A line of thunderstorms developed across portions of western Kansas a quickly pushed eastward throughout the afternoon. A few strong wind reports upwards of 60 mph were reported across the state.
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The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorms developed across portions of western Kansas a quickly pushed eastward throughout the afternoon. A few strong wind reports upwards of 60 mph were reported across the state.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 25, 11:48 AM CST, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Topeka KS 1148 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 A very dynamic system is beginning to take shape as 09Z water vapor imagery shows the base of an upper trough beginning to lift out from the four corners region with a negative tilt. In response, a surface low continues to deepen over the central high plains in the lee of the Rockies. The falling low pressure is causing strong low level warm air advection into the central plains with surface OBs showing moisture surging north through TX and OK with the warm front across northern OK. The forecast for today and tonight is for the most part unchanged from previous thinking. While the warm front remains to the south of the forecast area, patchy dense fog should linger as moisture advects into the relatively cooler airmass. Although think visibilities may now be as bad as they are going to get since boundary layer mixing is expected to increase through the morning with a strengthening low level jet moving into the area. Elevated showers and storms are still expected to develop this morning as models continue to show good isentropic upglide to go along with the moisture advection. Convection allowing models have been consistent in developing widely scattered precip by 12Z. As the storm system lifts to the northwest of the forecast area, a narrow line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on a dryline and sweep east through the forecast area. Models prog lapse rates to actually shallow up ahead of the dryline, and with the expansive stratus already coving the warm sector, destabilization from daytime heating looks unlikely. Because of this instability is progged to only be around 500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is expected to be quite robust with 0-6km shear up to 75KT. With the limited instability, am wondering whether any updraft would be able to maintain itself long enough to pose much of a severe weather threat. Nevertheless the magnitude of the wind shear and energy within the storm system raises concern for an isolated damaging wind gust or possible brief tornado. With the increasing pressure gradient today, think winds across north central KS could be sustained at 30 MPH for a few hours. Therefore will go ahead and issue a wind advisory for basically the western half of the forecast area. It stronger winds gusts are able to mix to the surface, the day shift may need to expand the advisory. But forecast soundings indicated very shallow low level lapse rates due to the lack of insolation so I don't have enough confidence in the stronger winds mixing to the surface at this time. As for the dense fog advisory, there are a few spots with visibilities of a half mile or less. So will keep the fog advisory going for now until more sites show improving visibilities. Although I don't expect widespread dense fog to be a major impact. Highs today are expected to make it into the lower and middle 60s just based on warm air advection. Models show any cold air advection tonight holding off until late, with the bulk of cold air advection remaining mainly north of KS. So lows tonight should only fall into the upper 20s and middle 30s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Much lighter surface winds on Monday as a sfc ridge axis builds eastward into the area. The modified Pacific airmass cools highs Monday back to normal values in the 40s under clear skies. Strong radiational cooling at night cools lows into the upper 20s. Ample sunshine and some increasing waa by Wednesday warm highs into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday before both the GFS and ECMWF similarly bring in a weak cool front late Wednesday. While much of the upper jet is focused across the northern conus, southern stream ridging gradually breaks down by the end of the week, bringing in a shortwave trough on New Years Eve. Currently, the GFS is faster with a cold front and would favor rain as opposed to the colder solution from the ECMWF. Have mentioned a slight chance rain and snow mix for this time in our east central counties. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016 Southerly winds will increase to 20 to 28 KTS with gusts to 40 KTS this afternoon. A line of showers and storms will move through the Terminals between 20Z to 23Z, this line may produce some wind gusts of 45 to 50 KTS. Once the line moves through winds will switch to the southwest and gradually diminish through the evening hours. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ008-009- 020>022-034>038-054. && SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Prieto AVIATION...Gargan
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 1003 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2016 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-261615- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 1003 AM CST SUN DEC 25 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND QUICKLY PUSHES EASTWARD. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AROUND NOON...ENTERING EAST CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Topeka KS 104 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016 KSZ008-020-034-251930- Ottawa-Cloud-Republic- 104 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REPUBLIC...CLOUD AND OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CST... At 102 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Bostwick to 5 miles west of Superior to 6 miles west of Brookville. Movement was northeast at 60 mph. Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Concordia, Minneapolis, Belleville, Bennington, Glasco, Scandia, Delphos, Tescott, Jamestown, Courtland, Norway, Culver, Wells, Republic, Munden, Aurora and Ada. A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 PM CST for north central Kansas. LAT...LON 4000 9753 3896 9750 3896 9793 4000 9793 TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 204DEG 69KT 4000 9820 3955 9805 3877 9798 Gargan
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 71 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:23 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trained spotter estimated wind speeds of 60 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 672736.