rains and humidity levels gradually go down. However,
given the relative wetness we have seen this spring and early
summer, reaching well over 100 degrees may continue to be hard to
obtain in places like Dodge City and Garden City unless we can
achieve over a solid week without rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Low level moist easterly upslope flow will continue through the
period. There is a chance of thunderstorms at the TAF sites after
08z. VFR conditions can be expected outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  65  86  66 /  40  40  40  50
GCK  88  64  86  66 /  30  20  40  50
EHA  93  64  88  65 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  91  65  88  66 /  40  30  30  30
HYS  85  65  86  66 /  80  30  40  40
P28  89  69  88  68 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
414 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-150915-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
414 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016 /314 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THESE STORMS COULD BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 60 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL FROM QUARTER TO
GOLFBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
506 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

KSZ063-076-077-141100-
FINNEY KS-GRAY KS-HASKELL KS-
506 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FINNEY...GRAY AND NORTHERN
HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

AT 505 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
VERY NEAR PIERCEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. OTHER STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF GARDEN CITY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARDEN CITY...CIMARRON...HOLCOMB...PIERCEVILLE...INGALLS...ENSIGN...
CHARLESTON...PLYMELL AND KALVESTA.

LAT...LON 3764 10101 3823 10103 3824 10025 3765 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1005Z 244DEG 30KT 3788 10065

KRUSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
512 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

KSZ061-062-141045-
KEARNY KS-HAMILTON KS-
512 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HAMILTON AND NORTHERN
KEARNY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT/445 AM MDT/...

AT 511 AM CDT/411 AM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTH OF TRIBUNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NORTH OF LAKIN INTO
NORTHERN KEARNY COUNTY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEERFIELD.

LAT...LON 3826 10204 3826 10112 3798 10111 3818 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1011Z 243DEG 21KT 3824 10180

KRUSE