Two mesoscale convective vortices (MCV) moved into northern Indiana during the afternoon hours, interacting with mixed layer CAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/KG and marginal shear of 25 to 35 knots. Multi-cell structures developed with occasional core collapses causing sporadic wind damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
Two mesoscale convective vortices (MCV) moved into northern Indiana during the afternoon hours, interacting with mixed layer CAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/KG and marginal shear of 25 to 35 knots. Multi-cell structures developed with occasional core collapses causing sporadic wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 17, 2:24 PM EST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 324 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2016 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into this evening mainly near and north of U.S. highway 30. There is a chance of thunderstorms south of this area. A few stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail are possible but widespread severe weather is not expected. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 60s. Similar weather is expected Thursday with a small chance for afternoon showers and storms. Highs will be in the middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2016 Two primary short waves being watched for convection this evening. First can be seen nicely on VIS imagery moving across lower Michigan. This wave has been responsible for generating some thunderstorms which have hugged our CWA boundary with KGRR. Mesoanalysis shows modest instability with 1500-2000 j/kg mixed layer CAPE and deeper bulk shear values around 20-30 knots. Just enough instability and shear to note stronger updrafts and potential downdrafts with 40-60 mph isolated gusts possible along with some small hail. So far storms have struggled but expect a slight uptick in development and strength rest of afternoon and early evening as a secondary weak short wave over northern Illinois propagates east and helps enhance convection. Already seeing this to some degree over northeast IL. Do not expect widespread coverage given limited low level convergence and no strong forcing. Good low level lapse rates and weak convergence will be the focus. Hires guidance keeps pointing to weak remnant surface boundary sinking south overnight and some possible isolated development in our far southwest. Kept a slight chance in the west until late tonight for this possibility. Similar situation on Thursday with dirty flow aloft carrying weak short waves across the area with modest instability and even slightly weaker deep layer shear. Low chance pops continue with models showing varying solutions for development and coverage. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2016 More of the same for Friday with weak short waves and instability present so continued trend of afternoon low chance pops. Best chance for showers and storms arrives later Saturday into Saturday night ahead of strong short wave and cold front which will usher in cooler and more comfortable air. Sharp short wave trough expected to drop south out of Canada into Northern Plains Friday. This will lead to surface low development along cold front. Low will deepen and move into the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday as short wave drives cold front into our area. Still a bit too early for severe weather assessment but certainly possible given regime change and stronger westerlies sinking southward. Instability still in question with timing and amount of cloud cover. Will be something to watch but for now likely pops for showers and thunderstorms. Moderate rainfall possible given Gulf of Mexico tap but certainly nothing like what NW Indiana saw Monday. Cooler air arrives Sunday into early next week. Northwest winds on Sunday likely to produce a moderate to high swim risk day. Highs look to remain in the lower to middle 70s Sunday and Monday with return to upper 70s and low 80s by mid week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 137 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2016 Afternoon instability combined with an approaching shortwave aloft has led to cumulus development across much of the area, with primarily VFR conditions. The shortwave has managed to generate a few showers and thunderstorms, particularly to the north of the TAF sites in Lower Michigan, however-as of 18z development over Indiana has been non-existent. Models are still in disagreement over shower/storm development at this point-but it's not out of the question. For now left it out of the TAF given low confidence, but will continue to closely monitor. Otherwise, the focus turns to fog development again tonight. Winds will again be light with lingering low level moisture-so thinking things will be similar to last night. Guidance is not as pessimistic on ceiling heights, but they bring visibilities down to around 1 mile or less between 8-12Z. For now kept things IFR, with visibilities down to 2 miles at KSBN where conditions look most favorable and 3 miles at FWA. LIFR conditions are certainly in the realm of possibilities but will leave out until the next TAF issuance where we can re- evaluate. && .IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...MCD/Lashley SHORT TERM...Lashley LONG TERM...Lashley AVIATION...MCD Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 359 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 INZ003>009-012-014-016-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-182000- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE- MARSHALL-KOSCIUSKO-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE- WILLIAMS-FULTON OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE... LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE... LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON... BASS LAKE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE... SYRACUSE...MENTONE...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH... FAIR PLAIN...BENTON HEIGHTS...BUCHANAN...PAW PAW LAKE...DOWAGIAC... CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON... MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...JONESVILLE...LITCHFIELD... BRYAN...MONTPELIER...EDGERTON...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...SWANTON...DELTA 359 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 /259 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA... SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KNOX TO DEKLAB INDIANA TO NAPOLEON OHIO. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG SOME RIVERS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH BEND TO NORTH OF PLYMOUTH DUE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, AND ALSO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX INZ013-015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ004-005-015-016-024-025- 182000- PULASKI-FULTON IN-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH- HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING- PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE... ROCHESTER...AKRON...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY... FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...MONON...BROOKSTON... LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN... DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY... MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE... NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...PAYNE... OTTAWA...LEIPSIC...COLUMBUS GROVE...CONTINENTAL...PANDORA... VAN WERT...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE 359 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 /259 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN INDIANA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, AND ALSO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX LMZ043-046-182000- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- 359 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, AND ALSO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
203 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016
INZ003-171945-
LA PORTE-
203 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LA PORTE COUNTY...
AT 201 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BEVERLY
SHORES... OR NEAR MICHIGAN CITY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...TRAIL CREEK...LONG BEACH...
POTTAWATTAMIE PARK...PINOLA...WATERFORD...SPRINGVILLE...
OTIS AND POTTAWATTOMIE PARK.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 80 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 38 AND 55.
INTERSTATE 94 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 33 AND 44.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
LAT...LON 4171 8693 4172 8691 4173 8691 4174 8692
4175 8664 4155 8662 4159 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 268DEG 22KT 4168 8698
MARSILISPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
319 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016
MIZ078-171945-
CASS-
319 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY...
AT 318 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
EDWARDSBURG...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SIMONTON LAKE...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CASSOPOLIS...EDWARDSBURG...UNION...VANDALIA...DONNELL LAKE...
EAGLE LAKE...JONES...DAILEY...JUNO LAKE...DIAMOND LAKE...
ADAMSVILLE...CALVIN CENTER...SHAVEHEAD LAKE AND PARADISE LAKE.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM THAT MAY
RESULT IN SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
LAT...LON 4180 8576 4179 8577 4178 8579 4176 8579
4176 8583 4179 8614 4189 8613 4193 8576
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 268DEG 17KT 4185 8605
MARSILISPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
347 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016
INZ003-004-172015-
ST. JOSEPH-LA PORTE-
347 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOSEPH
AND CENTRAL LA PORTE COUNTIES...
AT 347 PM EDT/247 PM CDT/...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW CARLISLE
TO LA PORTE TO NEAR WESTVILLE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LA PORTE...WESTVILLE...WALKERTON...NORTH LIBERTY...KINGSFORD
HEIGHTS...
KINGSBURY...SOUTH CENTER...SALEM
HEIGHTS...BYRON...WATERFORD...PINHOOK...
ROLLING PRARIE...FISH LAKE...PINOLA...CRUMSTOWN...STILLWELL...OTIS
AND
TRACY.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 80 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 38 AND 53.
INTERSTATE 94 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 35 AND 36.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
LAT...LON 4163 8693 4167 8687 4169 8660 4157 8622
4148 8646 4148 8647 4147 8647 4143 8657
4143 8659 4155 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 286DEG 21KT 4166 8662 4162 8674 4158 8695
MARSILISPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 350 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 MIZ080-172030- BRANCH- 350 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BRANCH COUNTY... AT 350 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF COLON...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF BATTLE CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... COLDWATER...UNION CITY...GIRARD...SHERWOOD AND HODUNK. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 69 IN MICHIGAN BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 19 AND 21. LAT...LON 4193 8504 4201 8529 4207 8529 4207 8495 TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 284DEG 20KT 4206 8531 MARSILI
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 408 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 INZ005-006-172100- LAGRANGE-ELKHART- 408 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ELKHART AND NORTHWESTERN LAGRANGE COUNTIES... AT 408 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRISTOL...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUNLAP...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MIDDLEBURY...BRISTOL...SCOTT...SHIPSHEWANA AND EMMA. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 101 AND 120. LAT...LON 4176 8543 4158 8555 4169 8584 4176 8579 TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 281DEG 17KT 4173 8576 MARSILI
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 64 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:23 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down onto a house with power lines also down in the area.
Several trees were blown down in the Barbee Lakes area.
Emergency management officials reported 12 to 16 inch diameter tree limbs down near Wilkerson and First Streets.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 659047, 659048, 659049.